A tale of two elections | State & Region | register-herald.com – Beckley Register-Herald

Call it a tale of two elections, for it was indeed the best of times and the worst of times. Which year qualified as best and which was the worst depended on what side of the political aisle a candidate occupied.

Greenbrier Valley Democrats had reason to feel the tide had turned in their favor with the midterm election of 2018, when they captured both seats in the 42nd Delegate District, as well as other key offices. Vote tallies were tight, but Jeff Campbell and Cindy Lavender-Bowe, both of Lewisburg, were on their way to the Legislature, having defeated Republicans Denny R. Canterbury and Steve Malcomb.

With a smattering of similar results elsewhere in the state, Democrats found themselves giddy over what appeared to be a blue wave.

Turning the page to 2020, however, the fortunes of the two major political parties had reversed, as GOP candidates wrested away both of the 42nd Districts seats in the House in convincing fashion in the Nov. 3 general election. A red wave swept Barry L. Bruce and Todd Longanacre to the beachhead where Delegates Lavender-Bowe and Campbell once stood.

What accounted for that stark difference in outcomes between two elections held a mere two years apart?

For answers to that question, The Register-Herald turned to the four 2020 candidates and aperson with a longer view of the local political scene to get their perspectives.

Bruce, Lavender-Bowe and Longanacre participated in separate telephone interviews for this article, and Campbell responded in writing to similar questions set forth in an email.

Greenbrier County Commission President Lowell Rose, a Republican who was re-elected for a third six-year term in that office earlier this month, also participated in a telephone interview, offering his assessment of the race for the 42nd.

There are inherent differences between a midterm election like the one in 2018, in which the presidents party is expected to lose ground and voter turnout is typically low, and a presidential election year like 2020, in which more people vote and national issues dominate the airwaves.

In 2018, 22,267 votes were cast for all four candidates in the 42nd District contest, while in 2020 the vote total for that race was 27,951.

The 42nd Delegate District includes 28 of Greenbrier Countys 29 precincts, along with three precincts in Monroe County and one in Summers.

The Trump effect

Both Campbell and Lavender-Bowe stated that a major factor in the Republican victories at all levels this year in West Virginia, not just the 42nd District race, was the popularity hereabouts of President Donald Trump.

The top of the GOP ticket was stronger in 2020 than it was two years ago, Campbell wrote. President Trump is wildly popular in our district and through the state, and everyone was riding his coattails (in 2020).

In 2018, Senator Joe Manchin was at the top of the (Democratic) ticket and, locally, state Senator Stephen Baldwin was on the ballot.

Also, the Greenbrier County Republicans worked hard flipping voter registrations (this year).

By the time the general election was held this fall, registered Republicans outnumbered registered Democrats in the county for the first time in decades.

Commissioner Rose, who has often reached across the aisle in his political career, added his voice to Campbells assertion that the strength of the Republicans perched at the top of the ticket made a huge difference this year.

It had a whole lot to do with President Trump and his popularity here, Rose said. West Virginia has really changed overall from Democrat to Republican, including in voter registration.

Even Greenbrier Countys chief election officer, County Clerk Robin Loudermilk, recently changed parties. Appointed in 2012 and later elected to that same office as a Democrat, Loudermilk flipped her registration to Republican earlier this year.

Longanacre also cited the Trump effect in explaining his own success this year, although for different reasons than those given by his Democratic counterparts.

President Trump has had four years fighting against everyone Democrats and the media, Longanacre said. People were so fed up over all of this hatred of Trump that they flipped parties in revenge.

We rode the red wave.

Loud national messages

The national messaging of both parties loomed large over the local political scene, effectively overshadowing persistent West Virginia issues such as poverty, health care concerns and education, Lavender-Bowe said.

The tone of the election was really different this time, she said. There wasnt much of a national focus in 2018, but the president and the governor were a big factor this year.

She also pointed to the social and civil unrest across the country in the run-up to the election as a related factor that nudged people toward the Republican message.

Being constantly bombarded by scenes of violence and reports about protests on television and social media it was really terrifying for people, especially older people, Lavender-Bowe said. People voted the way they felt would keep them the safest.

Longanacre said he felt the 2020 election reflected a backlash against the Democratic Partys disdain for core American values.

People are kind of nervous. Theyre afraid of what they see as Communism being put forward by Democrats as Socialism, he said. Voters didnt like the animosity of the Democratic Party the way they treat people for living by the Bible and being pro-life.

Bruce also reflected on the rightward drift of the electorate.

Theres been a red wave in Raleigh, Mercer and Pocahontas counties as well as the counties of the 42nd, he said. One reason I decided to run this year is that Im a Constitutionalist and a Christian. I see our Constitutional rights eroding away at both the state and federal levels.

We need law and order in this country. Theres fear that what is happening elsewhere will happen in West Virginia.

Campbell wrote, I think the national political climate worked its way down to local races throughout the state. Although Washington politics and Charleston politics are two different things, there are polarizing figures in D.C. that West Virginians dont like.

He said he believes the end result was down-ballot voting in which people voted more for the party than for the person.

A philosophical shift

When Rose looks at the bigger picture, his perception is quite different from the Democrats viewpoint.

While stating that Republicans had stronger candidates in the race for House seats representing the 42nd this year, Rose said the philosophical shift that led local voters to favor the GOP over the Democratic Party was not really about restlessness in the electorate. Its rooted more in the Democratic Partys relocation to the left of center.

The Democrats swung way too far to the liberal side; they left old-time Democrats behind, he said. Theres a big difference in ideals between conservative and liberal candidates. Everybody was ready this year for more conservative tickets. Theres a conservative movement in this country.

Although he characterized both Democratic candidates in the 42nd as liberal, Rose said Lavender-Bowe publicly embraces more liberal ideas than does Campbell.

I was surprised that we (Republicans) got both seats in the House, Rose said. I wasnt surprised that Cindy is out, due to her positions. I have nothing against her personally, but she is liberal on a lot of issues.

Lavender-Bowe said she wanted to run a positive campaign, and for that reason had not responded to Republicans negative mailers that labeled her as a pro-abortion candidate (she self-identifies as pro-choice, as well as pro-mother and pro-child) who was part of the Harris-Biden squad.

Complex issues cant be adequately discussed in a mailer, Lavender-Bowe said. Im not going to run a dirty campaign. I ran as myself.

She added, Its hard for me to think my message didnt resonate with the voters. They got the national message instead, and it really impacted down the ballot.

She said the national message included unfair attempts to link down-ballot Democratic candidates with controversial initiatives such as defunding the police.

Facing an effective Republican campaign filled with what she termed negativity and aggressiveness on social media, Lavender-Bowe said she was personally hampered by the restrictions necessitated by the Covid-19 pandemic, given the fact that both her husband and her son have asthma, making them more vulnerable to the virus.

On the other hand, Longanacre said he had no personal concerns over Covid-19 during the campaign.

I didnt stick my head in the sand over a virus with a 99.9 percent recovery rate, he said. I knocked on doors. I got out and met people. That had a positive impact. My opponents didnt do that. They relied on mailers.

Support for gun rights also loomed large over this years election, according to Bruce.

We are a state that supports the Second Amendment, he said. Both Todd and I were strong there. People just didnt like the positions of the incumbents in this race. West Virginia is a conservative state and wants to remain a conservative state.

Reviewing and revamping

Lavender-Bowe said the states Democratic Party needs to figure out how to better present its message.

The first time I ran (in 2018), there were lots of town halls held around the district, she said. It was easier for somebody to hear your voice and see your face as you discussed issues.

Monetarily, our party doesnt donate to candidates; instead the focus is on getting out the vote, which was fine in 2018. But this year, with the pandemic, our volunteers offered rides to the polls, only to find nobody wanted a ride to the polls. Its harder to get people to get out and vote during a pandemic.

Lavender-Bowe said she and other Democratic candidates are now evaluating the failures of 2020.

Were asking how do we rebuild the Democratic Party in West Virginia, she said. I believe we can best change at the grassroots level by restoring voters face-to-face contact with candidates and capitalizing on our volunteers. In that, were lucky in Greenbrier County with our Democratic Womens Club. So many counties dont have that kind of organization.

Campbell also wrote of the support his modest campaign received this year from the Blue Skies Ahead PAC and the Greenbrier County Democratic Womens Club, which organized a county headquarters and assisted with advertising.

On the other hand, he was blunt in saying he received no help from the state Democratic Party.

But he said he certainly doesnt regret his stint in the West Virginia Legislature.

I worked hard, tried to do a good job, and ran a clean campaign, Campbell wrote. Im glad I got to live my dream. It was an honor working at the State Capitol, and I never took one day for granted.

Ive been surprised by the number of people whove reached out to me since election day. It makes me feel appreciated and that I did something right while I was there.

Both Bruce and Longanacre praised the support they received from the Greenbrier County Republican Executive Committee and Republican Club.

It was remarkable, Bruce commented, citing assistance ranging from door-knocking support to maintaining multiple party offices all across the district,plus a well-attended pre-election rally at the fairgrounds and a Trump Train of vehicles that may have been the largest in the state.

This was a team effort high energy, Bruce said. When you have high school kids walking around with you while youre campaigning, it adds to your energy.

Lavender-Bowe said, as a candidate and a delegate, she has encountered many West Virginians who say theyve never voted. People close to her sons age think their votes dont matter because of what theyve seen in the media about the impact the Electoral College has had on recent presidential elections, at times rewarding the loser of the popular vote with the highest office in the land.

We need to empower our people, Lavender-Bowe said. I saw reports during this election that other states had the highest numbers of voters in history. One reason for that is that those voters had the opportunity to vote in a different way. Meanwhile, in West Virginia, people said the election didnt fit their schedules. They said they didnt have time to vote while the polls were open either on election day or during early in-person voting. And I assume other people didnt go to the polls because they were afraid of Covid.

She said she also heard from constituents who were confused about the process for requesting an absentee ballot. People expected that they would receive an application automatically, as they had before the summer primary, when instead they needed to be proactive and contact their local county clerk to request a mail-in ballot for the general election.

In short, Lavender-Bowe said, the factors that may have affected the outcome of the 42nd House District race were myriad.

Rose sees the race as a simpler affair a clear battle between conservative Republicans and liberal Democrats.

Both Todd (Longanacre) and Barry (Bruce) are pro-Second Amendment and pro-life, he said. People around here care about those issues. Even registered Democrats have voted Republican in the past several elections; it didnt happen overnight.

In fact, Rose said, The Republican Party today is almost where the Democratic Party was in the 1960s and '70s.

Email: talvey@register-herald.com

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A tale of two elections | State & Region | register-herald.com - Beckley Register-Herald