Reply to @MaxBnb:Hi Max. You are correct. A Milankovitch warming cycle began 18000 years ago. At that point, there was a mile of ice over New York. This warming progressed and peaked 10000 years ago. At that point the ice had melted back to roughly where it is today.
I have talked about Milankovitch cycles many times on this blog.
Of course every warming cycle ends and a new cooling cycle begins.
We have been in a cooling cycle for about 6000 years now. This cycle should continue for another 80000 years (give or take 10000).
You can see it in the long term average temperature records. The worlds average temperature was on a long slow decline for 6000 years. You can see that in the chart that Scoot provided earlier.
If it wasn't for man, the temperature would continue to decline for another 80000 years due to this natural cycle. The glaciers would grow, and 80000 years from now there would be another mile of ice over New York.
But that all changed when man began deforestation, agriculture, and producing greenhouse gasses like CO2 and CH4.
As a result, in 200 years we have completely reversed the previous 6000 years of cooling.
Which would be okay if could figure out how to stop it before it becomes a serious problem.
You are partly right when you say some of the warming was good. If it wasn't for mans influence, , the planet would be a bit cooler now, heading towards much cooler in the future.
The reason why man made global warming is becoming bad, is because the changes are so rapid. I know that 200 years sounds like a long time, but nature is used to those changes taking place over 6000 years.
Plus, the changes are accelerating. Nature can respond to long slow changes, but struggles to adapt to fast changes. That is why we are losing so many species to extinction. Every single day the planet loses 150 species of plant, bird, animal, insect, fish, amphibians etc to extinction.
You are also correct when you say it has been much warmer (and much cooler) in the past. The reason you know this is because of science. Scientists can explain the entire 4.5 billion year history of climate on earth. They can tell you when it was warm, when it was cool, and why. They can identify every single time ice was over New York. They can tell you when there was no ice at all and why. When there was no ice, the oceans we're 600 feet higher, by the way.
So you rely on science to tell you about past climate, yet you reject science when it tells you about climate today and where it is going.
I appreciate that you decided to talk about the science.
Please continue this discussion. Tell me where I am wrong. Tell me where I am right. But please show me some science to back up your claims.
Thanks.
Realist
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