Brendan Hughes: The DUP’s election strategy over Brexit NI Protocol – Belfast Live

With just four months to go until May's Assembly election, everyone is trying to work out what the DUP's next move will be.

It could be a captivating real-life chess game if it wasn't all so transparent.

For a year now since Brexit's Northern Ireland Protocol came into force, the DUP has been in a bind.

Dismal poll results helped prompt a messy leadership coup and a subsequent hardening of its anti-protocol rhetoric to try and reclaim support from unionist rivals.

Sir Jeffrey Donaldson has since September been threatening to collapse the Stormont Executive if his party's demands over the protocol are not met.

But the DUP leader has not acted on his warning, arguing that he was allowing space for talks between the UK and EU.

In reality the party desperately wants a deal that it can sell as having achieved its vague aim of removing the Irish Sea border.

It would then seek to claim the credit by arguing its threats brought about the concessions, hoping this would defuse the protocol debate before the election.

However, UK-EU negotiations have slipped into the new year with no end in sight.

That has left Sir Jeffrey with the only option of repeating his threats in an increasingly unconvincing manner.

He said last week there will be "major implications" at Stormont if the UK government does not swiftly set a "clear date" for ending talks with Brussels.

He has also been warning the British government not to press ahead with its pledge to introduce Irish language legislation unless it secures action on the protocol.

Without any semblance of a deal the DUP can sell, the party is pushing itself closer towards the brink.

But collapsing the Executive during the Covid-19 pandemic - when the Omicron variant is causing pressures on hospitals and schools - would be entirely unjustifiable for many voters.

Significant legislation on issues including organ donation and climate change, which MLAs have been scrambling to pass before the current mandate ends, would also fall if Stormont goes down early.

Want the biggest political stories sent straight to you?

Each week, our Political Reporter Brendan Hughes pulls together some of the biggest and most important matters from Belfast and Northern Ireland that we think youd be interested in reading.

From the Northern Ireland Protocol to other thorny issues inside Stormont and exclusive interviews - weve got you covered.

Simply sign up to our free newsletter here and we'll do the rest

Therefore the DUP has to come up with something else to save its blushes over so much bluffing.

This is where the latest intervention from loyalist Jamie Bryson comes into play.

He has threatened legal action, claiming that port checks required by the protocol are unlawful because they have not received Executive approval.

A pre-action letter on behalf of a group he represents was sent to Agriculture Minister Edwin Poots, whose department oversees protocol-related checks at the ports.

The DUP minister has since confirmed he intends bringing a paper to ministers before the end of January.

This paper will not reach the Executive table, as Sinn Fin has already said it will block it from appearing on the agenda.

If this happens, Mr Poots said it "won't stop me carrying out my responsibilities which would be to stop the checks".

It is unclear whether the minister will indeed be able to order a halt to port checks, potentially placing the administration at odds with the UK government's legal duty to implement them.

Another DUP tactic could be to reheat former leader Peter Robinson's in-out ministers protest from 2015 in response to claims of IRA involvement in a Belfast man's murder.

Something like this would keep Stormont functioning while seeking to give the impression to unionist voters of a more hard-line response to the protocol.

Mr Robinson has been back in the fold since Sir Jeffrey became leader, so many will speculate his hand in manoeuvres over the coming months.

Another theory is that the DUP could be seeking to use its protocol objections as reasoning for refusing to re-form a power-sharing Executive after the election.

With polling suggesting Sinn Fin could emerge as the largest party for the first time, unionism is tetchy about re-entering the Executive in second place.

The many moving parts make events hard to predict. It will be a challenge for parties to hone their strategies in the battle for votes.

But like any chess match, you can be sure the players in this game are always thinking several moves ahead.

To get the latest breaking news straight to your inbox, sign up to our free newsletter.

See original here:

Brendan Hughes: The DUP's election strategy over Brexit NI Protocol - Belfast Live