In Iowa, Rand Paul's disparate 2016 needs collide to his detriment

Ron Paul spent much of his presidential campaigns serving as the crank on the debate stage. But here in Iowa in 2012, he finished a strong third, the beneficiary of an outpouring of libertarian love.

Now his son Rand Paul has embarked on his own run for the White House, and he hopes to be embraced by his fathers passionate followers. But to avoid his fathers fate at the end, less a serious contender than an asterisk Rand Paul must pull off a far harder task, convincingnot only his fathers backers but voters of other stripes that they should side with him.

Already in Iowa, where Paul campaigned Friday, the difficulties are obvious. Drew Ivers, who ran the fathers Iowa campaigns in 2008 and 2012, is undecided about whether he will support the son. He cites policy changes Rand Paul has made in his effort to broaden his appeal.

His "voting record is good, but his rhetoric over the last two years as he ramped up for his announcement has deviated from his voting record," Ivers said. "He is sending some mixed signals."

In other states and in other presidential election years, solidifying libertarian support would not be a priority. But with an enormous potential field of GOP candidates and the outsized voice of Iowans, who hold the first presidential nominating contest in the nation, consolidating their support is critical for a self-described "libertarian-ish" candidate like Paul. Even a small amount of defection could harm his chances, given the tiny number of Iowans who actually participate in the states caucuses.

In 2012, about 121,000 GOP voters caucused here, with Ron Paul claiming 21% of the vote, 3% less than the winner, former Sen. Rick Santorum. Pauls ardent backers then engineered a hostile takeover of the state Republican Party, leading the lions share of Iowas delegates to cast ballots for the Texas congressman at the Republican National Convention.

Political observers and even operatives who are supporting other candidates widely expect Rand Paul to hold on to many of these activists.

The Rev. Glen Bandel, a part-time pastor at Nora Springs Christian Church, is among those who endorsed the elder Paul and plan to caucus for the son.

"Hes No. 1 on my list," said Bandel, 86. "Theyre not the same. Theyre not identical. Theyre two separate individuals but theyve both got some pretty good ideas." Rand Paul, he said, "looks pretty conservative."

The candidate says retaining such backers is key to his prospects.

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In Iowa, Rand Paul's disparate 2016 needs collide to his detriment