Space: The Final Frontier – Forbes

Astronaut space walking outside space station.

We have become a planetary species. Evolving from tool-using hominids on the African savanna to the dominant species on the planet, technology has been key to our evolution. The use of technology to drive non-biological solutions to social and environmentalchallenges has affected the scope and direction of our evolution. In fact, it is now driving our expansion beyond the Earth itself.

Much as the Industrial Revolution ignited therise of the United Statesand other advanced economies, so a new generation of disruptive technologies is now shaping an engineering revolution.The combination of artificial intelligence (AI), automation, and new space-based industries suggests that we have entered a new era one that more closely mirrors science fiction than the factory-driven, industrial society of the past century.

In this software-driven era, humanitys promethean urge for technological advancement is now propelling our species towards an interplanetary existence. Indeed, it is almost a forgone conclusion that by the end of this century, we Homo sapiens will have expanded beyond the Earth terraforming Mars for human habitation. This instinct for expansion is also driving a planetary consciousness and planetary identity.

The scale of this cultural transformation is mediated by technological advancement and global integration, but it is rooted in an evolving capacity to see the Earth as a whole system. This psychological reframing mirrors the radically enlarged perspective described by astronauts when viewing the earth from space. Indeed, the term for this cognitive shift is the overview effect and it constitutes the basis of an emerging planetary worldview.

Astronaut is looking at Earth through the porthole.

The New Space Race

In the United States, NASA has already begun planning a new habitation platform around the Moon. Moving beyond the International Space Station (ISS), NASA is working to commercialize spaceflight in low Earth orbit (LEO) with the broader purpose of going into deep space. This shift in the nature of space exploration: from a government-directed presence in LEO to a public-private ecosystem is igniting a fully-fledged space economy. According to Merrill Lynch, this space economy will be worth a staggering $3 trillion by 2050.

Together, commercial pioneers like Blue Origin, Virgin Galactic, Orion Span, SpaceX, SNC, OneWeb and Boeing are pouring enormous resources into frontier industries crisscrossing satellite infrastructure, communications, solar energy, reusable rockets, asteroid mining, and space tourism. Indeed, Elon Musks SpaceX has already begun deploying over 12,000 LEO satellites to provide low-latency broadband internet infrastructure on a planetary scale.

While satellite broadband is expected to drive the lions share of wealth creation, near-Earth asteroid mining is forecast to eventually become a multi-trillion dollar industry. Venture interest is growing in mining asteroids for scarce commercial resources including cobalt, iron, and nickel, as well as precious metalsgold, silver, and platinum and even water. Meanwhile, space tourism is expected to generate a sizable $850 billion by 2030.

Little boy in a porthole,spaceship porthole, viewing earth.

Becoming a Planetary Species

Of course, the United States is not the only country with plans on space. Russia, the European Union, India, Japan, and China are all investing in advanced space programs. This includes planned missions to the moon and Mars, and designs on deep space exploration. In fact, Chinas ambitions include a permanentChinese space stationby 2022, and crewed expeditions to theMoon by 2024.

As new mission-driven organizations compete to develop a commercial presence in space, the proliferation of space-based industries will mean a substantially larger global innovation ecosystem. Access to abundant resources and the engineering of space-based technologies could drive frontier industries both on Earth and off-planet.

In the context of energy generation, researchers at the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) are exploring the design of a LEO solar power station for 2035. Chinasambitious plans for a 200-tonne space-based solar powerstationwill be designed to capture the Sun'senergy and beam it back to earth as electricity. The solar power station could generate some 2GW of power (more energy output than the Hoover Dam).

The competition between the Unites States and the Soviet Union in the 1950s, inspired the development of revolutionary technologies that shaped the global economy for generations. The internet, telecommunications, advanced transistors, GPS, weather forecasting, and rocket technologies all led to what we now call the digital age.Given the scope of innovation shaping the coming decades, questions about managing a space economy have become unavoidable.

Mars colony. Expedition on alien planet. Life on Mars.

But How to Govern Space?

One of the key questions in managing a space economy is the nature of its governance. Notwithstanding the United Nations-sponsoredOuter Space Treaty of 1967, a legal vacuum in the governance of space remains a substantial challenge in overseeing what could be the next commercial gold rush.

Unfortunately, the key problem in governing space is that laws are rooted to the Earth. And this highlights the cognitive shift at the heart of the overview effect. How exactly do Earth-bound nation-states govern the expanse of space? Given the general lack of clarity over the ownership of space resources and the ambiguity surrounding the laws that govern space, there remains substantial legal and regulatory hurdles to overcome.

Space mining, for example, suggests the need for a much closer symbiosis between the public and private sectors in the governance of space-based industries. Leaving market forces to govern a nascent gold rush in space could be a recipe for tragedy and misadventure. At the same time, moving mining off-planet could help relieve the ongoing destruction of the Earth and its environment.

Responding to the challenge of a space economy will require specialized institutions designed to augment the authority of nation-states in the shared governance of space. This will mean new rules, new protocols, and new laws that govern a complex planetary civilization. What is clear is that we share this fragile planet with some 8 billion fellow humans and another 8 million other species. We will need to advance our capacities to safeguard it.

For the past six decades, astronauts have described the profound experience of seeing the Earth as a planet embedded in a universe of stars. Now even as we enter a new planetary era characterized by both technological advancement and climate crisis, a robust space industry is opening the way to a multi-planetary existence and a new stage in human evolution. We are becoming an interplanetary species.

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Space: The Final Frontier - Forbes