COVID-19 recovery spending could catalyze transformative change, but time is running out | TheHill – The Hill

Imagine it's 2050 and the world is well on its way to meeting the goals set out in the Paris Climate Agreement. Use of coal, oil, and gas has fallen drastically. Energy and materials are used efficiently. Public transportation thrives; the worlds cities are green, dense, and walkable.Because this green boom was designed by diverse stakeholders with environmental justice in mind, it has created more equitable societies around the world.Everyone agrees, these huge shifts began in the early 2020s with the economic recovery from COVID-19.

That's a thought experiment, of course, but it could be a reality. A recentpaperin the journalSciencecalculated that if 10 percent of the $12 trillion already committed to economic recovery were invested in clean energy and energy efficiency, the world could be on a path to meeting the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement. Instead of the modest rate of decarbonization that is currently underway, investments could steer economies strongly away from fossil fuels.

Properly designed, that turn away from fossil fuels could also improve racial, gender, and economic equity. For instance,researchersargue that energy efficiency assistance to African Americans can improve health and provide an equitable solution to energy insecurity. In Portland, Ore., a tree planting program lead to a decrease in violent crime;researchers foundthe effect was greatest in low-income neighborhoods. Tree planting is an efficiency measure that reduces energy needed for cooling and has been shown toimprove mental health and community trust. A solar-powered drip irrigationprojectin Benin improved crop production, income level, and food security for women farmers.

These examples show that, nationally and globally, a COVID-19 recovery could advance climate and equity goals. Unfortunately, this opportunity is not being grasped to its full potential. According to theEnergy Policy Tracker,less than half of global recovery investments in the energy sector are green. Analysis by theRhodium Groupshows that nearly a fifth of the European Unions recovery spending could be considered green, but most countries have made far weaker commitments. So far, India, China and the U.S. are all directing less than 3 percent of their planned recovery spending in a "green" direction.

While green investments and policies can increase equity, it is hard to say if the green elements of recovery plans put forth so far will be equitable.

The mostcomprehensive databaseof stimulus spending, maintained by the IMF, shows little standardization or consistency on equity provisions. When equity considerations do figure into a countrys stimulus package, they rarely apply to green investment. The handful of national plans that integrate equity considerations and green investments are vague and difficult to quantify. Some countries COVID-19 stimulus packages refer to a just transition, but fail to specify how funds will be spent in an equitable way.

In other words, not much of the worlds planned recovery spending protects the future climate. Of the small fraction that will be green, not much is explicitly designed to be equitable.

There are some exceptions, though, and this is good news. Around the world, bright spots show the potential for COVID-19 funds to fight climate change while simultaneously increasing equity. For example:

These isolated examples represent possibility. But how can that possibility be realized on a larger scale?

On the climate side it is fairly straightforward. From big renewable infrastructure projects to weatherization of the smallest dwellings, recovery dollars should be poured into the clean energy economy. Public transportation, faltering as riders opt for other modes of transport during the pandemic, provides another opportunity for massive investments that can spur recovery, provide good jobs, and keep cities moving. And avoid investment in infrastructure for extracting and burning fossil fuels.

To seize the equity opportunity, decision makers must recognize that equity never improves by accident. Green investments produce improved equity only with intentional planning, which can take many forms. For example:

If enough money is injected into an economy, recovery will happen. But struggling communities around the world are calling for more than recovery. They are calling for a transformation that includes justice and decisive climate action. Visionary leaders, like those behind the projects weve described above, are showing that a transformative recovery is possible. But it wont happen by accident and it wont happen with the plans currently on the books. Theres still time for a transformative recovery, but theres less of it every day.

Cassandra Breeze Ceballos is the Multisolving Program Associate and Elizabeth Sawin is Co-Founder and Co-Director ofClimate Interactivea think-tank that helps people find solutions to climate change and related issues like equity, health, food, and water. You can learn more aboutmultisolvingon Climate Interactives website, where you can also explore adatabaseof green, resilient, equitable recovery measures being taken around the world. You can alsofollow Sawin on Twitter.

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COVID-19 recovery spending could catalyze transformative change, but time is running out | TheHill - The Hill