Why this US election could be the most important of our times – The Canberra Times

explainers,

One of the most important elections in our times happens in just over 10 weeks. It is, of course, the election to be the President of the United States plus elections for the two houses of Congress. The winner of the presidential election will invariably be called the most powerful man on earth - and man it will be this time as every time before. It will take place on November 3 (by law, it's the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November, four years after the previous election). The presumptive Republican candidate is Donald Trump, the incumbent, and the presumptive Democratic Party candidate is Joe Biden. Presumptive because technically Mr Trump isn't the candidate until he is endorsed by this week's Republican Convention - but Messrs Trump and Biden will be the candidates. Plus more than 20 others from the Libertarian Party to the Legal Marijuana Now Party to the Transhumanist Party. And the rapper Kanye West who announced his campaign on Twitter on July 4. Many of these candidates are not running in all states. They're not going to be President of the United States of America. They might. If the race is very tight, votes taken from Biden or Trump may be crucial. In 2000, for example, the Democrat Al Gore lost Florida by 537 votes to George W Bush and that cost Gore the presidency. The perceived left-winger, Ralph Nader, received 97,421 votes there. Studies indicate that Nader's votes would have tended to have gone to Gore had Nader not been standing. No. The American system is based on an "Electoral College". Each state has a certain number of votes in the college and usually casts all those votes for one candidate, no matter what the split of the vote in that state. That can mean that the winner of the election is not the person for whom most Americans voted. In 2016, Donald Trump won 2.87 million fewer votes than Hillary Clinton but he won in the Electoral College by 304 electoral votes to 227. There will also be elections for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and for 33 seats (a third) in the Senate. This matters immensely because many public appointments have to be ratified by the Senate. In particular, judges on the Supreme Court have to be approved. At the moment, the ideological balance among the nine Justices tilts to the Right, with five conservative judges against four "liberals". One of the liberals - Ruth Bader Ginsburg - is 87 and has survived several bouts of cancer. You might think courts are devoid of politics but that's not true of the US Supreme Court. Issues like access to abortion, access to government health care, the ease or difficulty of voting, particularly by black people, may all come before the court and be decided in a partisan way. It's hard to think of any other American election which has been so polarised. The Democrats say this election is for "the soul of the nation". Candidate Joe Biden and his running mate, Kamala Harris, have both used the phrase. They and a few Republicans argue that Mr Trump has authoritarian tendencies which must be stopped. Mr Trump's supporters say it is still about "making America great again". Nobody doubts that the choice is stark. Issues such as access to health care, attitudes to Russia, attitudes to NATO, attitudes to alliances, including that with Australia will all turn on the outcome. There is no doubt that Mr Trump's record will figure, particularly his handling of the epidemic. While the stock market isn't doing that badly, unemployment is around 10 per cent of the workforce. Age may become an issue. Joe Biden turns 78 in November and Donald Trump is 74. Already Republicans are implying that Mr Biden is senile or going that way. Democrats mocked Mr Trump's uneasiness on his feet when he walked down a slope. A poll by Pew Research found that people likely to vote Democrat were more likely to mail in their votes. "Most registered voters who support Trump or lean toward supporting him would rather vote in person in the presidential election (80 per cent), either on Election Day (60 per cent) or earlier (20 per cent); only 17 per cent prefer to vote by mail. "By contrast, a majority of voters who support or lean toward supporting Biden say their preference is to vote by mail in the presidential election (58 per cent)." The USPS has told the state of Pennsylvania that some mail-in ballots might not be delivered to voters on time because "the state's deadlines are too tight." READ MORE: So funding for the USPS is now an issue. Democrats accuse President Trump of blocking money which would enable the service to make sure the votes arrive in time. Left-wing Senator Bernie Sanders said: "What you are witnessing is a President of the United States who is doing everything he can to suppress the vote, make it harder for people to engage in mail-in balloting at a time when people will be putting their lives on the line by having to go out to a polling station and vote." If we knew that ... The atmosphere changes completely when an election gets into full swing. Small incidents get magnified. Nate Silver whose FiveThirtyEight polling organisation is widely respected said: "Joe Biden still has a comfortable lead over President Trump in our national polling average and is favoured to win the election in our forecast. "But remember, Trump still has a meaningful chance of winning - even though the polls are stable now, that doesn't mean they will stay that way."

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EXPLAINER

August 24 2020 - 4:00AM

One of the most important elections in our times happens in just over 10 weeks.

It is, of course, the election to be the President of the United States plus elections for the two houses of Congress.

The winner of the presidential election will invariably be called the most powerful man on earth - and man it will be this time as every time before.

It will take place on November 3 (by law, it's the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November, four years after the previous election).

The presumptive Republican candidate is Donald Trump, the incumbent, and the presumptive Democratic Party candidate is Joe Biden.

Presumptive because technically Mr Trump isn't the candidate until he is endorsed by this week's Republican Convention - but Messrs Trump and Biden will be the candidates.

Plus more than 20 others from the Libertarian Party to the Legal Marijuana Now Party to the Transhumanist Party.

And the rapper Kanye West who announced his campaign on Twitter on July 4.

Many of these candidates are not running in all states. They're not going to be President of the United States of America.

They might. If the race is very tight, votes taken from Biden or Trump may be crucial.

In 2000, for example, the Democrat Al Gore lost Florida by 537 votes to George W Bush and that cost Gore the presidency.

The perceived left-winger, Ralph Nader, received 97,421 votes there. Studies indicate that Nader's votes would have tended to have gone to Gore had Nader not been standing.

So whoever gets the most votes becomes President

No. The American system is based on an "Electoral College". Each state has a certain number of votes in the college and usually casts all those votes for one candidate, no matter what the split of the vote in that state.

That can mean that the winner of the election is not the person for whom most Americans voted.

In 2016, Donald Trump won 2.87 million fewer votes than Hillary Clinton but he won in the Electoral College by 304 electoral votes to 227.

Anything else happening on November 3?

There will also be elections for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and for 33 seats (a third) in the Senate.

This matters immensely because many public appointments have to be ratified by the Senate.

In particular, judges on the Supreme Court have to be approved. At the moment, the ideological balance among the nine Justices tilts to the Right, with five conservative judges against four "liberals".

One of the liberals - Ruth Bader Ginsburg - is 87 and has survived several bouts of cancer.

You might think courts are devoid of politics but that's not true of the US Supreme Court.

Issues like access to abortion, access to government health care, the ease or difficulty of voting, particularly by black people, may all come before the court and be decided in a partisan way.

Why is this election special?

It's hard to think of any other American election which has been so polarised.

The Democrats say this election is for "the soul of the nation". Candidate Joe Biden and his running mate, Kamala Harris, have both used the phrase.

They and a few Republicans argue that Mr Trump has authoritarian tendencies which must be stopped.

Mr Trump's supporters say it is still about "making America great again".

Nobody doubts that the choice is stark.

Issues such as access to health care, attitudes to Russia, attitudes to NATO, attitudes to alliances, including that with Australia will all turn on the outcome.

What may turn the election?

There is no doubt that Mr Trump's record will figure, particularly his handling of the epidemic.

While the stock market isn't doing that badly, unemployment is around 10 per cent of the workforce.

Age may become an issue. Joe Biden turns 78 in November and Donald Trump is 74. Already Republicans are implying that Mr Biden is senile or going that way. Democrats mocked Mr Trump's uneasiness on his feet when he walked down a slope.

Where does the US Postal Service fit in?

A poll by Pew Research found that people likely to vote Democrat were more likely to mail in their votes.

"Most registered voters who support Trump or lean toward supporting him would rather vote in person in the presidential election (80 per cent), either on Election Day (60 per cent) or earlier (20 per cent); only 17 per cent prefer to vote by mail.

"By contrast, a majority of voters who support or lean toward supporting Biden say their preference is to vote by mail in the presidential election (58 per cent)."

The USPS has told the state of Pennsylvania that some mail-in ballots might not be delivered to voters on time because "the state's deadlines are too tight."

So funding for the USPS is now an issue. Democrats accuse President Trump of blocking money which would enable the service to make sure the votes arrive in time.

Left-wing Senator Bernie Sanders said: "What you are witnessing is a President of the United States who is doing everything he can to suppress the vote, make it harder for people to engage in mail-in balloting at a time when people will be putting their lives on the line by having to go out to a polling station and vote."

The atmosphere changes completely when an election gets into full swing. Small incidents get magnified.

Nate Silver whose FiveThirtyEight polling organisation is widely respected said: "Joe Biden still has a comfortable lead over President Trump in our national polling average and is favoured to win the election in our forecast.

"But remember, Trump still has a meaningful chance of winning - even though the polls are stable now, that doesn't mean they will stay that way."

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Why this US election could be the most important of our times - The Canberra Times