Russia’s great wall | TheHill – The Hill

China built a wall to protect against foreign invaders, but Russia is erecting a barrier that could weaken its position. On its western border from Finland in the north to Georgia in the south, Russia has pressured neighbors and caused NATO to deploy more military force close to Russia. The Kremlin probably did not intend to hand NATO this opportunity.

Russia uses hard power intimidation, coercion, disinformation so often that the Kremlin may underrate the capacity or will of neighbors to resist. Seemingly aware of these risks, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has warned ofNATOs unprecedented plans tomove toward our bordersand involve neutral countries like Sweden and Finland in its military exercises.

Moscows pressure on neighbors has spurred NATO to bolster its presence in Russiasimmediate vicinitythrough such means as land power in Poland, air and naval power in Romania, and warship patrols in the Baltic and Black Seas.

A waryFinlandis enhancing cooperation with NATO by making forces interoperable.Sweden, a target of Russianair and navalharassment, is implementing itsbiggest military budget increase in 70 years and expanding its armed forces by half.

The Baltics perceive greater threats. In 2007, Moscow conducted a large-scalecyber-attack on Estonia,and it wages constantinformation war. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are responding with whole-of-societyresilience and resistance, including unconventional warfare. They eagerly host rotatingbattalion-sized NATO units.

In Moldova last November a pro-Western candidate won a presidential vote by a landslideagainst an incumbent who appears to have taken Russian payments. Moldova is working withNATO to reformand modernize defense and security structures.

Aggression in Ukraine has spurred a strong reaction from the U.S. and NATO. After Russia in 2014 seized and annexed UkrainesCrimearegion and launched a still simmeringwar in eastern Ukraine, the West began providing Ukraine far more military support than it ever expected. Ukraines armed forces numberover a millionactive and reserve personnel, and their potency is growing.

The U.S. has provided over$1.7 billionin military aid to Ukraine, including$250 million approved by Congress last summer. Most has gone for training and for equipment such as counter-fire radar, Javelin anti-armor missies andnaval patrol boats. OtherNATO cooperationis underway. Contrary to ambivalence prior to Russias invasion, Ukraine now seesNATO membershipas the countrys strategic course.Western military aid to Ukraine also helpstie downsome of Russias military power, which could threaten Western interests elsewhere.

On a more modest scale, the West is assistingGeorgiato strengthen its territorial defenses, following Russias 2008 war and the occupation of Georgias Abkhazia and South Ossetian regions. Popular support in Georgia for joining NATO is strong.

On Russias European border this leaves only Belarus as a close partner. Since the outbreak last August of hugestreet protestsagainst the regime of President Alexander Lukashenko, Moscow has taken sides. It has sent propagandists to help Lukashenko disorient Belarusians, and it is promotingmilitary integration. A massive joint military exercise next fall could see substantial Russian forces flowing into Belarus.

If at some point Lukashenko were to falter and the Kremlin used force to forestall the emergence of a more democratic government, the U.S. and NATO might consider deploying even more force in the alliances eastern flank, especially Poland.

An eastward surge was not foreseen when the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act came into force. It vaguely promised that in the current and foreseeable security environment NATO would eschew additional permanent stationing of substantial combat forces in new member states. NATO has abided by this pledge, dispatching only rotational forces.

Because much Russian transport though Ukraine is severed, Belarus is more important to Moscowssubstantialtradewith the EU. Any reduction in this accesscould reduce the reliability of energy transit to Europe, raise trade costs and barriers, and hinder Russias ability to take economic advantage of its favorable geography between China and Europe. Economic competitors could exploit Russias diminished access.

Absent Russias overuse of hard power against neighbors, NATO would likely not have moved so much military presence so close to Russia. If it were to use substantial force against the people of Belarus, NATO might further bulk up its eastern flank.For example, aRAND studyrecommends that NATO deploy brigades, not just battalions, to the Baltics.

WilliamCourtneyis an adjunct senior fellow at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation and a former U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan, Georgia and the U.S.-Soviet commission to implement the Threshold Test Ban Treaty.

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Russia's great wall | TheHill - The Hill