Never Mind Alexa: Why AI Obsession Echoes Past Hype Cycles – MediaPost Communications

For a moment in early 2013, it looked like Google Glass was going to change everything.

At the time, the product had been seeded to top influencers, so it wasnt unusual to see, for instance, Tumblr CEO David Karp wearing a pair in public. A Guardian column claimed that Google Glass would change the world and compared the invention to Gutenbergs printing press.

We all know how that turned out.

I cite the hype around Google Glass to illustrate how susceptible we all are to the belief that we can identify a paradigm-changing technology and predict its influence.

2013 wasnt that long ago, but weve already seen similar hype around the Apple Watch, virtual reality and now artificial intelligence. Now there is similar hype around AI and Amazons Alexa in particular.

While AI probably will have a major effect on our lives, its impact on life in 2017 will be minimal. Marketers would be better off focusing on whats available now rather than what might be here in the 2020s.

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The limitations of 2017 AI

Amazons cylindrical Echo device was, per the Economist in more than 4 million U.S. households before Christmas. It was the retailers top seller during this years holiday season so theres a good chance you know someone with an Echo.

This install base is greater than Google Glass so a change may be upon us. The reality, however, is that Echo is merely a novelty at this point.

Its worth noting that everything you can do with an Echo you could do with your phone two years ago. In fact, if you attach your phone to a set of speakers it is indistinguishable from Echo, except that youll be talking to Siri or Googles voice assistant.

Like Siri and Googles assistant, when you talk to Alexa, you realize youre talking to something thats artificial, but not all that intelligent.

As David Gerwitz at ZDNet has noted, Alexa doesnt handle natural language all that adeptly and doesnt make the logical jumps you would expect from a sophisticated system. For example, when Gerwitz asked Alexa to play Preservation Hall Jazz Band, hed get the same frustrating message that it was not in his music library, but if he added on Pandora, then Alexa would get the gist.

The other issue with voice control is that it offers limited use cases. Do it on the subway and youll annoy anyone within 12 feet. Similarly, voice-control systems in cars have proven to be distracting for drivers. It is also plagued with problems ranging from background noise to an inability to understand voice command.

As for AI itself, while the technology is making huge strides, at this point, it is merely pattern recognition. As Mark Zuckerberg has said: People who work in AI arent scared of The Singularity because no one actually understands how the human brain works and how real thinking works.

Focusing on 2017

None of this is to say that AI wont become a transformational technology over time. But such a transformation is still years away. In 2017, the smartphone is the key device. IoT devices are still niche. That will probably change over time. However, its too early to prep a zero user interface strategy when the vast majority of activity is happening on phones.

Speaking of phones, lets recall how a truly transformational product, the iPhone, was actually received when it launched in 2007. Though some, like Walt Mossberg, accurately predicted the phone would herald a new era, others groused about its lack of a qwerty keyboard and sniffed that it wasnt as cool as a BlackBerry.

Recall too, that few thought the iPod would be a big deal, either.

As German philosopher Arthur Schopenhauer once said, all truth passes through three stages. First it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.

Sounds like Google Glass is on the right path after all.

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Never Mind Alexa: Why AI Obsession Echoes Past Hype Cycles - MediaPost Communications