Sham Stakes 2021: Odds and analysis – Horse Racing Nation

Even though the Grade 3, $100,000 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita is only a five-horse field, this is an interesting group that could showcase a future star or two in the making. This stop on the trail is a one-mile event on Saturday for 3-year-olds.

The public will flock towards Life Is Good based on the ease of his maiden score and trainer Bob Baffert. However, his win is not a guarantee given the longer distance. Instead, bettors might want to give one of the two John Shirreffs entries a chance.

The Sham Stakes is carded as Race 8 with a post time of 4 p.m. PT.

1. Medina Spirit, 5-1 (Protonico Bob Baffert/Abel Cedillo 1: 1-0-0 - $25,200) --The other Baffert entry broke his maiden at Los Alamitos at first asking by three lengths on Dec. 11. TimeformUS only gave him a 99 figure for the win, well below Life Is Goods high of 113 or Parnellis 111. Also, he won at 5 furlongs and now stretches out to a two-turn mile. For what it is worth, the third dam Holy Niner is a half-sister to High Yield, who won the 2000 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G1) and Blue Grass Stakes (G1).

Also, seeing names such as Dynaformer and Unbridled on the dam side is comforting when assessing his route chances. This is a colt who could develop into a nice router. Then again, Life Is Good already smoked this colt twice in the mornings, once on Nov. 9 and the other time on Nov. 16. The replays of those works are available on XBTV. Medina Spirit is a pass on top, but exacta players might want to consider him on the bottom for some value. Use underneath.

2. Waspirant, 15-1 (Union Rags John Shirreffs/Umberto Rispoli 3: 1-0-0 - $54,300) --The son of the brilliant Life Is Sweet broke his maiden in a slow manner on Aug. 29 at Del Mar, and then was an uninspiring fourth in the American Pharoah Stakes (G1), losing by 10 lengths. For those who do not remember the dam Life Is Sweet, she took the 2009 Breeders Cup Distaff and won $1.8 million in her career under Shirreffs.

Given Waspirants stamina-loaded pedigree of Union Rags over Life is Sweet, this ones future success might lie in races at nine furlongs or longer. Toss.

3. Parnelli, 5/2 (Quality Road John Shirreffs/Drayden Van Dyke 4: 1-3-0 - $67,600) --On TimeformUS, this Shirreffs-trained colt is not far behind Life Is Good. Two starts ago, Parnelli ran a 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure when runner-up to Spielberg in a Nov. 1 maiden race at Del Mar. That is only two points less than Life Is Goods 113 in his maiden romp. Parnelli then broke his maiden on Nov. 28 by 5 lengths with only a 103, but the lower figure is forgivable given he competed against lesser competition and did not need his best.

Both races came at one mile, giving him the route experience edge over Life Is Good. Spielberg was a disappointment in the Bob Hope Stakes (G3), but then fired back with a win in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). The feeling is that Parnelli met the good version of Spielberg at Del Mar in their stretch duel and deserves heavy consideration off that effort against a proven graded stakes horse. He has been developing along nicely and figures to peak. The pick.

4. Uncle Boogie, 15-1 (Ride On Curlin Andrew Lerner/Flavien Prat 3: 1-2-0 - $39,650) --After finishing second in a starter optional claimer, Uncle Boogie ran second in the Bob Hope Stakes (G3), 7 lengths behind Red Flag. While Uncle Boogie did beat Spielberg in fourth, Spielberg likely did not fire his best shot. Also, Red Flag missed the trifecta in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) in his next start. If Uncle Boogie upsets this field, there is no point to class handicapping in the future. Toss.

5. Life Is Good, 3/5 (Into Mischief Bob Baffert/Mike Smith 1: 1-0-0 - $34,200) --The heavy favorite broke his maiden by 9 lengths at Del Mar with a 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure under a hand ride. For a 2-year-old colt in November, that is a great number. But the question of whether he can stretch out to one mile remains a concern at short odds. Remember the lesson of Red Flag in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) earlier this month?

If the favorite tries something new, whether a different surface or distance, then it is logical to play against him. With that said, he could also handle the one-mile distance and develop into another top Kentucky Derby contender sired by Into Mischief. Life Is Good is usable in multi-race tickets, but there is no point to vertical wagers keying him given his extremely low odds. Win contender.

Conclusion:

In terms of a Win or Place bet, Parnelli is the right horse. He shows a solid speed figure that is competitive with Life Is Good and owns successful route experience. If the public puts six figures on Life Is Good to Show in a bridgejumping situation (which is rare these days), then consider a Show bet on Parnelli or Medina Spirit.

For multi-race wager purposes, both Parnelli and Life is Good deserve a spot.

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Sham Stakes 2021: Odds and analysis - Horse Racing Nation