The Peoples Republic of the Elderly? – The Times of India Blog

China may have been blamed for the coronavirus crisis but it is also responsible for a much bigger crisis that has been decades in the making. In a nutshell, the number of babies being born in China is at an all-time low while the number of people growing old is at an all-time high. Ironically, the worlds most populous nation is running out of babies.

An economy highly dependent on labour-intensive industries like construction, manufacturing and mining cannot afford a labour shortage. A fall in birth rate threatens to halt Chinas historic rise and Beijing knows this.

Ordinarily, nations face population stagnation after their citizens have reached high levels of economic well-being (Germany, South Korea, Japan etc). Relative to these, China is a poor country. Around 200 million Chinese still earn less than 5 dollars a day. The reason the Chinese population is on the brink of collapse is not socio-economic. It is political.

Unlike other nations, it has not been caused by an increase in female literacy or access to contraception. Instead, the primary cause of Chinas unnaturally low population growth rate is the one-child policy. This has forced single children to take care of both their parents and in some cases even their grandparents. Not only does this divert money out of the economy and into elderly care, but it also puts immense strain on workers who are expected to take care of up to 4 dependent family members (excluding their spouses side). Adding children to the mix rightfully frightens many.

Pressure on future parents is further compounded by the prohibitively high cost of quality Chinese education, and the absurdly costly housing market in cities. Furthermore, the Chinese workforce follows a grueling 996 schedule, where they work from 9 a.m. to 9 p.m. 6 days a week. This leaves very little time for family life. Lastly, the trends of increasing urbanisation (initially forced by the government) and atheism further inhibit population growth in China.

But if there is one thing the world should expect from the CCP, it is the unexpected. The State is trying to increase government-run family care to reduce the burden on parents. Furthermore, even if the government reduces the economic disincentive to have children, the culture formed over three generations of having only one child shall remain.

However, the CCP has experience in modifying birth rates. A few decades ago, while the rest of the world was horrified by forced population control, the Chinese government was actively practicing it. In the western provinces, growth rates are still in free fall. There is no reason for the government to not wield its authoritarian powers to simply force population growth. In Xinjiang, it was 1984. In the rest of China it might be the Handmaids Tale soon.

Views expressed above are the author's own.

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The Peoples Republic of the Elderly? - The Times of India Blog