Harry Pickard, Vincenzo Bove, and Georgios Efthyvoulou present evidence that individuals were less inclined to move in the aftermath of the EU referendum when they were aligned with the Brexit preferences of their district.As Remainers found themselves on the losing side, they were more likely than Leavers to value the alignment to their district, given their misalignment to the country.
Major polity-shaping events, like the UKs 2016 decision to leave the EU, can have important consequences on peoples attitudes and behaviour. The Brexit vote has deepened existing divisions in the British society over key issues, such as national identity, globalisation, and multiculturalism, and generated salient affective polarisation, with individuals segregating themselves socially and distrusting people from the opposing side. Perhaps not surprisingly, the referendum has also affected peoples life satisfaction and mental distress, and led to fallouts with family and friends.
In a recently published study in Political Geography, we investigate whether such hostile culture of othering political rivals can affect broader social relationships by changing individuals propensity to migrate internally. Existing research has largely focused on the geographic sorting of the American electorate, and little attention has been given to other countries. And while one of our recent works shows that internal migration choices are strongly affected by political preferences also in the UK and districts with the same political preferences exhibit higher migration flows there is no evidence of the effect of Brexit as such. The unique circumstances of Brexit, with a near 50-50 vote and the fractious discussions around its future, make the EU referendum a particularly suitable test-bed to examine the consequences of polarising politics on internal population movements.
But how exactly did the Brexit referendum affect internal migration choices? There are two complementary behavioural explanations for our research question. First, we could expect the referendum outcome to make people more polarised. In fact, the national split revealed and reinforced by the Brexit vote has popularised the notion of a divided Britain, an expression frequently used to capture a growing sense of social and political polarisation. As Brexit identities have reinforced themselves in the aftermath of the referendum, often surpassing traditional party identities, political differences became more salient, in turn affecting internal migration decisions. Second, the referendum returns could have made latent divisions that already existed in the population more visible and consequential or provided new information about the aggregate political preferences of the district of residence. This could be particularly important considering the high degree of uncertainty around the Brexit outcome and the forecasting errors of financial markets and opinion polls, which did not anticipate the victory of Leave.
We leverage comprehensive survey-based data for around 18,000 individuals from the UK Household Longitudinal Study, and examine whether the change in relocation patterns from before to after the referendum date of 23 June 2016 was different for different groups of people, depending on their political alignment status with the latter defined as having the same preferences over EU membership as the majority (at least 50%) of people residing in the same district. Our estimation strategy is designed to address self-selectivity concerns; that is, unobserved factors affecting both relocation decisions and peoples preferences towards Brexit.
Our analysis reveals that individuals migration choices are indeed influenced by deviations from community preferences. We find that UK citizens were significantly less likely to move to another district after the referendum when they were strongly aligned to their district of residence. At the same time, we find that this alignment-induced effect is mostly driven by Remain supporters. On the one hand, as Remainers found themselves on the losing side, they were more likely to value the alignment to their district, given their misalignment to the country as a whole. As those who preferred to remain in the EU became also worse off in terms of mental health, they were less inclined to leave neighbours who share similar political values. On the other hand, as Leavers won nationally, local alignment matters relatively less for them, and only when their districts share of Leave votes is particularly high.
Our analysis also provides evidence that the main channel underpinning our results is the desire for political homophily; i.e., living in areas with political views similar to your own can satisfy your need for belonging and thus reduce the likelihood to relocate. Using information on the destination districts, we show that, after the referendum, non-aligned individuals were more likely to move to a district to which they could then feel aligned.
If the referendum served initially to polarise attitudes towards the EU, the subsequent Brexit process has served to ensure that the legacy of the referendum is still present despite the fact polling day has long since come and gone. In fact, scholars and political commentators have increasingly warned about the increasing tribalisation of British politics. Existing divisions do not only mirror divergences over the consequences of Brexit as such, but also in terms of peoples sense of identity and the values they uphold, given the implications of EU membership for cross-border migration and issues of sovereignty.
By reinforcing the presence of politically homogeneous communities, deepening political divides do not only discourage the discussion of opposing viewpoints; they can also promote intolerance which can ultimately damage the social fabric of a country. Ultimately, in the long run, higher local homogeneity in citizens political preferences could further exacerbate divisions across the British society.
_______________________
About the Authors
Harry Pickard is Lecturer in Economics at Newcastle University.
Vincenzo Bove is Professor of Political Science in the Department of Politics and International Studies at the University of Warwick.
Georgios Efthyvoulou is Senior Lecturer in Economics at the University of Sheffield.
Photo by Kelli McClintock on Unsplash.
Read more here:
- Government should stop grandstanding over Brexit | London Business News - London Loves Business [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Coronavirus lockdown: Brexit talks could be eased with informal Zoom drinks over video conference - inews [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Brexit: EU Trade Talks Could Collapse in June over Fishing, Regulations - Breitbart [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- How Kronborg Castle helped to inspire Shakespeare | Latest Brexit news and top stories - The New European [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Extending the Brexit transition period - Third Force News [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Boris Johnson's perversity on the Brexit cliff edge reminds me of the Free State's rejection of all things British - Slugger O'Toole [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Who is on the BBC's Question Time tonight? | Latest Brexit news and top stories - The New European [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Crunching the numbers, could Brexit really lead to a United Ireland? - Galway Daily [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Theres something common in reactions to Ranbir Kapoors jeans, Brexit and Khan Market gang - ThePrint [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Priti Patel allies to 'demand apology' over bullying allegations | Latest Brexit news and top stories - The New European [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Post-Brexit carte system 'will be easy', France says - The Connexion [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Brexit does not belong to one party, and Labour must play its part - LabourList [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- EU free trade deal with Mexico (started at same time as Brexit) is AGREED - Express.co.uk [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- DAVID EDGERTON: Where Brexit and Covid-19 collide | Latest Brexit news and top stories - The New European [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Boris Johnson must extend Brexit talks for another YEAR, major Tory Party donor demands - Express [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Campaigners file case that argues EU citizenship is permanent regardless of Brexit | Latest Brexit news and top stories - The New European [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Gove Complains EU Not Respecting Sovereignty in Brexit Talks - Bloomberg [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- SNP warn of 'chilling prospect' of no-deal Brexit as UK Gov won't extend talks - The Scotsman [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- UK seeks access to EU health cooperation in light of coronavirus - The Guardian [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Boris gives green light for Brexit Britain to start formal US trade talks NEXT WEEK - Express [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- UK will need to extend Brexit transition, Merkel ally warns Britain - The Guardian [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Tory MP David Davis urges government capitalise on coronavirus outbreak to seal a Brexit deal | Latest Brexit news and top stories - The New European [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Coronavirus: We are all paying the price for the Tory government's preoccupation with Brexit | Latest Brexit news and top stories - The New European [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Brexit trade deal WILL be struck this year say UK negotiators - but only after EU tantrum - Express [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Row over EU office in Belfast threatens to derail Brexit talks - The Guardian [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- British lawyer sues EU over her removal from its court due to Brexit - The Guardian [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Arlene Foster: Talk of extension to Brexit transition period a 'distraction' - The Irish News [Last Updated On: May 11th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 11th, 2020]
- The week ahead: Brexit talks to continue, US and China retail sales eyed - FXStreet [Last Updated On: May 11th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 11th, 2020]
- 2 reasons why Brexit could soon be the biggest factor influencing the FTSE 100 index - Motley Fool UK [Last Updated On: May 11th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 11th, 2020]
- McCann FitzGerald and William Fry cut pay as Covid-19 reverses Brexit optimism in Ireland - The Global Legal Post [Last Updated On: May 11th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 11th, 2020]
- Local fishermen against Brexit transition period extension - Shetland News [Last Updated On: May 11th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 11th, 2020]
- Europe Day reminds us that unity is strength | Latest Brexit news and top stories - The New European [Last Updated On: May 11th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 11th, 2020]
- Robert Jenrick struggles to explain new coronavirus messaging from government | Latest Brexit news and top stories - The New European [Last Updated On: May 11th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 11th, 2020]
- GBPUSD steady above 1.2400 as new Brexit talks resume - InvestingCube [Last Updated On: May 11th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 11th, 2020]
- Pro-Brexit Tory MP tries to overturn result of two referendums - The New European [Last Updated On: May 11th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 11th, 2020]
- Britain's fisheries on the table today as Brexit deal talks resume - EU Today [Last Updated On: May 11th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 11th, 2020]
- Brexit fishing outrage: How UK could have followed Norway's path and protected its waters - Express [Last Updated On: May 11th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 11th, 2020]
- Letter: It's time for politicians to respect the Brexit referendum - East London and West Essex Guardian Series [Last Updated On: May 11th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 11th, 2020]
- Brexit ultimatum: MEPs demand access to crunch Brexit conference as VDL issued warning - Express.co.uk [Last Updated On: May 11th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 11th, 2020]
- Keir Starmer refuses to back Brexit transition extension - The Independent [Last Updated On: May 11th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 11th, 2020]
- Foster: Talk of extension to Brexit transition period a distraction - Belfast Telegraph [Last Updated On: May 11th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 11th, 2020]
- The Brextremists plot their revenge on the House of Lords | Latest Brexit news and top stories - The New European [Last Updated On: May 11th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 11th, 2020]
- Brexit shambles: How desperate Remainers tried to claim William Shakespeare in EU debate - Express [Last Updated On: May 11th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 11th, 2020]
- Has Brexit affected the way Britons think about immigrants? The recent 'national mood' on immigration - British Politics and Policy at LSE [Last Updated On: May 11th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 11th, 2020]
- Ireland says Brexit trade talks timeline 'virtually impossible' - Reuters [Last Updated On: May 11th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 11th, 2020]
- Brexit talks back on between EU and UK ahead of June summit - Euronews [Last Updated On: May 11th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 11th, 2020]
- TCW's Brexit Watch: Our Hong Kong connection strikes fear into EU - The Conservative Woman [Last Updated On: June 6th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 6th, 2020]
- Ian McConnell: Will anything, anything at all make Johnson and Co. stop Brexit folly in its tracks in time as Scottish pleas ignored? - HeraldScotland [Last Updated On: June 6th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 6th, 2020]
- Evening top 5: Accelerated COVID-19 re-opening; summer schools; and 'no progress' on Brexit - Newstalk [Last Updated On: June 6th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 6th, 2020]
- Inside the final act of the Brexit drama - Spectator.co.uk [Last Updated On: June 6th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 6th, 2020]
- Letter to the editor: No-deal Brexit would make recession worse - Bournemouth Echo [Last Updated On: June 6th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 6th, 2020]
- MSP: Firms in East Dunbartonshire cant prepare for Brexit on top of a pandemic - Kirkintilloch Herald [Last Updated On: June 6th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 6th, 2020]
- Our response to pandemic can help to heal Brexit wounds Archbishop of York - Yorkshire Post [Last Updated On: June 6th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 6th, 2020]
- Irish fears for Brexit talks if Hogan gets top WTO job - The Irish Times [Last Updated On: June 6th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 6th, 2020]
- Brexit backlash: Guy Verhofstadt savaged after yet another attack on Boris Johnson - Express [Last Updated On: June 6th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 6th, 2020]
- Crucial week ahead in Brexit negotiations, says Ahern - RTE.ie [Last Updated On: June 6th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 6th, 2020]
- Key election battlegrounds face double hit from Brexit and coronavirus - The Guardian [Last Updated On: June 6th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 6th, 2020]
- Jacob Rees-Mogg conjures Thatcher while dismissing calls for a Brexit extension - The New European [Last Updated On: June 6th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 6th, 2020]
- The Economic Case Against Extending the Brexit Transition - briefingsforbrexit.com [Last Updated On: June 6th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 6th, 2020]
- Northern Ireland faces 'potent threat' from Brexit and Covid-19 - The Guardian [Last Updated On: June 6th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 6th, 2020]
- The Brexit crisis led to totally incompetent leadership at a time of unprecedented calamity. Now we are paying for it - The Independent [Last Updated On: June 6th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 6th, 2020]
- Stormont backs calling for extension to Brexit transition period - The Guardian [Last Updated On: June 6th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 6th, 2020]
- UK seeks to boost post-Brexit ties with Asean partnership - Bangkok Post [Last Updated On: June 6th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 6th, 2020]
- Claim that extending the Brexit transition period could cost 380 billion is not credible - Full Fact [Last Updated On: June 6th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 6th, 2020]
- The pandemic is being used as cover for a no-deal Brexit - The Guardian [Last Updated On: June 6th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 6th, 2020]
- The EU is beginning to believe the UK actually wants the Brexit trade deal talks to fail - Business Insider - Business Insider [Last Updated On: June 6th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 6th, 2020]
- How the Coronavirus Makes a No-Deal Brexit More Likely - The New York Times [Last Updated On: June 6th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 6th, 2020]
- Bracknell readers send in their letters this week - Bracknell News [Last Updated On: June 13th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 13th, 2020]
- 'Crofters must not take their eye off Brexit' - Press and Journal [Last Updated On: June 13th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 13th, 2020]
- GBP/USD: Horrible UK GDP and Brexit hassles pounds the pound - FXStreet [Last Updated On: June 13th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 13th, 2020]
- 'Petrified' EU facing crisis as Brexit success threatens to spell END of bloc, Tice warns - Express.co.uk [Last Updated On: June 13th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 13th, 2020]
- Arsene Wenger warns Brexit restrictions could kill Premier League and its global appeal - Mirror Online [Last Updated On: June 13th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 13th, 2020]
- Scottish research facing twin threats of COVID and Brexit - gov.scot - Scottish Government News [Last Updated On: June 13th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 13th, 2020]
- Germany and France must do THIS for EU survival or other nations will follow Brexit - Express.co.uk [Last Updated On: June 13th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 13th, 2020]
- No-deal Brexit would be 'major block' to UK's recovery, warns CBI - The Guardian [Last Updated On: June 13th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 13th, 2020]
- WATCH: Tory Brexiteer baffles news viewers by claiming EU will 'blink again' over government's Brexit position - The New European [Last Updated On: June 13th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 13th, 2020]
- Majority of Britons back Brexit extension to help beat coronavirus - The Independent [Last Updated On: June 13th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 13th, 2020]
- Brexit: No light ahead of the tunnel - RTE.ie [Last Updated On: June 13th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 13th, 2020]
- First Minister links with Welsh counterpart to lobby Boris Johnson for Brexit extension - Northern Times [Last Updated On: June 17th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 17th, 2020]
- Brexit talks latest: Government and Tory Party are facing a big split over cheap US food imports - iNews [Last Updated On: June 17th, 2020] [Originally Added On: June 17th, 2020]