Boris Johnsons main claim to fame, as opposed to infamy, is (at least in the eyes of half the UK electorate), that he got Brexit done.
A year after Britains messy divorce from the EU, pundits and economists have been totting up the costs and benefits. Remainers and even government economists say weve paid through the nose. The Office for Budget Responsibility says leaving the EU will reduce our long-term GDP by around 4 per cent, compared to a fall of around 1.5 per cent caused by the pandemic.
Brexiters say its too early to gauge the political benefits or even financial outcome.
What about the EU perspective? The views of our leading frenemy, and nearest neighbour France, might be deemed a little jaundiced given the current, dire state of relations between the government of Johnson, the glib populist, and that of Emmanuel Macron, the show-boating Sun King, who has an eye on upcoming presidential elections.
For a more sober assessment of Brexit a year on, i talked to the Italian ambassador to the UK, another of the EUs big three economies, with whom Britain enjoys a steadier relationship, based on a degree of mutual affection and economic necessity (bilateral trade totals almost 40bn).
Raffaele Trombetta is a suave career diplomat and an anglophile, who arrived in London in 2018 with his British wife Victoria, joining their children who already lived in the UK. Back then, he expressed his admiration for the citys dynamism and unparalleled vibe, which already characterised London when he was first here as Consul in the 1990s.
How does the city feel now, post-Brexit?
He notes its difficult to disentangle the effects of Covid from those of Brexit on how London or the UK feels now compared with two years ago. But some metrics do tell a story. Trade between Britain and Italy is down this is not simply due to the pandemic, he says.
Theres been an impact from Brexit as well as Covid its very simple. He notes that exports to the rest of the world have increased since 2019. But unfortunately, not with the UK.
If you then relate 2021 to 2019. Actually, there has been quite a substantial reduction in the trade both ways, he says.
Typical Italian exports to Britain which totaled more than 25bn in 2019 include machinery, cars and car parts, pharmaceuticals, clothing, furniture, food, wine, and clothing. Italys small and medium sized businesses, which form a major part of its export economy, have been hit particularly hard from the extra red tape created by Brexit. These often family-owned businesses have had to make big changes in a small period of time.
Delay and hold ups have spelt trouble for one commodity, in particular: food. Perishables, from fruit to mozzarella and gorgonzola cheeses dont do well languishing in lorry parks.
Those products need to be consumed, he says.
This month new trade rules have kicked between Britain and the EU, with the introduction of full customs declarations and customs controls.
So obviously this is going to add again to the changes. We have been working hard to help Italian businesses.
So bilateral trade has taken a hit from Brexit. What are the upsides from Britains separation from the EU? Mr Trombetta, the diplomat, answers tangentially by complimenting British officials helpfulness in mitigating some of the problems caused by the separation.
Weve had good, very good cooperation from the UK authorities on citizens rights, for instance, he says.
A huge number of Italians over 470,000 still live in the UK. The official figure actually increased over the Brexit period, as those that decided to stay, scrambled to register with the Embassy to retain, among other things, voting rights at home.
This is what Ive been working on to make sure that there are no long-term consequences in our relationship. If you look for the positive side, you know, we have maybe been encouraged to find new areas of cooperation.
And were trying to strengthen those areas we were already working on. Now we have a strategic dialogue on defence issues. Italy and the UK are working together on the big Tempest project.
Back in November, Italys Air Force Chief of Staff General Luca Goretti said that thanks to its leading role in developing the Tempest fighter aircraft, Rome could act as a bridge between Nato and Europe; for that read the UK and EU.
The Tempest project which includes BAE Systems, Rolls-Royce and the British arm of Italian defence group Leonardo has an annual budget of 2bn from the British government until 2025.
Events on Ukraines borders have thrown the spotlight on European defence collaboration, particularly now that the UK, one of the continents two significant military powers (along with France) is semi-detached.
At a time when EU members, most notably France, are calling for greater defence teamwork within the bloc, Mr Trombetta is keen to flag up continuing UK-European defence co-operation.
Such co-operation, post-Brexit, is sadly lacking.
What we would have hoped for [post-brexit] would have been a chapter in the agreement on foreign policy and security but it didnt happen. For various reasons, Mr Trombetta says.
Other observers have been more direct in their criticism of the British government. Charles Grant, director of the London-based think-tank the Centre for European Reform, told The Guardian: Lord Frost refused to have any form of structured relationship on foreign and defence policy post-Brexit with the EU though the EU wanted one and we are paying a very heavy price as a result.
The UK has been weakened, with its influence and power on the European and world stages diminished. And on issues from climate change to Russia, the EU is missing out on British scientific and security expertise.
The EU has faced other big changes in the past 12 months including the departure of its political rock Angela Merkel. While the new Germany coalition finds its feet, theres been much talk in Brussels of Rome stepping up to assert its status as one of the EUs big three economies and challenge FrancoGermany dominance.
I asked Mr Trombetta if Italy is angling for a bigger role in the EU.
I dont think its a sort of competition, you knowbut it can be a positive thing. Its a fact: Italy is one of the big countries and we have played a key role in the EU.
He considers a key part of his mission to promote unsung Italian innovation in manufacturing, technology and design as well as the things perhaps veering towards cliche pizza, old architecture, and romanticised view of mafia crime, that the Brits love about Italy.
Its the same with Italians, he admits, however. Theyre fascinated with your Royal Family.
He sings the praises of the current occupant of the Prime Ministers office in Rome. Mario Draghi is a political heavyweight; a former President of the European Central Bank, with a contacts book that spans Washington to Beijing.
Draghis status contrasts with the lightweights and laughing stocks that have bedevilled Italys international reputation in the past two decades.
Mr Trombetta is confident that Italy and the EU will prevail although he regrets that it will be without the UK.
As a European and also the husband of a British woman, with two kids living in the UK, I was sad, to be honest with you, when Britain left. I still think it was important for the EU to have the UK within its membership, and also, of course, its my opinion that it was best for the UK to be part of the European Union.
But hes hopeful that the phasing out of the EU withdrawal agreement does not signal the end to constructive dialogue between Britain and the EU. We can build on that. And then well see where we will go and where we are in a few years, he says. Well also see where the EU will be in a few years time.
Some in Italy have wondered whether there could in the longer term be a way back from Brexit. For now, its done, but perhaps this may change in a generation or two, Massimo Ungaro, a London-based MP for Italys Democratic party, who represents Italian ex-pats, told the FT. Besides, they [the Brits] havent yet seen its true cost.
Mr Trombetta puts it another way. In addition to being mostly friends, and key allies and trading partners, we are like it says in that book, prisoners of geography.
Of course, he says Britain and Italy will continue to enjoy excellent relations. But in another positive note he predicts that despite the current bumpy patch, our relations with Paris will improve, too, because, fundamentally, the ties between Britain and France are really, so strong. It is, he says, common sense.
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