Insiders view Paul as strong early state contender

On the eve of his expected presidential announcement, Republican insiders in Iowa and New Hampshire say Rand Paul is a top contender in those early states next year and they agree that for better and for worse, his father, Ron Paul, looms large over his candidacy.

According to this weeks survey of the POLITICO Caucus, a bipartisan group of political operatives, activists and key players from Iowa and New Hampshire, about two-thirds of all respondents said Paul can win their state in the caucuses or primary. But to do so, many said, the Kentucky senator has to build on the base cultivated by his father, the libertarian icon and former presidential candidate.

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While former Rep. Ron Pauls network of supporters is proving to be an asset, the elder Pauls isolationist views which many associate with Rand Paul are also contributing to what is by far the senators biggest liability: his positions on foreign policy and national security. A majority of respondents, when asked an open-ended question about Pauls greatest weakness, pointed to one or the other.

Sixty-three percent of all respondents said they consider Rand Paul an isolationist, and only 16 percent think he could beat Hillary Clinton in a general election a number that ticks up to 24 percent among Republican insiders.

He needs to distance himself from some of his fathers positions, said one nonpartisan insider. In particular, that means foreign policy. It seems foreign policy/international relations issues may be more important than usual this cycle, so its even more important that he finds a position acceptable to a broader group of GOP voters. The problem with doing so is that moving away from his fathers positions carries the risk of alienating the libertarian voters who are his base.

Rand Paul, who is expected to announce his presidential candidacy next Tuesday in Louisville, has long bristled at attempts to link his views too closely with those of his father, a former GOP Texas congressman who continues to weigh in with his controversial views on foreign policy. The senator, while less interventionist in orientation than many of his likely competitors, has stressed that he believes in a strong national defense and has made a concerted effort to reassure activists and donors leery of his father that he is sufficiently supportive of Israel.

At the outset of the 2016 race, Ron Paul is viewed as providing an edge to his son. Fifty-seven percent of all respondents called the elder Paul a net positive, pointing to the built-in base of libertarian support in Iowa and New Hampshire, left over from his 2008 and 2012 presidential bids, that Rand Paul can tap into.

With a huge field of candidates, Rand Paul has one advantage most other candidates dont enjoy, he essentially owns one segment of the caucus electorate, said one unaffiliated Iowa Republican, who, like all POLITICO Caucus members, was granted anonymity to speak freely. If Paul can turn out the 26,000-plus people who voted for his father in 2012, I like his chances in this current field of candidates.

One New Hampshire Republican who is backing Jeb Bush added, Rand needs to hold the Ron Paul base, pick up some establishment support, and hope that the other candidates divide up the rest of the vote. Its a tough path, but not out of the question.

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Insiders view Paul as strong early state contender