Eleven quarterbacks were selected in the 2019 NFL draft. Eight of them started two or more games as rookies. All told, rookie quarterbacks accounted for a total of 57 starts, with two first-rounders (Kyler Murray and Daniel Jones) and one sixth-rounder (Gardner Minshew) each starting 12 or more contests.
Its tough to forecast whether that level of rookie-QB contribution will happen this coming season, but theres at least a clear path toward winning a starting job for a number of the 13 quarterbacks picked in the 2020 NFL draft.
Granted, four of those 13 QBs picked in April were seventh-rounders. But over the past four NFL seasons, at least one first-year quarterback drafted in Round 4 or later (or undrafted) has started one or more games.
Rookie passers play, now more than ever. We thought wed take a look at when some of this years draft picks and try to determine when their first start might come.
Round 1, 1st overall pick
Even before the Bengals released Andy Dalton, it felt as if Burrow was destined to take ownership of the starting QB job sooner rather than later. Even with the presence of 2019 fourth-rounder Ryan Finley (who started three games last season) on the roster, and even in this most unusual of offseasons, its a pretty fair bet that Burrow will be out there to start the year.
Dalton had been the first Bengals rookie quarterback to start in the opening game, back in 2011. Carson Palmer, picked No. 1 overall back in 2003, didnt even take a single snap as a rookie behind Jon Kitna.
Projected first start: Week 1 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Round 1, 5th overall pick
The Dolphins were able to land Tagovailoa without moving up, which certainly was a terrific result. But there is little belief that the Dolphins are going to rush him into the lineup early on.
Even in a normal, uninterrupted offseason, the Dolphins theoretically could have taken their time with Tagovailoa, knowing that they have Ryan Fitzpatrick who had a 15-6 TD-INT ratio, ran for three scores and averaged nearly 300 pass yards a game over the final nine contests ready to go. Josh Rosen also remains on the roster. Both Fitzpatrick and Rosen believe theyll have a crack at earning the Week 1 starting job.
The Dolphins team doctors signed off on the team drafting Tagovailoa, and he has maintained since April that he could play a game now if needed. But those doctors will have their own views on Tagovailoas readiness once team facilities are opened and they can reexamine him.
Nothing is going to happen all at once, Dolphins head coach Brian Flores told NBCs Mike Tirico in April. I dont think you just jump in there and get ready to go.
This suggests a patient approach, which certainly is smart. We believe Tagovailoa will start in 2020. But its not happening in the opener.
Projected first start: You could make a case for Week 7 being a good spot to start the clock on Tagovailoa. The Dolphins have back-to-back home games that week and in Week 8, and it would allow him to get three starts in prior to Miamis Week 11 bye.
If the Dolphins wanted to be more passive or if, say, Fitzpatrick plays well and has them in contention in a reshuffled AFC East they could wait. Rolling out Tagovailoa in Week 12 against the New York Jets. That would give him a six-game trial, with one game each versus the other three division opponents down the stretch.
We think his first start could come sometime in that Week 7-12 range.
Round 1, 6th overall pick
The Chargers, like the Dolphins, appear to be a team willing to let its veteran QB take the job out of the chute and play it by ear thereafter. Tyrod Taylor backed up Philip Rivers last season for the Chargers, and they parted with Rivers knowing they could start Taylor and be fine with it. That sentiment appears bolstered by the fact that the Chargers never really seemed to show much interest in free agent Cam Newton.
But they did take Herbert sixth overall, and its fair to bet that hell be starting games at some point this season. After all, the BetMGM odds on Herbert winning the Chargers Week 1 job (+275) are stronger than that of Tagovailoa doing the same in Miami (+350).
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One reason is that Herbert has no current injury concern of note. Even in a shortened or altered camp or preseason, he theoretically is a quick enough study to beat out Taylor head to head given that Herbert comes in with a wealth ofcollege experience (42 career starts).
But right now, were betting on Taylor facing off against Burrow Week 1 in Cincinnati and Herbert getting his shot down the line.
Projected first start: Week 8 feels like a decent spot. The Chargers return home from a road game at Miami the week before and have two home games back to back vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars and Las Vegas Raiders prior to the Week 10 bye. Getting Herbert some time in those two games would allow the team to recalibrate a bit during the bye prior to a tough finishing slate thereafter.
The Chargers close the season with four of their final seven on the road, but giving Herbert some time to acclimate prior to that might make that stretch a little easier to handle.
Round 1, 26th overall pick
If all goes well, Aaron Rodgers will start 16 games this season and Love will watch and learn. But what if 2017 plays out all over again? Rodgers got hurt in the sixth game of the season, and the Packers were forced to turn to Brett Hundley for nine starts that year.
Would Matt LaFleur go to Love if Rodgers got hurt at a similar point of the season? The only other quarterback on the roster with NFL experience is Tim Boyle, who has all of four pass attempts in the league. And thats assuming the Packers opt to keep three quarterbacks on the roster.
Green Bay drafting Jordan Love has some folks wondering when he might take over. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
Still, Rodgers has played 16 regular-season games four of the past five seasons, and injuries are impossible to predict, so well assume that Love is shelved this year with an eye on the future. If the Packers are in contention with something to play for late in the season and Rodgers remains healthy, its hard to imagine a scenario where Love sees the field outside of in late relief.
Projected first start: Sometime in 2021
Round 2, 53rd overall pick
The Eagles drafting Hurts sent shockwaves through the virtual draft, and it led to many questions about what the teams QB plans were exactly. After all, the Eagles had signed Carson Wentz to a long-term contract extension last year, brought back Nate Sudfeld and appeared to have more pressing issues.
But Hurts could end up being a fine insurance policy and provide value in other ways over the next few seasons. It will be fascinating to see how they employ him, either as a true backup QB or whether they implement a package of plays designed to take advantage of Hurts unique skills.
Projected first start: Theres a bit of a trick-question element to this one. What happens if the Eagles open in a two-QB look to throw off an opponent? It wouldnt be shocking. (Of course, if Hurts was lined up anywhere but behind the center, hed be credited with a start at another position, for you specifists out there.)
Even so, it would not be stunning to see Wentz get hurt, thus forcing Hurts into the lineup earlier than anyone hopes. Well just throw a dart here: How about Hurts getting his first start as an injury replacement Week 11 at Cleveland? That could pit the two former Oklahoma quarterbacks who both transferred into Norman and brought home a pair of Heisman Trophies.
Round 4, 122nd overall pick
The Colts signed Rivers to be their starter this season, and they still have Jacoby Brissett (and Chad Kelly!) on the roster. So Eason isnt at all in need of a crash course to get ready; the team can take its time grooming him if it wants.
But then again, GM Chris Ballard also warned the media to slow your roll when it comes to projecting Eason as the quote-unquote quarterback of the future. Drafting a player in Round 4 means there were questions about him, so by no means are the Colts wedded to him nor precluded from picking another QB in 2021 if they see one they like.
That said, the Colts might want to give Eason a shot in 2020 if they can, even if its just a brief one, to see what exactly they have in the talented but flawed passer.
Projected first start: Were fairly bullish on the Colts chances this season, so well say that they win a big game at Pittsburgh in Week 16 and enter their season finale at home against Jacksonville with their playoff fate sealed. (Yes, this is all highly hypothetical.)
And yes, the Jaguars would appear to be a good team to start a rookie QB against.
Round 4, 125th overall
Sam Darnold is the starter, and Morgan must pass (noted Adam Gase favorite) David Fales and Mike White on the depth chart to get on the field. Its not likely, although Darnold has had injuries and some weird ones the past few seasons. Last year alone, he suffered from mononucleosis and strep throat (concurrently), lost a toenail at New England and sprained his thumb. The Jets also have sniffed around some veteran QBs this offseason, so that also must be monitored. Their eventual backup might not even be on the roster right now.
Projected first start: Wouldnt it be completely Jetsian for Darnold to get hurt on a Monday night at Foxboro in Week 9 and have to turn around in a short week and give the ball to a rookie? So well say that, barring the Jets adding a veteran at the position, Morgan will be called on for the injury-replacement start Week 10 in Miami, where he played his college ball.
Round 6, 189th overall pick
We needed a late-round flier here, and Luton is our guy. Maybe Minshew Mania wears off, Mike Glennon is injured in a bizarre gardening accident and the Jaguars are fully into their tank-for-Trevor mode. It wouldnt shock a single person, of course, if thats how it goes.
Luton actually quietly played some solid ball last season for Oregon State, is experienced enough and has solid toughness and smarts for the position. Really, hes the perfect QB to throw out there to not embarrass your team, while doing so under the auspice of evaluating our young QB at the end of a season.
Projected first start: Were giving Luton the Week 17 start, which would mean in our finely tuned, scientific approach that hed be facing fellow rookie Eason in their respective debuts. Two Pac-12 guys facing off in the middle of Indiana. How about that?
When they faced off last season, it was a terrible game. Eason completed 16-of-32 passes for 175 yards, no TDs and two picks. And his team won! Luton had maybe his worst game of last season, completing 19-of-28 passes but for a mere 88 yards and with one interception of his own.
Luton completed one pass longer than 10 yards that game. His team lost 19-7. This matchup might carry similar excitement, even if the Jaguars 2021 draft fate could be on the line.
Other 2020 QB draft picks not projected to start a game as rookies: Jake Fromm, Buffalo Bills; Cole McDonald, Tennessee Titans; Ben DiNucci, Dallas Cowboys; Tommy Stevens, New Orleans Saints; Nate Stanley, Minnesota Vikings.
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