Talking the Tropics With Mike: Caribbean tropical wave continues rolling west – ActionNewsJax.com

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REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *NOT* helpful & will not keep glass from breaking.

Realize the forecast cone (cone of uncertainty) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or damage that might occur.

None of the Atlantic tropical activity - right now - will have a direct impact on Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. through at least Independence Day...

* The active tropical wave - 94-L (Potential Tropical Cyclone #2) which came off the coast of Africa a week ago - a week ago Wed. - continues swiftly westbound. The wave still will likely develop, but the low latitude track + rather rapid forward speed makes the intensity/organization forecast uncertain & - so far - slow. The recent persistent upper level high will remain intact across the Atlantic & U.S. (Lower 48) which means a rather straight forward forecast track (due west).

So the question then becomes one about shear & land interaction as it relates to intensity. The fast movement & close proximity to South America has been a speed bump of sorts, but the wave will soon be in the more favorable zone of the Western Caribbean. The system will still be moving rather quickly to the west & its time over warm water & in that favorable zone will be rather limited. In any case, it looks like a tropical storm or possibly a hurricane will impact Central America - centered on Nicaragua, but even as far south as Costa Rica - Fri. into early Saturday. Once to the Pacific, the system is likely to re-organize & strengthen again while turning more northwest to the south of the Mexican coast.

On this forecast track there will be no impacts on NE Fl./SE Ga. ... or any of Florida... as well as not any of the Gulf Coast. It is worth noting early season African waves like this one are often a harbinger of an overall active Atlantic hurricane season.

A second wave is over the Central Atlantic & is steadily moving W/NW. Conditions (shear + dry air) appear rather marginal at this time for much strengthening/organization.

* A trough of low pressure continues across the Northwest Gulf of Mexico. Weak low pressure was found my hurricane hunter aircraft Wed. but tstorm activity remains poorly organized. Some development is still possible while the low slowly moves northward into Southeast Texas producing heavy rain.

Wind shear:

The location of development of tropical systems in June since 1851 generally favors the NW Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico & far Western Atlantic:

Saharan dust is spread west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes wanna be waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, weve already has a couple of dust plumes spread west to the Caribbean & Gulf with the peak of Saharan dust typically in June & July.

2022 names..... Alex was the first name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... Bonnie is next. Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in 18... Dorian in 19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in 20 & Ida in 21]). The WMO decided - beginning last year - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

GFS wave forecast at 48 & 72 hours (2 & 3 days):

Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:

The East Pacific:

West Pacific IR satellite:

Global tropical activity:

Chaba is forecast to become a typhoon while moving toward China staying west of Hong Kong:

Cox Media Group

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Talking the Tropics With Mike: Caribbean tropical wave continues rolling west - ActionNewsJax.com