Democrats concede this N.J. congressman could be in trouble. Is it a warning sign for Biden midterm? – NJ.com

Rep. Josh Gottheimer is the latest addition to the Democrats list of House members who could face tough re-election campaigns as polls show Republicans with an edge in this falls midterm elections.

Gottheimer, D-5th Dist., became the fourth New Jersey Democratic representative more than any other state on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committees Frontline program, which provides extra help for incumbents expected to be in tight races.

This is in large part a reaction to the gubernatorial election and closer-than-expected result there, said Jacob Rubaskin, an analyst with Inside Elections, which rated the district as solid Democratic.

Thats when Gov. Phil Murphy defeated Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli in a race that was not called until the following day. Ciattarelli outpolled Murphy in Gottheimers old 5th District.

Im focused on one thing: fighting for the families of the 5th District, Gottheimer said.

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman James Singer said the decision to include Gottheimer was made on internal DCCC criteria. Gottheimer was one of seven people added.

Rep. Gottheimer has been a bipartisan leader who has represented New Jersey with distinction and we look forward to working with him to win this district again, he said.

Under the new map approved by the states independent redistricting commission, Gottheimer will be running in more friendly terrain come November. In addition, he is one of the Houses formidable fundraisers, having banked $11 million for his re-election entering October.

It takes more than close gubernatorial election to make a race competitive, Rubashkin said. If things are really terrible for Democrats, could this district become more competitive? At the moment, we just havent seen that yet.

But National Republican Congressional Committee spokeswoman Samantha Bullock called Gottheimer one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the country because hes failed to deliver for his district.

Former investment banker Frank Pallotta, who lost to Gottheimer in 2020; businessman Fred Schneiderman, who has former Donald Trump campaign manager and New Jersey native Kellyanne Conway working for him; and Marine Corps veteran Nick De Gregorio are seeking the Republican nomination.

In a recent Monmouth University Poll, 35% of Americans said theyd rather see Republicans control Congress, compared with 33% who chose the Democrats. And just 39% approved of President Joe Bidens performance in office with 54% disapproving.

Democrats are spooked and they have good reason to be, Rubashkin said. If this race truly is one of the Democrats most vulnerable, they are in a world of trouble.

Also on the House Democratic list are 3rd Dist. Rep. Andy Kim, 7th Dist. Rep. Tom Malinowski and 11th Dist. Rep. Mikie Sherrill.

Kim and Sherrill also got friendlier districts for 2022 while Malinowski did not. The map is being challenged in court by the Republican commission members.

After the new districts were drawn, Kim and Sherrill were rated as safe bets for re-election while Inside Elections called Malinowskis race a tossup and the Cook Political Report gave the Republicans an edge in that district.

Those three and Gottheimer all are on the House Republicans target list. The NRCC also announced it was going after the four Democrats in 2020 but fielded only one strong challenger, then-state Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr., R-Union, who barely lost to Malinowski.

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Jonathan D. Salant may be reached at jsalant@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him at @JDSalant.

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Democrats concede this N.J. congressman could be in trouble. Is it a warning sign for Biden midterm? - NJ.com