July Best Bets: East Coast and Caribbean — Biding Time Until the Dust Settles and Hurricane Surf Arrives? – Surfline.com Surf News

The northern half of the East Coast finished June and started July off with a week of fun surf, by summertime standards. But this is no time for revisionist history. Up and down the coast, June panned out about as we anticipated in the Summer Outlook: the waves were average. June is typically the slowest surf month of the year for damn near every spot in the North Atlantic. On the East Coast, it generally means a few longboard days, maybe a fish sesh or two, but no guarantees your shortboard will leave the garage.

The lone standout in June? The Gulf of Mexico. Breaks from South Padre Island, Texas, to Naples, Florida, saw days of surf from the long-lived and meandering Tropical Storm Cristobal.

Atlantic Summer Outlook: Whats So Different About This Summer?

If you scored in July, it was in the Gulf. Tropical Storm Cristobal. Photo: Alex Dantin

And now comes July. A month that usually offers no better hope for solid surf on the East Coast.

The tropics have gone quiet since unleashing a record flurry of named storms through the first week of June. Were expecting an above-average hurricane season this year, possibly even a hyperactive one, ever since El Nino was wiped from our future, leaving the door open for a tropically favorable La Nina to develop in time for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. So when will the Saharan dust settle so the tropics can start firing back up with solid swell?

How La Nina Adds Fuel to Hurricane Season

When we look back at our 40-year dataset and past years with similar climate conditions, a pattern starts to stand out. July is moving-month before the busy tropical season kicks in. Some zones will be above-average, while others remain average or even regress to below-average. Is your spot headed in the right direction, or the wrong one?

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July Best Bets: East Coast and Caribbean -- Biding Time Until the Dust Settles and Hurricane Surf Arrives? - Surfline.com Surf News