What Happens When AI Fighter Pilots Take to the Skies? – Wired.co.uk

In 2022, the pilot of an F-16 fighter jet will jink hard to the right and flick over into a roll, struggling to evade the plane behind them. They wont make it. Years of training and experience will suddenly become redundant. The AI algorithm controlling the chasing plane will have changed the face of war forever.

AI first demonstrated the sorts of aerobatic skills needed for dogfighting back in 2008. Andrew Ngs team at Stanford University developed an AI-piloted helicopter that learned how to perform stunts simply by watching human pilots. The question then was: how long could human pilots retain their edge?

The answer: not much longer. In August 2020, DARPA, the US Defense Departments research agency, said that an algorithm had defeated a human pilot in simulated aerial combat. Eight AI pilots fought against each other, with the winner, from Maryland-based Heron Systems, matched against an F-16 pilot in five simulated dog fights. The AI beat the human 5-0.

In 2021, China s own AI battled a human pilot, Fang Guoyu, a Group Leader in the Peoples Liberation Army Air Force. At first, it was not difficult to win, said Fang. But the AI learned from each encounter and by the end it was able to defeat him.

Beyond the simulator, the Pentagon says it intends to pit humans against machines in 2023. But with China forging ahead too, it is likely to pull this programme into 2022.

Militarised AI will bring many changes. With no pilot to consider, aircraft can be redesigned, allowing them to manoeuvre in ways no human could tolerate. It also makes scaling up air forces far easier than today, when it takes years to train those few humans skilled enough to be a fighter pilot. Soon we can expect large swarms of lightning-fast craft in the skies, all acting in concert. Small hordes are already being trialled in the US and elsewhere. While US Air Force generals imagine their new drones operating alongside humans as loyal wingmen, thats more a reflection of their cultural predilections than of the need to risk human pilots in the danger zone well-defended enemy airspace, with degraded communications.

The question, of course, is who will win, if those US and Chinese AI forces ever clash? An AI fighter-planes edge is in its algorithms, not its engines or missiles. That means constantly updating its programme to stay ahead of rival systems. 2022 will show us that future warfare will be a matter of skilful coding rather than courageous flying.

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What Happens When AI Fighter Pilots Take to the Skies? - Wired.co.uk