12 States Where Democrats Could Flip the Senate – The Nation

Mark Kelly speaks at New York's City Hall with his wife, former congresswoman Gabby Giffords, in 2016. Kelly is a strong Democratic candidate for an Arizona Senate seat this year. (Photo by Spencer Platt / Getty Images)

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The impeachment trial in the US Senate is clearly a constitutional and moral moment of truth. It is also an excellent opportunity to advance the nitty-gritty work that will defeat vulnerable incumbent Republican senators and allow Democrats to recapture control of that critical chamber when voters head to the polls this November. It is easy for progressives to get excited about compelling candidatespeople with impressive life stories and hard-hitting adsand then shower resources on those candidates. And, yes, charisma and well-crafted ads are nice. But as Virginia Democrats success last fall demonstrates, robust, statewide voter mobilization operations are better.Ad Policy

Republicans currently hold 53 of the Senates 100 seats; Democrats will need a minimum net gain of three seats and a new, Democratic vice president to flip partisan control of the body. Of the 23 Republican-controlled Senate seats up for election this year, there are currently 13 seats in 12 states that offer plausible prospects for Democrats to defeat their Republican opponent.

Factoring in four key criteriapast electoral results, demographic developments, existing civic engagement infrastructure, and incumbent favorability ratingsI have given all 12 states with a Republican incumbent (and one state, Alabama, with a vulnerable Democrat) a score that illustrates their respective winnability.

(Read a complete description of the methodology and underlying data incorporated in the ratings here.)

The states where Democrats are most likely to flip a Senate seat are those where theyve fared well in recent statewide elections, and where there is a large pool of potential Democratic voters who could be brought into the electorate to improve the overall odds of victory.

Kyrsten Sinema won the Arizona US Senate race in 2018the first Democrat to win an open seat in that state since 1976. Conventional wisdom attributes Sinemas success to popularity with moderate voters, generally code for white swing voters; but she actually lost the white vote to her opponent. While her white vote share was admittedly higher than many Democrats receive, it was her 70 percent of the Latino vote that propelled her to victory, by just 56,000 votes. And there could be a whole lot more where that came from: More than 600,000 eligible Latinos did not vote in 2018.

Burgeoning Latino civic engagement infrastructure is the progressive secret weapon in Arizona. Ever since the states government passed the 2010 anti-immigrant legislation often referred to as the show me your papers law, a strong, sustained and effective cohort of organizations and leaders have worked together to build political power and darken the complexion of the Arizona electorate. Republican Martha McSally is the incumbent up for reelection this fall; progressive solidarity, combined with the strong fundraising of likely Democratic nominee Mark Kellyformer astronaut, current gun control activist, and husband of former representative Gabby Giffordsmakes this one of the most winnable Senate seats in the country.Current Issue

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After two decades of sustained investment in a strong progressive infrastructure of organizations and leaders in Coloradoa period during which the states population has also become increasingly diverseDemocrats have won all four statewide elections since 2016. Cory Gardner, the current incumbent Republican senator, won this seat in 2014 by the narrow margin of 40,000 votes. (He was helped along by the fact that 300,000 fewer Democratic voters turned out than had voted in 2008s presidential election.) Two Democrats, former governor John Hickenlooper and former speaker of the state House Andrew Romanoff, will face off in Colorados June primary; whoever prevails should be the favorite to win the seat in a high-turnout presidential election year.

The silver lining of Georgias bitterly disappointing gubernatorial election in 2018? Stacey Abramss historic bid helped to build an electoral infrastructure that resulted in record Democratic voter turnout. That operation gives a massive head start to Democrats looking to win the state in 2020, at both the Senate and presidential levels. (A few months ago, Abrams even created a document in which she shares her prescription for victory.) Georgia has two Senate seats on the ballot in November. The field of potential Senate candidates is still unsettled: It includes Jon Ossoff, who previously ran for US Congress; Sarah Riggs Amico, a former candidate for Georgia lieutenant governor; and Teresa Tomlinson, who was the first female mayor of Columbus, Georgia. All are competing for the seat currently held by David Perdue. (Theres a special election planned for the second seat as well, but theres been little clarity yet about that race.) Regardless of who the ultimate candidates are, Georgia should be all-hands-on-deck for progressives nationallyespecially because the state is also within reach of any Democratic presidential nominee, even more so if Abrams were on the ticket to be vice president. If the Democrats can mobilize the Abrams coalition, it will lift all boats.

Texas, once seen as a solidly red state, now has the greatest progressive electoral potential of any state in the country. Its enormous number of eligible, non-voting people of color absolutely dwarfs the shrinking margin of difference in statewide elections. In 2018, Beto ORourke lost his US Senate bid by just 215,000 votes, despite the fact that 5.5 million people of color didnt cast ballots.

Similar to what weve seen in Virginia, groups such as the Texas Organizing Project have helped make the difference in mayoral elections in Houston and San Antonio in recent years, with a steady course of methodical civic engagement work. Texass very competitive Democratic primary is fast approaching, on March 3, or Super Tuesday; that contest is among the first of the battleground Senate races. While the Democratic senatorial Campaign Committee has sought to tip the scales in favor of M.J. Hegarwhose military background, its assumed, will help attract white votersthere are multiple candidates of color in the race. The person with the clearest and most logical path to defeating Republican John Cornyn is Cristina Tzintzn Ramirez. She comes from an organizing background, has deep ties to Latino communities across the state, and is the kind of inspiring and progressive candidate who can capture the imagination of the largeand still essentially untappedelectorate that holds the key to flipping Texas. (Full disclosure: I have contributed to Tzintzn Ramirezs campaign, and she is a guest on the latest episode of my podcast, Democracy in Color.)Related Article

There are actually just a handful of states where large numbers of voters regularly switch their partisan preferences. Such states are harder and more expensive to win; at worst, they can be bottomless money pits, where political ads may or may not be wasted. (Bringing to mind the old adage: Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted; the trouble is I dont know which half.) But with a president as divisive, unqualified, and destructive as the one we have now, the prospect of Democrats prevailing in swing states could be higher than usual.

Many people forget that Barack Obama managed to win North Carolina in 2008, if only by a tiny margin. And although Trump won the state in 2016, Democrat Roy Cooper prevailed in the gubernatorial contest that year. In a state with a meaningful number of college-educated whites, particularly around the so-called Research Triangle of Chapel Hill, Durham, and Raleigh, likely Democratic nominee Cal Cunningham may have appeal, but hell need to work hard to inspire the African Americans who make up 22 percent of the states population. Much of the burden of increasing African American voter turnouta group that overwhelmingly votes Democraticwill fall to progressive groups and the Democratic presidential ticket (further accentuating the importance of a ticket that can inspire voters of color).

Maine Republican Susan Collins and her pseudo-moderate rhetoric have enraged progressives for yearsmost notably during the fight over Brett Kavanaughs Supreme Court confirmation, where she provided critical cover for the Republicans patriarchal power play. She could be vulnerable this year. Maine is more Democratic than many people realize; the state voted Democratic in the last seven presidential elections. Collins now faces a formidable Democratic opponent in Sara Gideon, the well-funded speaker of the Maine House of Representatives and daughter of an Indian immigrant. Furthermore, Collinss favorability numbers are underwater, as 10 percent more Maine residents view her unfavorably than favorably.

Iowa, of course, is among the swingiest swing states in the country, having flipped from backing Obama by substantial margins in 2008 to a Trump blowout in 2016. (Pat Rynard, who runs the political news site Iowa Starting Line discussed this phenomenon on my podcast in October, observing that candidates who have run on a change-type message have done well in the state.) In that lightand taking note of incumbent Republican Joni Ernsts unfavorable polling numbersit is realistic to try to flip this seat. A three-way Democratic primary in June will determine the partys nominee. Many party leaders have high hopes for Theresa Greenfield, who is backed by Emilys List and other progressive groups.

There is another cohort of states where seats are up for election this yearones that would normally be out of reach, just by virtue of their paucity of Democratic voters. But in a high-turnout year when many white voters are alarmed by the Republican standard-bearer, things could conceivably break just right for Democrats. Think of the perfect storm that swept through Alabama in 2017, when Republicans nominated accused child-molester Roy Moore for the Senate, and Democrat Doug Jones rode a robust black voter turnout operation to victory.

Jones is up for reelection this year, and he faces daunting odds in a state that Trump won by nearly 28 points. (Joness own 2017 win came in a contest with much lower voter turnout.) But in addition to the possibility of Joness being reelected, the other states where an Alabama Miracle could conceivably occur are Mississippi, South Carolina, and Kentucky. Mississippi and South Carolina are similar to Alabama, in that they have large African American populations; Kentucky is worth considering, too, since Democrat Andy Beshear squeaked to victory in the governor race last year, and incumbent Mitch McConnells steadfast support for Trumps divisive agenda has made him one of the least popular senators in the country.

Montana is a true iconoclast, where there is frequent ticket splitting of perplexing proportions. In 2016, Trump won Montana by 20 points, even while Democrat Steve Bullock prevailed in the gubernatorial contest. The popular Bullockwho briefly entered the Democratic presidential primary last year, before pulling out in Decemberhas thus far resisted entreaties to run for Senate. But should he do so, he would be a strong favorite to flip that seat.

The Senate impeachment trial will force all incumbent senators to openly condemn or condone Trumps behavior. This could draw a clear connection between the actions of this president and the responsibility of his congressional enablers. If Democrats can make sure that voters in the most winnable states understand the role that their incumbent GOP senators have played in this havoc, it could accelerate their efforts to take back control of the Senate and this country.

Taking control of the Senate will require success on two fronts: increasing turnout of voters of color, and cementing support among those suburban white voters who gave Trump a chance in 2016, but shifted their support to Democrats in the 2018 midterms. Most people of color understand clearly the danger and destruction presented by this administration, but the Senate trial offers an excellent opportunity to affirm the increasing alarm felt by those suburban white voters too. Once the evidence is presented, every senator will have to go on the record about whether they support Trumps unconstitutional corruption. Come November, there are at least 12 incumbent Republicans who can, and should, pay the political price for their complicity in endangering and undermining our democracy.

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12 States Where Democrats Could Flip the Senate - The Nation