Feinberg Forecast: Updated Oscars Projections as Thanksgiving Approaches – Hollywood Reporter

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter's awards columnist Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and awards strategists, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars ceremony itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

*BEST PICTURE*

FrontrunnersNomadland (Searchlight)The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) Mank (Netflix)Minari (A24)Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)News of the World (Universal)Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Netflix)One Night in Miami (Amazon)Soul (Pixar)The Father (Sony Classics)

Major Threats Promising Young Woman (Focus)Palm Springs (Hulu/Neon)The Invisible Man (Universal)Tenet (Warner Bros.)

Possibilities Sound of Metal (Amazon)The Midnight Sky (Netflix)On the Rocks (A24/Apple)The Prom (Netflix)

Long ShotsBorat Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon)The Personal History of David Copperfield (Searchlight)Ammonite (Neon)The Outpost (Chicken Soup For The Soul)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)Cherry (Apple TV+)Joe Bell (Solstice)Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)The Little Things (Warner Bros.)Malcolm & Marie (Netflix)Martin Eden (Kino Lorber)The Mauritanian (STX)Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus)Supernova (Bleecker Street)The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Paramount)Wild Mountain Thyme (Bleecker Street)

*BEST DIRECTOR*

FrontrunnersChloe Zhao (Nomadland)David Fincher (Mank)Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7) podcastSpike Lee (Da 5 Bloods) podcastLee Isaac Chung (Minari)

Major ThreatsPaul Greengrass (News of the World)George C. Wolfe (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)Regina King (One Night in Miami) podcastChristopher Nolan (Tenet)George Clooney (The Midnight Sky) podcast

PossibilitiesFlorian Zeller (The Father)Ryan Murphy (The Prom) podcastMax Barbakow (Palm Springs)Sofia Coppola (On the Rocks)

Long ShotsPete Docter & Kemp Powers (Soul)Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)Leigh Whannell (The Invisible Man)Rod Lurie (The Outpost)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)Lee Daniels (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)Kevin Macdonald (The Mauritanian)Reinaldo Marcus Green (Joe Bell)John Lee Hancock (The Little Things)Eliza Hittman (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)Shaka King (Judas and the Black Messiah)Sam Levinson (Malcolm & Marie)Pietro Marcello (Martin Eden)Anthony Russo & Joe Russo (Cherry)John Patrick Shanley (Wild Mountain Thyme)

*BEST ACTOR*

FrontrunnersChadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom) podcastDelroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods) podcastAnthony Hopkins (The Father)Gary Oldman (Mank)Steven Yeun (Minari) podcast

Major ThreatsRiz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) podcastTom Hanks (News of the World) podcast [one and two]Kingsley Ben-Adir (One Night in Miami)George Clooney (The Midnight Sky) podcast

Possibilities Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) podcastBen Affleck (The Way Back)Adarsh Gourav (The White Tiger)Winston Duke (Nine Days)

Long ShotsAndy Samberg (Palm Springs)James Corden (The Prom) podcastDev Patel (The Personal History of David Copperfield) podcastEli Goree (One Night in Miami)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)Clayne Crawford (The Killing of Two Lovers)Jamie Dornan (Wild Mountain Thyme)Colin Firth (Supernova)Peter Gerety (Working Man)Tom Holland (Cherry)Jude Law (The Nest)John Magaro (First Cow)Luca Marinelli (Martin Eden)Ntare Guma Mbaho Mwine (Farewell Amor)Jim Parsons (The Boys in the Band)Tahar Rahim (The Mauritanian)Trevante Rhodes (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)LaKeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)Mark Wahlberg (Joe Bell)Denzel Washington (The Little Things) podcastJohn David Washington (Malcolm & Marie)

*BEST ACTRESS*

FrontrunnersFrances McDormand (Nomadland)Viola Davis (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) podcastMeryl Streep (The Prom) podcast

Major ThreatsSophia Loren (The Life Ahead)Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit)Yeri Han (Minari)Kate Winslet (Ammonite) podcast [one and two]

PossibilitiesElisabeth Moss (The Invisible Man) podcastRachel Brosnahan (I'm Your Woman) podcastJulia Garner (The Assistant) podcastRashida Jones (On the Rocks) podcast

Long ShotsAmy Adams (Hillbilly Elegy) podcastRosamund Pike (Radioactive) podcastJessie Buckley (I'm Thinking of Ending Things)Cristin Milioti (Palm Springs)Charlize Theron (The Old Guard)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)Nicole Beharie (Miss Juneteenth)Haley Bennett (Swallow)Emily Blunt (Wild Mountain Thyme)Carrie Coon (The Nest)Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)Clare Dunne (Herself)Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)Sienna Miller (Wander Darkly)Julianne Moore (The Glorias)Eliza Scanlen (Babyteeth)Katherine Waterston (The World to Come)Evan Rachel Wood (Kajillionaire)Zendaya (Malcolm & Marie)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*

FrontrunnersBill Murray (On the Rocks)Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) podcast David Strathairn (Nomadland)Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7)Leslie Odom, Jr. (One Night in Miami) podcast

Major ThreatsYahya Abdul-Mateen II (The Trial of the Chicago 7)Billy Crystal (Standing Up, Falling Down)Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods) podcastFrank Langella (The Trial of the Chicago 7)Eddie Redmayne (The Trial of the Chicago 7) podcast

Possibilities Will Patton (Minari)Shia LaBeouf (Pieces of a Woman) podcastAldis Hodge (One Night in Miami)Jonathan Majors (Da 5 Bloods)Clarke Peters (Da 5 Bloods)

Long Shots Brian Dennehy (Driveways)J.K. Simmons (Palm Springs)Bo Burnham (Promising Young Woman) podcastLucas Hedges (French Exit) podcastCaleb Landry Jones (The Outpost)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)Jared Leto (The Little Things)Rami Malek (The Little Things) podcastReid Miller (Joe Bell)Jesse Plemons (Judas and the Black Messiah) podcastGary Sinise (Joe Bell)Stanley Tucci (Supernova)Christopher Walken (Wild Mountain Thyme)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*

FrontrunnersOlivia Colman (The Father) podcastAmanda Seyfried (Mank)Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari)Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) podcast

Major ThreatsSaoirse Ronan (Ammonite) podcastHelena Zengel (News of the World)Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman)

PossibilitiesOlivia Cooke (Sound of Metal)Marisa Tomei (The King of Staten Island)Marsha Stephanie Blake (I'm Your Woman)

Long ShotsSwankie (Nomadland)Linda May (Nomadland)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)Ciara Bravo (Cherry)Connie Britton (Joe Bell)Dominique Fishback (Judas and the Black Messiah)Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian)Vanessa Kirby (The World to Come)Natasha Lyonne (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)Da'Vine Joy Randolph (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)Alicia Vikander (The Glorias) podcastVanessa Williams (Bad Hair)

*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*

FrontrunnersNomadland (Chloe Zhao)One Night in Miami (Kemp Powers)The Father (Christopher Hampton & Florian Zeller)I'm Thinking of Ending Things (Charlie Kaufman) podcastNews of the World (Luke Davies & Paul Greengrass)

Major Threats Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (Ruben Santiago-Hudson)Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Peter Baynham, Sacha Baron Cohen, Jena Friedman, Anthony Hines, Lee Kern, Dan Mazer, Erica Rivinoja & Dan Swimer) podcast [Cohen] The Midnight Sky (Mark L. Smith)The Prom (Chad Beguelin & Bob Martin)

Possibilities The White Tiger (Ramin Bahrani) podcastThe Personal History of David Copperfield (Armando Iannucci)The Life Ahead (Edoardo Ponti)

Long Shots Emma (Eleanor Catton)The Outpost (Eric Johnson & Paul Tamasy)Shirley (Sarah Gibbons)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)Cherry (Jessica Goldberg & Angela Russo-Ostot)First Cow (Jonathan Raymond & Kelly Reichardt)The Glorias (Sarah Ruhl & Julie Taymor)Martin Eden (Mauricio Braucci)The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Suzan-Lori Parks)Wild Mountain Thyme (John Patrick Shanley)

*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*

FrontrunnersThe Trial of the Chicago 7 (Aaron Sorkin) podcastMank (Jack Fincher)Da 5 Bloods (Danny Bilson, Paul De Meo, Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee) podcast [Lee]Minari (Lee Isaac Chung) Soul (Pete Docter, Mike Jones & Kemp Powers)

Major ThreatsPromising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)Palm Springs (Andy Siara)The Forty-Year-Old Version (Radha Blank)

PossibilitiesOn the Rocks (Sofia Coppola)Tenet (Christopher Nolan)The King of Staten Island (Judd Apatow) podcast

Long ShotsI'm Your Woman (Julia Hart & Jordan Horowitz)Ammonite (Francis Lee)Sound of Metal (Derek Cianfrance, Abraham Marder & Darius Marder)

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)Bad Hair (Justin Simien)The Climb (Michael Angelo Covino & Kyle Marvin)Herself (Malcolm Campbell & Clare Dunne)Joe Bell (Larry McMurtry & Diana Ossana)Judas and the Black Messiah (Will Berson, Shaka King, Keith Lucas & Kenny Lucas)Kajillionaire (Miranda July)The Little Things (John Lee Hancock)Malcolm & Marie (Sam Levinson)Miss Juneteenth (Channing Godfrey Peoples)Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Eliza Hittman)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*

FrontrunnersCrip Camp (Netflix)Time (Amazon)Collective (Magnolia/Participant)Welcome to Chechnya (HBOThe Truffle Hunters (Sony Classics)

Rest of ShortlistDick Johnson Is Dead (Netflix)The Dissident (Briarcliff) podcast [Bryan Fogel]MLK/FBI (IFC)Boys State (Apple) Acasa, My Home (still seeking U.S. distribution)On the Record (HBO Max)The Way I See It (Focus)The Social Dilemma (Netflix)The Human Factor (Sony Classics)Totally Under Control (Neon) podcast [Alex Gibney]

PossibilitiesMy Octopus Teacher (Netflix)I Am Greta (Hulu)Kingdom of Silence (Showtime)The Fight (Magnolia/Topic Studios)Athlete A (Netflix)The Mole Agent (Gravitas Ventures)John Lewis: Good Trouble (Magnolia/Participant)Be Water (ESPN)All In: The Fight for Democracy (Amazon)Rebuilding Paradise (Nat Geo) podcast [Ron Howard]Miss Americana (Netflix)

Long ShotsFrancesco (still seeking U.S. distribution)Dear Mr. Brody (still seeking U.S. distribution)Oliver Sacks: His Own Life (Zeitgeist)Mucho Mucho Amor: The Legend of Walter Mercado (Netflix) podcast [Cristina Costantini]A Secret Love (Netflix)Circus of Books (Netflix)Red Penguins (Universal) podcast [Gabe Polsky]American Selfie (MTV)Once Were Brothers: Robbie Robertson and the Band (Magnolia)The Mindfulness Movement (Abramorama) podcast [Jewel]

Still to See or Embargoed (alphabetically)40 Years a Prisoner (HBO)76 Days (MTV)Apocalypse '45 (Discovery)Assassins (Greenwich)Beautiful Something Left Behind (MTV)The Bee Gees: How Can You Mend a Broken Heart (HBO)Belly of the Beast (PBS)Belushi (Showtime)City Hall (Zipporah)Coded Bias (PBS Independent Lens)Crock of Gold (Magnolia)Desert One (Greenwich)Disclosure (Netflix)The Earth Is Blue As An Orange (still seeking U.S. distribution)Father Soldier Son (Netflix)Feels Good Man (Wavelength Productions/PBS Independent Lens)Finding Yingying (MTV)The Forbidden Reel (still seeking U.S. distribution)Giving Voice (Netflix)The Go-Go's (Showtime)Gunda (Neon)I Walk on Water (Grasshopper)Kiss the Ground (self-distributed)Me and the Cult Leader (still seeking U.S. distribution)The Metamorphosis of Birds (still seeking U.S. distribution)Mr. SOUL! (self-distributed)My Psychedelic Love Story (Showtime)Nasrin (Virgil Films & Entertainment)Notturno (still seeking U.S. distribution)Olympia (still seeking U.S. distribution)Once Upon a Time in Venezuela (still seeking U.S. distribution)The Painter and the Thief (Neon)The Reason I Jump (Kino Lorber)Reunited (still seeking U.S. distribution)Rewind (Grizzly Creek)Rising Phoenix (Netflix)Softie (Icarus)Stars and Strife (self-distributed)The State of Texas vs. Melissa (Filmrise)Stray (Magnolia)A Thousand Cuts (PBS)'Til Kingdom Come (still seeking U.S. distribution)To See You Again (still seeking U.S. distribution)Transhood (HBO)Unapologetic (still seeking U.S. distribution)The Viewing Booth (Roco)Vivos (still seeking U.S. distribution)Wild Daze (Cinemidgm)Wintopia (still seeking U.S. distribution)Zappa (Magnolia)

*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*

FrontrunnersCollective (Romania)I'm No Longer Here (Mexico) Charlatan (Czech Republic)Another Round (Denmark)Funny Boy (Canada)

Others (alphabetical) And Tomorrow the Entire World (Germany)Apples (Greece)Asia (Israel)Atlantis (Ukraine)The Auschwitz Report (Slovakia)Beginning (Georgia)Bulado (Netherlands)Causa Justa (Panama)Charter (Sweden)Dear Comrades! (Russia)Emptiness (Ecuador)The Endless Trench (Spain)Exile (Kosovo)Extracurricular (Croatia)The Father (Bulgaria)Gaza Mon Amour (Palestine)Heliopolis (Algeria)Hope (Norway)Impetigore (Indonesia)La Llorona (Guatemala)Land of Ashes (Costa Rica)The Last Ones (Estonia)The Letter (Kenya)Lunana A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)The Man Standing Next (South Korea)Miracle in Cell No. 7 (Turkey)The Mole Agent (Chile)My Little Sister (Switzerland)Never Gonna Snow Again (Poland)Night of the Kings (Ivory Coast)Once Upon a Time in Venezuela (Venezuela)Open Door (Albania)Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)River Tales (Luxembourg)Roh (Malaysia)Song Without a Name (Peru)Stories from the Chestnut Woods (Slovenia)A Sun (Taiwan)Sun Children (Iran)This Is Not a Burial (Lesotho)Tove (Finland)True Mothers (Japan)Two of Us (France)What We Wanted (Austria)Working Girls (Belgium)

Prospective SubmissionsBad Tales (Italy)The Life Ahead (Italy)The Disciple (India)

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Feinberg Forecast: Updated Oscars Projections as Thanksgiving Approaches - Hollywood Reporter