At least for now, COVID-19 transmission in Connecticut appears to be slowing – CT Insider

COVID-19 transmission in Connecticut appears to be slowing, state numbers show, following several months of steady increase.

As of Thursday, the state averaged 1,137 daily cases over the past week, down from nearly 1,600 at one point earlier this month, though still much higher than immediately before the current wave. The states seven-day positivity rate, meanwhile, has decreased from 14.2 percent last week to 11.8 percent as of Thursday.

Though both case counts and test positivity rate are likely skewed by the popularity of at-home tests, most of which are never reported to authorities, experts say the metrics can still be useful in assessing broad trends.

Additionally, traces of COVID-19 in New Haven wastewater appear to have plateaued or even decreased slightly, data from Yale researchers shows, offering another sign that transmission in Connecticut has reached a peak, at least for now.

As of Thursday, Connecticut had 379 patients hospitalized with COVID-19, down slightly from Wednesday, when hospitalizations hit their highest level since February. Hospitalizations have continued to increase in recent days but not as sharply as earlier this month.

Over the last two weeks, weve seen at least some stabilization in terms of COVID hospitalizations, which we can track, and community transmission, which we can roughly estimate with the current data, said Dr. David Banach, hospital epidemiologist at UConn Health. So Im optimistic, with some caution, for the coming weeks.

Since March, Connecticut has been mired in a COVID-19 spike, which experts have attributed to the BA.2 subvariant. What was initially expected to be a relatively small uptick has instead caused a substantial increase in cases and hospitalizations, lasting more than two months.

Coronavirus-linked deaths have not particularly spiked during the recent wave, which may owe to the fact that deaths lag cases and hospitalizations but may also be a product of vaccine protection, strains of virus that are somewhat less deadly, and improved treatment protocols, including antiviral pills.

Connecticut on Thursday reported 19 COVID-19 deaths over the past week, bringing its total during the pandemic to 10,941.

In terms of severity of the hospitalized patients, we are seeing a smaller number with an intensive-care level of illness, Banach said. I think thats encouraging.

Still, even as Connecticuts case count and positivity rate have dipped slightly in recent days, transmission in Connecticut remains high, with tens of thousands of new infections (both reported and unreported) likely occurring each week.

Dr. Ulysses Wu, chief epidemiologist at Hartford HealthCare, said Thursday that hes not yet ready to celebrate any improvement in the state numbers.

We are at a place where we shouldnt be at all, Wu said. Whether its 383 [hospitalizations] yesterday or 379 today, both numbers are equally bad.

Connecticuts recent COVID-19 uptick, which came almost immediately on the heels of the states devastating omicron-driven winter surge, has led some infectious disease experts to fear the state will see high levels of transmission indefinitely, with new variants emerging one after another.

Already, the state has identified several cases of BA.4 and BA.5, subvariants that caused a dramatic COVID-19 uptick in South Africa.

Wu said recent trends in Connecticuts numbers have not changed his relatively pessimistic outlook about the months to come. As he sees it, Connecticut could return to lower viral levels by the end of June but could also see cases rise again at any time.

With a population that has apathy and doesnt care, whats going to happen is were going to see wave after wave after wave, Wu said. We are going to see a downturn at some point, but it really depends how prolonged that downturn is and then what is the depth of that downturn.

Even as Connecticuts cases decrease, Wu said, they are unlikely to return to the lows recorded last summer.

Its like coming down from Everest to the Tibetan pleateau, he said. Youre still pretty frickin high up in the Tibetan plateau.

Banach offered a slightly more optimistic view, arguing that summer weather, which facilitates outdoor activity, should help Connecticut keep its numbers lower than they have been.

As he sees it, Connecticuts recent decrease in cases and positivity rate could be the start of a lower-risk period.

We still need to be aware that COVID is around us, but here in Connecticut warmer weather, spending more time outdoors is beneficial in reducing the risk of spread, he said. So I think we can maintain some cautious optimism for the next few weeks.

alex.putterman@hearstmediact.com

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At least for now, COVID-19 transmission in Connecticut appears to be slowing - CT Insider