Democrats still hold the edge, but Pennsylvania voter registration gains favor GOP – TribLIVE

TribLIVE's Daily and Weekly email newsletters deliver the news you want and information you need, right to your inbox.

Mary Ann Hegan is part of a voter migration she never anticipated.

The 72-year-old retiree from Laughlintown is among more than 486,000 Pennsylvania Democrats who have switched their registration to Republican since 2008. Moving the other way, Tim Gunter, 49, of Philipsburg is among 291,324 Republicans in the state to have become Democrats.

Although Democrats still hold a 700,000 voter registration edge statewide, Pennsylvania Republicans have done a better job recruiting party members since they helped elect President Trump in 2016. In the four years since, Democratic voter registration statewide declined by 10,000, standing at 4.2 million today. Conversely, Republicans registered a gain of 205,000 voters during that time, an increase that boosted GOP registration in Pennsylvania to 3.5 million.

In the interim, state records show registration fluctuated. But as it surged since the June primary, Republicans added 215,393 registered voters, while Democrats added 114,497.

Numbers like that are getting a lot of attention in what is considered a must-win swing state that Trump won by 44,000 votes, out of more than 6 million cast, in 2016.

Philip J. Harold, a political scientist at Robert Morris University in Moon, said Republican gains should be cause for excitement in the Trump campaign, where recent polls have had the president down by 4 to 6 points among likely voters.

It is highly significant. I think it indicates the race is a lot tighter than polls are showing. I think its a tossup, he said.

Changes in registration illustrate a very tangible enthusiasm gap that favors Trump, Harold said.

But everything hinges upon turnout. This is going to be a turnout election, he predicted.

Driving change

Trump is driving that on both sides of the aisle.

Both Hegan and Gunter cited Trump in their decision to switch parties.

Gunter, a lifelong Republican, grew up attending a conservative Protestant church in Central Pennsylvania. He remembers his grandmother telling him, You cant be a Democrat and a Christian.

He registered as a Republican at 18. As he grew older, however, he found himself studying issues and splitting his ticket. Three years ago, he said he decided he could no longer support a party that would not call out its president. He became a Democrat.

Even though I do not consider myself a Christian anymore, I do consider myself someone who cherishes family values and caring about everyone. I cant stand behind a party that refuses to call him on things that are horrible to people. He demeans people and talks down to people, Gunter said.

The married father of two adult children, Gunter who was laid off from his job with a bus company in State College when ridership plummeted during the pandemic has had a lot of time to study the upcoming election. He said he might not agree 100% with Biden, but sees him as a man of character who can lead America in the right direction.

In Laughlintown, Hegan and her husband, a Vietnam veteran and fellow former Democrat, also cites Trump as the motivating factor in her decision to switch parties this spring.

A lifelong Democrat, Hegan worked as a bartender in Ligonier until covid-19 health concerns prompted her to retire.

Hegan said she simply could not stomach how her fellow Democrats treated Trump.

I was ashamed to say I was a Democrat, Hegan said. Do I like Donald Trump as person? I absolutely do not. He is a blowhard, but he is what this country needed. He is smart. He is a businessman, and he had no ties to anyone. The Democratic Party has done nothing but try to get rid of him from the day he was elected.

They are not the party of the working man anymore like they were when my dad was alive, Hegan said. They want to get rid of fossil fuels. Do they know how many people that employs?

She attended Trumps airport rally near Latrobe with her 20-year-old grandson last month and came away certain she had made the right decision to become a Republican.

It was uplifting, she said.

Westmoreland red

Hegan was among 5,271 Westmoreland County Democrats who became Republicans during the first 10 months of 2020. They are part of an ongoing trend that has seen 22,597 Westmoreland Democrats become Republicans since 2008. Last year, that wave culminated in a Republican majority in a county that Democrats had ruled for more than half a century.

Although numbers like that suggest a motivated GOP, Paul S. Adams, a political scientist at the University of Pittsburgh at Greensburg, said that may not necessarily be the case.

I dont know that Republicans have any more energy than Democrats this year new registrations may or may not be meaningful, it is hard to know if they are really motivated voters. The GOP did big registration drives, but those voters may not be strong likely voters, Adams said.

Alison Dagnes, a political science professor at Shippensburg University in Southcentral Pennsylvania, said the numbers may reflect Democrats in Western and Northeastern Pennsylvania who had been voting Republican for years before switching.

If you look at how Pennsylvania has voted in the last several elections, to me the surprising thing was that Democrats had such a large margin over Republicans in voter registration. They had far more Republican state house members, and the state went for Trump in 2016, she said.

Even so, Dagnes sees the surge in GOP registration in Pennsylvania as a plus for the Trump campaign.

Those are definitely good numbers, but its really hard to hang your hat on voter registration, specifically because its a pretty complicated data point. The first thing I always go back to is voter registration does not connect one to one with how somebody votes, she said. And if you register folks to vote, can you get them to the polls on Election Day?

She said record voter registration in Pennsylvania and cross-party migration reflects how important the election has become to voters here.

The volume is up, and people are really furious, Dagnes said. They are really angry on both sides.

Deb Erdley is a Tribune-Review staff writer. You can contact Deb at 724-850-1209, derdley@triblive.com or via Twitter .

Categories:Election | Local | Pennsylvania | Top Stories | Westmoreland

TribLIVE's Daily and Weekly email newsletters deliver the news you want and information you need, right to your inbox.

More Westmoreland Stories

Read the original here:

Democrats still hold the edge, but Pennsylvania voter registration gains favor GOP - TribLIVE