To understand the forces shaping American politics, one state will be impossible to overlook in 2022: Georgia.
The Peach State will offer the biggest litmus test yet of former US president Donald Trumps grip on the Republican party, and the persistence of his false claims of election fraud, as well as a guide to whether Democrats can expect the nation to move in their direction.
It will also offer something of a laboratory experiment for new voting restrictions and the threat they pose to democracy.
Georgia enters into the realm of Florida 2000, Ohio 2004, Pennsylvania 2020 as the pivotal state, said John Zogby, an author and pollster. Itll be a benchmark for 2024. Its important demographically because its in a state of balance right now. Its having its moment.
The southern, socially conservative state was a bulwark of the Confederacy during the civil war. But it is now home to a film industry dubbed the the Hollywood of the south. It produced Congressman John Lewis, a civil rights hero. But it also produced Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, a far-right conspiracy theorist.
Its outsized role came into focus last year when Joe Biden became the first Democratic presidential nominee to win it since Bill Clinton in 1992. Then, in January, Democrats won two Senate runoff elections, giving Biden an unexpected majority and dramatically scaling up his ambitions.
Now the plotlines that have dominated US politics for the past decade are set to converge in Georgia again. Trump supporters have turned out in force at local Republican meetings and sought to gain control of the state party apparatus, purging officials deemed insufficiently loyal.
The ex-president has also inspired a slate of devotees to seek statewide office including former senator David Perdue, who this week launched a challenge against incumbent Republican governor Brian Kemp.
Trump has fumed against Kemp over the governors refusal to overturn the election results last year, even after several recounts and audits affirmed Bidens victory.
Perdue has immediately grabbed on to the mantle of baseless election lies, telling Axios this week he would not have voted to certify the election, then joining a lawsuit seeking to prove he and Trump were cheated out of election victories. Kemp said last year he was required by law to certify the election.
The former president called Kemp a very weak governor in a statement endorsing Perdue on Monday, citing nothing specific in his opposition to the sitting governor apart from his position on election integrity. Most importantly, Trump said of Kemp, he cant win because the MAGA [Make America great again] base which is enormous will never vote for him.
If he is proven wrong and Kemp prevails, it would be a humiliating defeat for Trump, offering a sign his influence over the Republican party is slipping. Such a rebuke might even help dissuade him from running for president again in 2024.
Eric Erickson, a conservative writer and radio host based in Georgia, said: It certainly would impact his electoral college map in 2024 and it would definitely suggest that the voters are ready to move on. When you look at the polling, I think people are looking towards 2024 and maybe theyre ready to look at the future instead of the past.
The primary for governor is not the only battle here with wider implications. Trump is backing former football star Herschel Walker in a Republican primary against state agriculture commissioner Gary Black. The winner will go forward to challenge Warnock.
Lower down the ballot there is also a high stakes election for secretary of state, Georgias top election official. Trump has endorsed Jody Hice, a congressman, in his bid to oust fellow Republican Brad Raffensperger from the secretary of states office. Trump has attacked Raffensperger ever since he refused to go along with the then presidents request to find enough votes to overturn the election.
Robert P Jones, chief executive and founder of the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI), said: Weve got basically a Maga versus chamber of commerce battle going on and what makes it particularly poignant is the role that governor Brian Kemp and secretary of state Brad Raffensperger played in the last presidential election.
They were two Republicans that stood on the side of democracy and resisted Donald Trumps request to overthrow the fair results of the election. In that way, theyve theyve been put in the crosshairs by Trump and are being challenged from the right by David Perdue on the one hand and Jody Hice on the other, both of whom have repeated this big lie that Trump actually won in Georgia.
Theyre essentially running on this Make America great again big lie, so itll be a real test to see how that plays out among Republicans in the primaries before you even get to the general election.
Which ever Republican candidate for governor emerges from months of infighting they will still have to face Democrat Stacey Abrams, a voting rights activist bidding to become the first Black female governor in American history.
Abrams narrowly lost to Kemp in 2018 in what proved a flashpoint election. It was a contest that encapsulated how Georgia is changing Abrams, vying to be the first female Black governor in US history, symbolized a new progressive Georgia, while Kemp represented the old conservative guard.
Such trends surfaced again in January when Democrats Raphael Warnock, who is African American, and Jon Ossoff, who is Jewish, defeated Kelly Loeffler and Perdue, both of whom are white.
Jones, who was born in Atlanta, Georgia, added: Whats also at play here is the changing face of the country and the kind of candidates that might represent the way the demographics are changing.
If you go back to right before the 2008 election, Georgia was 53% white and Christian. Today its 41% white and Christian. Just between the beginning when Barack Obama was running and today, things have changed quite dramatically. It also has this urban-rural divide that so many states, particularly southern and peripheral south states, have: Atlanta and its suburbs versus the rest of the more rural state.
Just as she did in 2018, Abrams is likely to make voting rights a central issue. During that campaign, she highlighted serious election issues in Georgia, including the way the state was disproportionately flagging Black voters for potential removal from the rolls and a surge in polling place closures in the state.
Now the stakes around voting rights are even higher.
In March, Georgia Republicans enacted sweeping new voting restrictions, even though there was no evidence of fraud in the 2020 election. The new law gives voters less time to request an absentee ballot and requires them to provide information from a state ID on both the ballot request and ballot itself.
It also limits the use of ballot drop boxes to one box per 100,000 voters, and only allows them to be in use during early voting hours. The boxes were used for the first time in 2020, when they proved popular and were available 24/7. The new law adds an additional day of Saturday early voting and makes Sunday early voting optional.
Kemp has staunchly defended the measure, even as the state faced enormous pressure from Major League Baseball and other companies. The justice department and several other civic action groups are currently suing Georgia over the law.
Helen Butler, a longtime organizer in Georgia, said she is already seeing the effects of the new voting law on the ground there. During municipal elections earlier this year, she said her group, the Georgia Coalition for the Peoples Agenda, had seen an uptick in people who wanted rides to the polls because they were wary of using an absentee ballot.
The new law also limited what kind of assistance her group could give voters with mail-in ballots, she said. Were tired of always seeing barriers put in place to us being able to exercise our right to vote.
Events in Georgia will be closely watched elsewhere. Trump has endorsed more than 60 midterm candidates across the country, including several running against Republican incumbents. Some strategists fear he could sabotage his own party as it seeks to regain the House and Senate. Democrats, meanwhile, have tried to learn from Abrams ability to generate enthusiasm.
Andra Gillespie, an associate professor of political science at Emory University in Atlanta, said: There is a very real story in Georgia about Stacey Abrams organising and finding the Democratic voters and getting what people to turn out and vote. It was a story that started well before the 2018 cycle.
Shes going to want to try to continue to build on that momentum but what shes facing is that Republicans know thats what shes doing. They are aware that shes probably the best in the business at being able to get people to turn out to vote and they are going to match those efforts with their own get-out-their-own effort.
Read more:
Its having its moment: Georgia to offer litmus test for Trump and Democrats - The Guardian
- David Ditch: Uncle Sam is picking your pocket with high taxes Democrats want to raise them even higher - Fox News [Last Updated On: December 27th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 27th, 2019]
- 2020 Democrats are naming their fundraising 'bundlers' - Columbian.com - The Columbian [Last Updated On: December 27th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 27th, 2019]
- Democrats Sparred Over a Wine Cave Fund-Raiser. Its Billionaire Owner Isnt Pleased. - The New York Times [Last Updated On: December 27th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 27th, 2019]
- Education Spending: What Democratic Candidates Want vs. Reality, in Charts - Education Week [Last Updated On: December 27th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 27th, 2019]
- Democratic leadership should be afraid of McKayla Wilkes - The Week [Last Updated On: December 27th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 27th, 2019]
- Editorial: Democrats are pushing the right fix to a Trump tax law - San Francisco Chronicle [Last Updated On: December 27th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 27th, 2019]
- The biggest state feels the most excluded in the Democratic race - CNN [Last Updated On: December 27th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 27th, 2019]
- Illinois provides the Democrats with a Midwestern base: The Flyover - cleveland.com [Last Updated On: December 27th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 27th, 2019]
- Mike Bloomberg is trying to convince big-money Democratic donors that he can win in 2020, even though he isn't taking their money - CNBC [Last Updated On: December 27th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 27th, 2019]
- Wine Caves and Purity Tests in Democratic Politics - The New York Times [Last Updated On: December 27th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 27th, 2019]
- House GOP vows to use impeachment to cut into Democratic majority | TheHill - The Hill [Last Updated On: December 27th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 27th, 2019]
- Democrats Who Flipped Seats in 2018 Have a 2020 Playbook: Focus on Drug Costs - The New York Times [Last Updated On: December 27th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 27th, 2019]
- A decade of Obamacare: How health care went from wrecking to boosting Democrats - CNBC [Last Updated On: December 27th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 27th, 2019]
- Democrats need to accept these 3 truths to beat Trump in 2020 - CNBC [Last Updated On: December 27th, 2019] [Originally Added On: December 27th, 2019]
- What if Democrats Tried Real Outreach? - The New York Times [Last Updated On: January 14th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 14th, 2020]
- Impeachment moved nobody but threatens trouble for Democrats | TheHill - The Hill [Last Updated On: January 14th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 14th, 2020]
- Top Democrats Say They Support the Iran DealBut Here's How They've Undermined It - In These Times [Last Updated On: January 14th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 14th, 2020]
- Democrats Future Is Moving Beyond the Rust Belt - The Atlantic [Last Updated On: January 14th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 14th, 2020]
- Why The Most Coveted Democratic Endorser In Iowa Isn't Picking Sides - NPR [Last Updated On: January 14th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 14th, 2020]
- He Was Cruising in a G.O.P. Primary. Then Trump Endorsed an Ex-Democrat. - The New York Times [Last Updated On: January 14th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 14th, 2020]
- The Odd Couples of the Democratic Party - The New York Times [Last Updated On: January 14th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 14th, 2020]
- Prominent House Republican Doug Collins walks back his insistence that Democrats are in love with terrorists - MarketWatch [Last Updated On: January 14th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 14th, 2020]
- The Weekly | Vetting the 2020 Democratic Presidential Candidates - The New York Times [Last Updated On: January 14th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 14th, 2020]
- 'Deeply disturbing': 'Gang of Eight' Democrats shocked by report on Russians hacking Burisma - Washington Examiner [Last Updated On: January 14th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 14th, 2020]
- Like, Ill Tune In When Theres Two Weeks Left: Why Trump Has a Huge Advantage Over Dems With Low-Information Voters - Vanity Fair [Last Updated On: January 14th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 14th, 2020]
- The Coalition of the Ascendant Rejects Candidates of Color - National Review [Last Updated On: January 14th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 14th, 2020]
- Whats on TV Tuesday: Leslie Jones and the Democratic Debate - The New York Times [Last Updated On: January 14th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 14th, 2020]
- Who will win New Hampshire? 5 top state Democrats dish on the state of play - POLITICO [Last Updated On: January 14th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 14th, 2020]
- Democrat Klobuchar on diversity and taking on Trump in the 2020 presidential race - Reuters [Last Updated On: January 14th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 14th, 2020]
- Democratic Party Leaders Are Mostly Sitting Out The Endorsement Race So Far - FiveThirtyEight [Last Updated On: January 14th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 14th, 2020]
- Twelve Democrats, three Republicans in U.S. presidential race - Reuters [Last Updated On: January 14th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 14th, 2020]
- 'It's a sad day': As Booker exits Democratic primary, a once-historic field gets less diverse - USA TODAY [Last Updated On: January 14th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 14th, 2020]
- Live Updates And Analysis: January Democratic Debate In Iowa - NPR [Last Updated On: January 18th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 18th, 2020]
- Biden is the Democrats' 'only hope' to defeat Trump | TheHill - The Hill [Last Updated On: January 18th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 18th, 2020]
- Why Andrew Yang Has Endured While Traditional Democratic Candidates Have Not - National Review [Last Updated On: January 18th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 18th, 2020]
- Opinion | Winners and Losers of the Democratic Debate - The New York Times [Last Updated On: January 18th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 18th, 2020]
- Tucker Carlson: Democrats want US to be more like California -- the state that's driving residents away - Fox News [Last Updated On: January 18th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 18th, 2020]
- Meet the Democrats prosecuting Trump's impeachment - POLITICO [Last Updated On: January 18th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 18th, 2020]
- Liberals make up the largest share of Democratic voters, but their growth has slowed in recent years - Pew Research Center [Last Updated On: January 18th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 18th, 2020]
- Who Won The January Democratic Debate? - FiveThirtyEight [Last Updated On: January 18th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 18th, 2020]
- The War For The Democratic Party Will Destroy Lives, Change The US - The Federalist [Last Updated On: January 18th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 18th, 2020]
- Hillary Clinton on whom she thinks 2020 Democratic voters should nominate - ABC News [Last Updated On: January 18th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 18th, 2020]
- Democrats Take a Walk on the Mild Side - POLITICO [Last Updated On: January 18th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 18th, 2020]
- Democrats should put an end to caucuses - Boston Herald [Last Updated On: January 18th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 18th, 2020]
- Kimberley Strassel: Why is the 2020 Democratic primary field littered with the failed bids of woke candidates? - Fox News [Last Updated On: January 18th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 18th, 2020]
- DCCC: Democrats tout fundraising advantage in 2020 congressional elections - CBS News [Last Updated On: January 18th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 18th, 2020]
- Oregon Democrats, Republican bristle over possibility of another GOP shutdown - OregonLive [Last Updated On: January 18th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 18th, 2020]
- Democrats Should Be Worried About the Latino Vote - The Atlantic [Last Updated On: January 18th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 18th, 2020]
- Woke doesnt win and other big surprises of Democrats 2020 race so far - New York Post [Last Updated On: January 18th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 18th, 2020]
- Democratic lawmaker dismisses GOP lawsuit threat: 'Take your letter and shove it' | TheHill - The Hill [Last Updated On: January 18th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 18th, 2020]
- Cotton: Democrats are 'upset that their witnesses haven't said what they want them to say' | TheHill - The Hill [Last Updated On: January 27th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 27th, 2020]
- WATCH: Pistol Grips A 'Weapons Of War' Feature? Virginia Democrat Trying To Ban Guns Gives 6-Minute Speech, Gets EVERYTHING Wrong About Guns - The... [Last Updated On: January 27th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 27th, 2020]
- Tom Cotton: Democrats haven't proven impeachment case, don't need to 'prolong' things - Washington Times [Last Updated On: January 27th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 27th, 2020]
- What Chicagos Mayor Really Thinks About the Democratic Field - The Atlantic [Last Updated On: January 27th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 27th, 2020]
- Impeachment: Democrats reject witness swap in Trump trial - BBC News [Last Updated On: January 27th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 27th, 2020]
- Democrat House impeachment manager inadvertently admits what impeachment is actually about - TheBlaze [Last Updated On: January 27th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 27th, 2020]
- Poll Results Put Andrew Yang Back On The Democratic Debate Stage - NPR [Last Updated On: January 27th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 27th, 2020]
- 12 States Where Democrats Could Flip the Senate - The Nation [Last Updated On: January 27th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 27th, 2020]
- Facebook is worried about Democrats winning the presidential election - Axios [Last Updated On: January 27th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 27th, 2020]
- Democrats, Republicans tussle over witnesses as vote approaches | TheHill - The Hill [Last Updated On: January 27th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 27th, 2020]
- Democrats cry foul over Schiff backlash | TheHill - The Hill [Last Updated On: January 27th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 27th, 2020]
- 5 Things We Learned Interviewing 2020 Democrats (Again) - The New York Times [Last Updated On: January 27th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 27th, 2020]
- 'Didn't answer the second part of my question': Buttigieg grilled by anti-abortion Democrat - Washington Examiner [Last Updated On: January 27th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 27th, 2020]
- A Major Fear for Democrats: Will the Party Come Together by November? - The New York Times [Last Updated On: January 27th, 2020] [Originally Added On: January 27th, 2020]
- Who Will Win the Democratic Primary? Our New Prediction Model Says - OZY [Last Updated On: February 3rd, 2020] [Originally Added On: February 3rd, 2020]
- Democrats' History Of Intimidating SCOTUS Justices Carries Over Into Impeachment - The Federalist [Last Updated On: February 3rd, 2020] [Originally Added On: February 3rd, 2020]
- Impeachment has proved the Democrats are no longer democrats - The Spectator USA [Last Updated On: February 3rd, 2020] [Originally Added On: February 3rd, 2020]
- As Other Democrats Feud, Bloomberg Hammers Trump on Health Care - The New York Times [Last Updated On: February 3rd, 2020] [Originally Added On: February 3rd, 2020]
- The Humbling of Democrats in Texas - The Atlantic [Last Updated On: February 3rd, 2020] [Originally Added On: February 3rd, 2020]
- 2020 Democrats Are Already Giving Up on Congress - The Atlantic [Last Updated On: February 3rd, 2020] [Originally Added On: February 3rd, 2020]
- Iowa Democrats fear losing first-in-the-nation status - POLITICO [Last Updated On: February 3rd, 2020] [Originally Added On: February 3rd, 2020]
- Chris Matthews expresses worries: Democrats 'need to find' candidate who can beat Trump | TheHill - The Hill [Last Updated On: February 3rd, 2020] [Originally Added On: February 3rd, 2020]
- Are the Democrats Completely Screwing This Up? - Rolling Stone [Last Updated On: February 3rd, 2020] [Originally Added On: February 3rd, 2020]
- House Democrat to bring Khashoggi's fiance to State of the Union | TheHill - The Hill [Last Updated On: February 3rd, 2020] [Originally Added On: February 3rd, 2020]
- Democrats Had a 2020 Vision. This Isnt Quite What They Expected. - The New York Times [Last Updated On: February 3rd, 2020] [Originally Added On: February 3rd, 2020]
- Democrats Counter Trump on Health Care and Condemn His Conduct - The New York Times [Last Updated On: February 10th, 2020] [Originally Added On: February 10th, 2020]
- Democratic senators press Amazon over injury rates | TheHill - The Hill [Last Updated On: February 10th, 2020] [Originally Added On: February 10th, 2020]
- James Carville Rages Over State of Dem Party: 'I'm Scared to Death!' - The Daily Beast [Last Updated On: February 10th, 2020] [Originally Added On: February 10th, 2020]
- As Democrats Try to Move On From the Caucus Chaos - The New York Times [Last Updated On: February 10th, 2020] [Originally Added On: February 10th, 2020]
- The Harrowing Chaos of the Democratic Primary - The New York Times [Last Updated On: February 10th, 2020] [Originally Added On: February 10th, 2020]