Teasing out the effects of Brexit from the spend on 2020-21: we may have more to worry about than COVID-19 itself – The BMJ

Dear Editors

The COVID-19 health crisis, later a pandemic, came at a time when the UK was having a transition of national devolution and ultimately withdrawal from the European common market over 12 months in 2020, the current government having won the Dec 2019 election on their proposed version of the Brexit platform (except someone forgot to ask the EU if they agreed to it).

The UK's uncoupling from the EU has been expected to significantly (and negatively) impact many local businesses despite claims of better conditions for local markets having wrestled the bureaucratic control off Brussels; some predictions suggest requiring subsidies or monetary support for businesses to retain employment in various sectors. Many economists expected the UK's per capita income to be reduced in the long term as a result of Brexit, but the uncertainty of the protracted negotiation between London and Brussels over the actual terms of the divorce (including the threat of a "no deal" outcome) during the transition made the UK even less attractive to foreign investors.

All these during the first wave of the pandemic in Europe and the UK.

I am impressed that the National Audit Office can actually differentiate the impact of COVID-19 measures and uncertainty from those of the Brexit transition and the spectre of a no-deal withdrawal on UK businesses. Considering a large proportion (40%) of the estimated 260 billion spend so far is spent to prop up employment retention and payment, I cannot but help wonder about how the NAO managed to draw a line in the sand to attribute the risks to UK jobs as purely a healthcare/pandemic one, rather than Brexit.

Frankly we might never know what would have been the true effect of Brexit if the pandemic didn't come around at the same time, and I have certainly not addressed the other surprise in the report, that direct healthcare costs in the UK pandemic response only accounts for 20% of the spend, and worse, that the much criticised (ref 1) test and trace program alone accounts for 32% of the healthcare spend (or 7% of the overall COVID-19 costs).

If this reflects the expectations and standard of any new agency established under the Boris government, perhaps we have more to worry about than the COVID-19 pandemic itself.

Reference1. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00714-3/fulltext

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Teasing out the effects of Brexit from the spend on 2020-21: we may have more to worry about than COVID-19 itself - The BMJ