How Much Is SpaceX Worth and How Does It Make Money? – Barron’s

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With astronauts Bob and Doug floating in orbit, Morgan Stanleys Adam Jonas, along with other research staff at the Wall Street broker, tried to answer the question: What is SpaceXs valuation?

SpaceX is, of course, the private company that launched NASA astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurleyaffectionately referred to as Bob and Doug by NASA Mission Controlinto space. The pair were the first NASA astronauts to launch from U.S. soil since 2011 and the first to be carried on a commercial built spacecraft sitting atop a commercially built rocket.

Its an incredible feat for the company founded by Tesla (ticker: CEO) founder Elon Musk in 2002. Whats more amazing is the rocket launched was captured for reuse and the spacecraft will be reused as well.

Bob and Doug are slated to come back to Earth on Aug. 2, 2020.

SpaceXs unique technology makes the company difficult to value. And because SpaceX isnt publicly traded, analysts dont have all the data they normally would to build models and predict a financial future.

Both problems are reflected in Morgan Stanleys valuation of SpaceX. We update our hypothetical [discounted cash flow] valuation range for SpaceX, valuing the company between [roughly] $200 million and $175 billion, wrote the team of analysts in a Monday research report.

(Discounted cash flow is a valuation technique that estimates all the cash a company can generate in the future and determines what that cash is worth today.)

Thats a wide range of outcomes. Lets look at Morgan Stanleys base case, which values the company at $50 billion, making it one of the top 10 publicly traded aerospace and defense franchises.

Impressive, but its a stealth $50 billion. Many public equity investors arent sure what SpaceX does to generate value beyond its contracts with the government for space launch. Those alone cant account for $50 billion.

Its space launch business alone wouldnt, either. We view SpaceX as four companies, writes Morgan Stanley. First, SpaceX launches things into space. Second, SpaceX creates Starlink satellites. The company, eventually, plans to offer space-based high speed internet connectivity for a fee using those satellites. SpaceXs third business is travel: ultra fast, rocket-based travel from any point on earth to another. Its last business is deep space exploration.

The majority of the companys value in Morgan Stanleys base case comes from SpaceXs Starlink satellites. That business, according to Morgan Stanley, is worth about $42 billion. Its launch business is a $1 billion business and its travel business is worth about $9 billion, according to their research. Deep space exploration, for now, is valued at zero. The difference between $50 billion and those figures is cash on hand, about $3.4 billion, and the cost required to develop a hypersonic flying machine.

Starlink will cost hundreds of billions of dollars to develop but, based on Morgans math, the business model will work with a subscription fee as low as $50 a monthcomparable with land-based internet providers. Morgan estimates up to $24 billion in Starlink annual free cash flow by 2040.

While investors cant own SpaceX stock, they can buy a basket of stocks to play similar trends.

Virgin Galactic (ticker: SPCE) is working on hypersonic travel and space tourism. Its valued at $4.5 billion. Morgan Stanleys Jonas covers Galactic stock, rating shares the equivalent of Buy. He has a $24 price target for shares, close to where the stock is trading at currently.

To own a space launch company, look at Aerojet Rocketdyne (AJRD). Aerojet supplies rocket components to defense and government entities. Its enterprise value is $2.7 billion.

Starlink is difficult to replicate but there are satellite communications providers such as Maxar Technologies (MAXR) and Iridium Communications (IRDM). Those companies arent worth what Morgan Stanley suggests Starlink is worth and they dont do exactly the same thing.

Finally, to invest in deep space, consider defense stalwart Lockheed Martin (LMT), the company that built the Hubble Space Telescope.

The five stocks in Barrons SpaceX basket are up about 27%, collectively, year to date, better than comparable returns of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500.

Space, it appears, is hot again. SpaceX hopes it stays that way.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com

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How Much Is SpaceX Worth and How Does It Make Money? - Barron's