Everything in moderation including moderates – POLITICO – Politico

THE BUZZ WHO DECIDES? Much post-recall punditry has posed an incredulous question: Why didnt the California Republican Party run a more moderate candidate?

In this reading, Gov. Gavin Newsoms landslide victory was enabled by a critical GOP misstep. If only the party had advanced a more centrist or mainstream candidate than replacement frontrunner Larry Elder, the theory goes, Newsom would not have been able to frame a no vote as the bulwark against encroaching Trumpism, as embodied by a Republican who opposes the minimum wage, ambitious climate change programs and abortion.

That analysis misses or oversimplifies some fundamental points about both the recalls dynamics and the larger dilemma confronting a diminished CAGOP. Most importantly, it conflates the preferences of party leadership with the will of the electorate. Right-leaning voters have spoken clearly by giving Elder nearly half of the replacement votes. Elders roughly 3.1 million votes tallied may be far behind the 4.2 million the victorious former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger piled up in 2003, demonstrating how many voters simply skipped the second question this time around. But no other Republican finished close behind Elder.

Heres where some pundits ask why the CAGOP didnt try to prevent this outcome by elevating a more moderate choice, like former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer. The answer there is simple: the party was following the electorate, not the other way around. Elder had already vaulted ahead of Faulconer in the polls and secured some notable conservative endorsements by the time the California Republican Party gathered to consider an endorsement. The party first raised the bar for winning its blessing and then decided against embracing any candidate.

That choice flowed from an understanding of Republican voters. The centrist Faulconer may have been the favorite of establishment Republicans and campaign pros, many of whom believed Faulconer had the greatest chance at stitching together a statewide majority that included independents and disillusioned Democrats. But the larger universe of Republican voters was tepid on Faulconer and energized by Elder. Its quite possible Faulconer could not have won that 60 percent majority. So the party made the strategic decision to sidestep a damaging brawl between its two main wings by bowing out of the replacement question and focusing on the recall question. Faulconer backed a non-endorsement.

BUT FOR ARGUMENTS SAKE ... Lets say Faulconer and his allies in the party had managed to claim the endorsement. That would have given Faulconer access to party resources, and he could have touted himself to voters as the CAGOPs choice. Those factors could have boosted Faulconers vote share, and perhaps set him up better for a 2022 rematch with Newsom. But would it have pushed him past Elder? Maybe, if you assume Republican voters behave as their party tells them to but thats a dubious proposition in a markedly anti-establishment era. A CAGOP endorsement may have even driven away indies or fence-sitting Democrats. You can bet Newsom would still have trained his fire on Elder, his ideal foil.

All of which gets us to the overarching dynamics that challenged the CAGOP before the recall and will continue to do so in its wake. As much as some in the party want to chart a more centrist course back to relevancy, plenty of loyal voters are still aligned with the Trumpier side of the party. As the immensely better funded California Democratic Party picks off moderate Republicans in swing seats, the further-right conservatives in turn increase their share of Republican-held offices and spots on the statewide bench.

BOTTOM LINE: You can lead voters to a moderate Republican. But you cant make them vote.

BUENOS DAS, good Thursday morning. If you had Former Defense Secretary James Mattis testifies in Elizabeth Holmes trial on your 2021 bingo card, congratulations you predicted Wednesdays surreal moment in this blockbuster Silicon Valley fraud case.

Got a tip or story idea for California Playbook? Hit [emailprotected] or [emailprotected] or follow us on Twitter @cmarinucci and @jeremybwhite.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: I did not feel better than 50/50 that we would win, so I was prepared to lose, but I did not think it was going to hurt as much. And I dont know what Im going to do next. I dont know whether Im going to run for a rematch I[ve] now become a politician. I enjoyed it more than I thought I would, and I miss talk radio less than I thought I would. Elder on his post-recall path, via the Ann & Phelim Scoop.

TWEET OF THE DAY: Progressive player @JosephNSanberg on Newsom vetoing a major farmworker union bill: I guess now that the recall is over, @GavinNewsom doesnt care about Farmworkers anymore

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