‘TfL’s funding crisis is the new Brexit and the sooner everyone admits it the better’ – My London

Four attempts and we still don't have a proper deal. Boris Johnson and his team being accused of not taking negotiations seriously.

Businesses are warning that the uncertainty is not good for them. Unions are starting to get anxious at the prospect of job losses.

Londoners are being ignored. The whole thing is starting to drag now. Dj vu?

Of course, it's "TfLexit". In a time when the government is putting transport at the centre of its 'levelling up agenda' to bring the country closer together, London's public transport is diverging.

Most economists and politicians will tell you it's a bad thing but the people have voted (re-electing a Labour mayor) and que sera, sera.

READ MORE: What happened to London's bendy buses 10 years after being kicked out of the capital

As we enter 2022, the sunlit uplands of Metroland are looking more fragile more than ever.

Transport for London (TfL) says it needs around 2billion a year to plug a financial hole to keep the city moving or else hundreds of bus routes are at risk, a Tube line could go and the city won't be the same for decades to come.

The government says it's 'scaremongering'. Whoever you believe and whatever side you're on, if a deal was possible for Brexit, a deal is possible for the TfL funding crisis and we might just learn from the uncanny similarities between the two.

Last week's announcement that the Deputy Mayor for Transport, Heidi Alexander, would be stepping down was met with a wry reaction.

It was acceptance that given the dire prospects for London's transport, it's probably the most unattractive, bleak role a politician could have in the country despite the 132,664 salary Ms Alexander received.

Although it's looking likely the Elizabeth line is set to open soon and cycling continues to flourish across the capital, everything else is quite frankly depressing - 2billion funding crisis, declining passenger use, congestion problems, river crossings at risk of collapse or closure, Tube strikes every weekend for at least the next six months, concerns over women's safety and growing anger over the Silvertown Tunnel.

Every one of these is a stick the Tory government knows it can use to prod the opposing Labour mayoral team. You'd need someone who knows how to fight a losing battle.

Cue die-hard Remainer Seb Dance, former London MEP, who famously held up a "he's lying to you" sign behind Nigel Farage in a Brussels speech.

He will be taking over from Ms Alexander.

Assuredly a very competent and principled politician, his real asset in the Deputy Mayor for Transport role is his ability to hold his head up and say 'I tried to do the right thing when everything went wrong' when it inevitably will because City Hall has no real negotiating power, one fears.

It means negotiations to resolve TfL's funding crisis are now essentially down to a significant amount of people who were invested in the Brexit debacle: Seb Dance, Boris Johnson, the Department for Transport (which is still haunted by queues at Dover) and vocal Brexit critic Sadiq Khan.

The former permanent secretary to the Department for Exiting the European Union, Clare Moriarty, now sits on the TfL board after being appointed by Transport Secretary Grant Shapps as part of conditions the government imposed in the first TfL bailout.

In the best case scenario, each of these people will have learnt from mistakes made in the choppy Brexit negotiations and use it to their advantage to come to a compromise in the interests of Londoners.

In the worst case scenario, we will get a proper deal four years after the crisis started and there could very well be several political casualties.

I would direct you to the European Union flags on the side of TfL's newest 545,000 hydrogen buses as an indication of how things appear to be going so far.

As both TfL and the government look at ways to come to an agreement, it would appear that a 'hard border' is at risk of forming around London - in terms of transport at least. Mayor Sadiq Khan floated the idea of charging road users a 3.50-5.50 charge to enter Greater London per day, with the funds helping to plug TfL's financial black hole.

The idea reportedly 'remains an option' but seems to have been quashed by the government.

The Mayor is now instead proposing to shift this charge from road users to public transport users by removing TfL from the National Travelcard scheme (think of it as a customs union with National Rail).

Currently, if you live outside of London, you can buy a travelcard which covers TfL services in Zones 1 to 6 which costs around .350-5.50 more than a standard return to the London terminus station by train.

By removing TfL from that agreement, passengers would be forced to buy a standard return and then use contactless/Oyster instead, which costs them more but would bring TfL more money in fares revenue.

This would backfire massively.

The cheaper travelcard fares encourage those from outside of London to come and spend money in the capital.

Should the perceived travelcard benefit disappear, those who live in the Home Counties would find it much cheaper to simply drive to the London boundary, dump their cars at the first opportunity and get on the Tube anyway.

That brings more congestion and pollution to the streets of Outer London and reduces train usage between the capital and its Home Counties commuter towns, which leads to a reduction in services.

At the same time, the Mayor is desperately trying to convert Outer London Tube station car parks into more financially lucrative housing developments which make TfL extra money.

If he is successful, those now wishing to 'park & ride' instead of buy a travelcard will have to dump their cars in side streets in places like Stanmore, bound to be met by strong local opposition.

So far, four of TfL's planning applications have been rejected, with key Brexiteer and Barnet MP Theresa Villiers accusing the Mayor of a 'war on the suburbs'.

In recent years to save money, TfL has also implemented or proposed changes to its bus routes which run beyond the Greater London boundary into the Home Counties.

It tried to cut two routes to Bluewater, cut route 167 from Debden to Loughton after subsidies stopped in 2016, is proposing a host of changes to buses on the Croydon/Surrey border and reduced frequencies on several remaining bus routes (such as route 292 to Borehamwood, Hertfordshire).

The world might be your Oyster but I wouldn't be surprised if Essex no longer is, put it that way.

TfL also seems to have given up on the Metropolitan line entirely.

It will not be as easy to travel from the Home Counties into London as it was before the TfL funding crisis whatever happens..

Combined with the Mayor's wish to push through the Silvertown Tunnel against much opposition and reduce the congestion charge, it would appear that the Mayor is inadvertently penalising those who are using public transport to encourage more people to use their cars.

But despite that, the whole TfL funding crisis was caused by a shift in people using their cars instead of public transport during Covid in the first place.

Je ne sais pas non plus.

Wherever we go from here will be messy. Right now, Mr Khan probably has a better chance of ringing up Noel Edmonds and his infamous 'banker' than getting a decent funding settlement from Westminster.

What is certain is that we're reaching a Brexit crescendo.

With a fourth lockdown or new restrictions on the horizon, the whole in TfL's finances is set to get worse, not better.

TfL seems to have tacitly accepted this and has stylised three options for the media in the same way that Remainers outlined the possible outcomes of a disastrous Brexit that nobody wanted and nobody technically voted for.

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Don't let the jargon fool you.

'Managed decline' is hard TfLexit, 'financially constrained' is soft TfLexit and 'Policy consistent' is remain.

Ultimately, it will be a botched job which is neither of these three but all of the same three at the same time and will have some bizarre unintended consequences like renaming Cyprus DLR station as "Winston Churchill".

For now, let's just hope TfL gets it's mojo back somehow.

What a tragedy it would be if the city which invented the underground railway as we know it had to scrap part of it thanks to ideological politicking. It can never lose its precious va va voom.

You can read all of MyLondon's TfL-related news stories, features and trivia pieces on our dedicated page.

What outcome do you think will come of 'TfLexit'? Share with us your thoughts in the comments below!

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'TfL's funding crisis is the new Brexit and the sooner everyone admits it the better' - My London