The Fix: Rand Pauls libertarian electability argument and its limits

Sen. Rand Paul is reportedly set to announce his presidential campaign in April. And(timing!) his supporters are happily pointingto newQuinnipiac polls of three key swing states, which show for a change that a Republican is running neck-and-neck with Hillary Clinton.

That Republican, of course,is Paul.

Of particular interest are the results inColorado and Virginia, where Clinton narrowly leads Paul 43-41 percent and 44-42 percent, respectively within the margin of error. No other Republican is so close in the three states polled the third being Iowa. And that includes Jeb Bush, who is tied in Virginia but lags in the two other states.

A sampling of the Twitter analysis:

All the usual caveats of early polling, of course, apply here. This poll predicts nothing, but it does give a sense of *very early* views of the candidates.

And thoughit's a good picture for Paul, it's also not that surprising. Colorado and Virginia, after all,should be some of his better states.

The former is known as the birthplace of the American libertarian movement. And a 2009 study from George Mason University ranked it as the second most-libertarian state in the country when it cameto "personal and economic freedom."

And Virginia, while not renowned for its libertarian streak, per se, gave Ron Paul 40 percent of the vote in his 2012 primary match-up with Mitt Romney his best showing in any state. It's worth qualifying that they were the only two candidatesonVirginia's ballot (in contrast to other contests around that time) making Ron Paul the only so-called non-Romney option and likely inflating his total at least somewhat. But 40 percent for a Paul is still 40 percent for a Paul.

And there's plenty of evidence of Virginia moving more toward libertarianism, up to and including Robert Sarvis, who had the third-best showing ever for a libertarian gubernatorial candidate in Virginia's 2013 governor's race.

None of this, we would emphasize, is to diminish Paul's case for electability. In fact, it's part and parcel of it. That's because both of these states and other more libertarian stateslike Nevada and New Hampshire arguably the most libertarian state in the country just happen to beswing states in 2016. And Republicans would love to have a candidate who runs well in these states. Paul could be that guy, at least in theory.

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The Fix: Rand Pauls libertarian electability argument and its limits