First tropical wave of the season tracking into the Western Caribbean – WDSU New Orleans

Posted: May 20, 2022 at 2:11 am

The first tropical wave of the season emerged off the coast of Africa the weekend before last ago, and some long-range forecasts had some very interesting solutions. But now, we're starting to get a little finer detail on what this energy could eventually do and where it's more likely to go. There has been one particular forecast that has been, what we say, the outlier to most others and that's the forecast data produced by our best forecast produced here in the U.S. 4 times a day: The Global Forecast System or the GFS. About 10 days ago, this showed potential for Gulf development, but lately, it's started to back off this possible explosive development. First things first. This is where the tropical wave is right now, which is over the Central to Western Caribbean. As you can see, this is still a very long way from New Orleans. And according to the data right now, it's expected to get absorbed into what's called a Central American Gyre. That's essentially a big rotating area of energy in the atmosphere that can produce an expansive area of storm activity over Central American Countries. In the last couple of days, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) pointed out another tropical wave. This one is located off the Coast of Africa and more almost in between Africa and South America. This wave of energy is thousands of miles away from New Orleans. Here's the thing. The NHC doesn't expect ANY formation over the next 5 days, and a big reason for that is a big plume of dust that got swept up from the Sahara Desert and is now all the way through the Atlantic and almost into the Caribbean Basin. As the dust continues to spread west, it's forecast to draw into the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week and could even be seen in the atmosphere over Southeast Louisiana by Saturday evening. That could actually make for some very picturesque sunsets and sunrises. Here's the takeaway: There are minimal to 0 chances foreseen for any tropical development that could affect Southeast Louisiana over the next week and a half. With that being said, we'll keep you informed of the latest tropical information online and on air with WDSU.

The first tropical wave of the season emerged off the coast of Africa the weekend before last ago, and some long-range forecasts had some very interesting solutions. But now, we're starting to get a little finer detail on what this energy could eventually do and where it's more likely to go.

There has been one particular forecast that has been, what we say, the outlier to most others and that's the forecast data produced by our best forecast produced here in the U.S. 4 times a day: The Global Forecast System or the GFS. About 10 days ago, this showed potential for Gulf development, but lately, it's started to back off this possible explosive development. First things first.

This is where the tropical wave is right now, which is over the Central to Western Caribbean.

As you can see, this is still a very long way from New Orleans.

And according to the data right now, it's expected to get absorbed into what's called a Central American Gyre. That's essentially a big rotating area of energy in the atmosphere that can produce an expansive area of storm activity over Central American Countries.

In the last couple of days, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) pointed out another tropical wave. This one is located off the Coast of Africa and more almost in between Africa and South America.

This wave of energy is thousands of miles away from New Orleans.

Here's the thing. The NHC doesn't expect ANY formation over the next 5 days, and a big reason for that is a big plume of dust that got swept up from the Sahara Desert and is now all the way through the Atlantic and almost into the Caribbean Basin.

As the dust continues to spread west, it's forecast to draw into the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week and could even be seen in the atmosphere over Southeast Louisiana by Saturday evening. That could actually make for some very picturesque sunsets and sunrises.

Here's the takeaway: There are minimal to 0 chances foreseen for any tropical development that could affect Southeast Louisiana over the next week and a half. With that being said, we'll keep you informed of the latest tropical information online and on air with WDSU.

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First tropical wave of the season tracking into the Western Caribbean - WDSU New Orleans

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