Tropical moisture in Caribbean keeping our weather interesting – NBC2 News

A large plume of tropical moisture in the Caribbean will keep things interesting for us as we head into Father's Day weekend.

The important thing to know is there does NOT appear to be a tropical threat to Southwest Florida in terms of an organized tropical system.

If you look at all this moisture from space on satellite imagery, the best way to describe what you see is a BIG mess.

There's no defined area of low pressure, no circulation, just a large disorganized collection of clouds and storms.

So if (and that's still a big IF) we do see tropical development in the Gulf, it's going to be a very slow process and not something that's going to sneak up on anyone.

The National Hurricane Center essentially gives this area of disturbed weather no chance to develop into a tropical entity within the next 2 days.

This could all change by early next week, though.

By then, a lot of this moisture will shift into the southern and central Gulf of Mexico, where forecast models have been hinting for days that an area of low pressure could form.

In this time frame, the Hurricane Center puts the odds of tropical development at 60% (as ofFridaymorning).

The good news for Southwest Florida is even if a tropical system forms in the Gulf next week, we're pretty confident it's not coming here.

The most likely track would be into the southwestern Gulf, perhaps near Mexico or South Texas by the middle of next week.

So, why do we care?

Well, keep in mind we're talking about a huge plume of moisture, and even though any potential tropical threat would stay far from us, we'll probably see a surge of deep tropical moisture over Southwest Florida by late this weekend into next week.

What that means for us is more cloud cover and higher rain chances, which we'll start to notice on Father's Day as showers and storms become more widespread by the afternoon.

Depending on how things evolve over the next few days, this moisture could linger over Southwest Florida for a few days, so we could see a pretty unsettled and stormy start to the week.

So, enjoy your weekend. Check back as we fine tune our forecast over the weekend.

This is not something we really need to be concerned with with respect to a tropical threat, but you'll want to plan on more rainy days ahead across Southwest Florida.

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Tropical moisture in Caribbean keeping our weather interesting - NBC2 News