Will Michigan see a quiet winter or another COVID-19 surge? – MLive.com

Whether a new coronavirus variant takes hold in the coming weeks could determine if Michigan will undergo another seasonal COVID surge or enjoy its first quiet winter in three years.

Modeling from The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub offer projections for the next six months, with a handful of different scenarios based on vaccine uptake and the emergence of hypothetical new variants. Health officials have looked to these models throughout the pandemic to help estimate upcoming trends.

The latest models suggest Michigan could see COVID cases and hospitalizations continue to plateau or even decline this fall if there are no new immune-escaping variants of coronavirus that gain traction through the end of the year.

On the other hand, a new variant with the ability to evade existing immunity could open the door to another rise in infections, hospitalizations and deaths this winter, much like omicron caused in 2021.

Its the kind of situation where I would love it if we got a pleasant surprise and we ended up not having a winter spike, but I think we probably should prepare for one, said Marisa Eisenberg, an associate professor of epidemiology at the University of Michigan who assists the state with infectious disease modeling. History has shown that usually we do get one.

The difference between Scenario Hubs most pessimistic scenario (new variant, low booster uptake), and its most optimistic scenario (no new variant, high booster uptake early on), is about 600,000 hospitalizations and 70,000 deaths nationwide.

The group estimates early booster availability and uptake would avert 6-12% of cases, 10-16% of hospitalizations, and 12-15% of deaths.

Related: COVID questions: Are the new vaccine boosters still free? Whos eligible?

Omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5 continue to make up more than 95% of sequenced samples in the U.S. Another omicron subvariant known as BA.2.75, originally identified in India, made up 1.3% of sequenced U.S. cases last week and is being monitored by the World Health Organization.

Predicting what the actual new variant is going to be and when it might emerge is a really tough problem, Eisenberg said. It depends so much on transmission happening not just in Michigan but all around the world, and other variables.

There are a lot of different variants that (the World Health Organization) and others are keeping track of. Whether any one of those is likely to kind of emerge and become the next dominant variant is tough to say.

Michigans COVID-19 trends have been consistent from week to week throughout the summer, with steady increases over the last three months. During the last week, the state reported an average of 1,849 cases and 17 deaths per day -- up from 1,588 cases and eight deaths per day three months ago.

Similarly, hospitals were treating 1,174 COVID patients as of Tuesday, Sept. 20, compared to 777 such patients on June 21.

The latest numbers arent far off from mid-September 2021, when the state was reporting about 2,772 cases and 21 deaths per day. Case counts were likely more accurate then, due to less availability of at-home testing.

In the months that followed, a more infectious variant known as omicron took over delta as the dominant strain in the U.S., resulting in spikes in case, death and hospitalization rates. By mid-January, there were more than 17,500 cases being reported per day in Michigan, and hospitalizations neared 5,000 COVID patients as health systems begged for residents to exercise caution.

The models from Scenario Hub show potential for another spike near the end of the year. They also leave the door open for rates to continue plateauing even despite a hypothetical new variant, as its difficult to predict the infectiousness of a hypothetical new variant.

Another big factor at play will be how much of the population will get the new bivalent vaccines. The updated booster shots, which became available to Michiganders earlier this month, were made to offer protection against the original coronavirus strain from the start of the pandemic, as well as omicron BA.4 and BA.5.

Absent of a new variant, the models project early boosters could prevent 2.4 million cases, 137,000 hospitalizations, and 9,700 deaths from COVID.

The bivalent booster will help fight the omicron subvariants, including BA.4 and 5, said Dr. Natasha Bagdasarian, Michigans chief medical executive, in a prepared statement. COVID-19 vaccines remain our best defense against the virus, and we recommend all Michiganders stay up to date.

About 63% of Michiganders got an initial dose of the original vaccines. Of them, about 59% got an initial booster dose. The state hadnt published any data on bivalent booster uptake as of Wednesday, Sept. 21.

Scenario Hub notes that even the best models of emerging infections struggle to give accurate forecasts greater than a few weeks out due to unpredictable variables like changing policy environment, behavior change, development of new control measures, and random events.

Eisenberg said its getting harder to make these models, because the picture of existing immunity and re-infection is getting increasingly complicated with the evolving coronavirus variants. Still, they remain useful.

Theyre not trying to project whats going to happen, she said. Theyre saying if we get a new variant, heres what it might look like. If we dont, heres what it might look like.

To find a vaccine near you, visit the online vaccine finder tool and enter your ZIP code. If youre looking for a bivalent booster, select one or both of the bivalent shots from Pfizer and Moderna.

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Will Michigan see a quiet winter or another COVID-19 surge? - MLive.com