UPDATE: Disturbance over the Bahamas could bring heavy rain to Florida – MyPalmBeachPost (blog)

Update 8 p.m.: The trough of low pressure over the Bahamas continues to produce disorganized shower activity with a 10 percent chance of becoming a tropical system. But it could bring heavy rain to portions of the Bahamas and Florida during the next day or two, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Meanwhile, another low-pressure system east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands has become a little better organized. Theres a 50 percent chance of development over the next five days.

Check the latest tropical outlook

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Update 2 p.m.: A small area of showers over the Bahamas was given a 10 percent chance of becoming a tropical system at the 2 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

Although development appears unlikely, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of the Bahamas and Florida during the next day or two, forecasters wrote.

Previous story: National Hurricane Center forecasters are keeping an eye on an area of disorganized showers that could become a tropical system during the weekend.

As of the 8 a.m. advisory, the center gave it a 40 percent chance of developing over the next five days. If the system gains tropical storm strength, it would be named Gert.

But first the trough of low pressure needs to clear an area of dry air and wind shear before it can emerge into conditions somewhat more conducive for development late this week.

Check The Palm Beach Post live storm tracking map.

This disturbance, dubbed Invest 99L, is about 600 miles east of the Leeward Islands and confusing computer models as far as where its headed and how strong it will get.

Designating a disturbance as an invest, short for investigation, is no indication of what the hurricane center thinks it will do, but does allow it to begin gathering more data on it.

Bob Henson, a meteorologist and blogger for Weather Underground called 99L tenacious.

In spite of relentlessly dry air and moderate wind shear, the wave has persisted, and it could yet gather strength once it moves into a zone with lesser wind shear near or just north of the Lesser Antilles late this week, he said.

Four hurricane graphics you should know before the next storm.

Henson said if a system does develop, it would likely be more of a threat to areas from Florida to North Carolina, rather than Virginia north.

The picture could easily change this far out, thoughespecially given the models recent flip-floppingand we have plenty of time to monitor the situation, Henson said.

Invest 99L has a 40 percent chance of development over the next five days.

Weather Channel expert Jim Cantore reminded viewers yesterday of the last time an invest designated 99L wandered in this area of the Atlantic.

It would become 2016s Hurricane Hermine the first storm to make landfall in Florida since Hurricane Wilma in 2005.

Hermine developed in the Florida Straits and zipped through the Gulf of Mexico to make landfall in the big bend area of Florida as a Category 1 storm.

Hurricane Hermine in 2016 was the first hurricane to hit Florida since 2005s Hurricane Wilma.

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UPDATE: Disturbance over the Bahamas could bring heavy rain to Florida - MyPalmBeachPost (blog)