Republicans grew our economy – and in the process, turned Arizona purple – AZCentral

Nathan Sproul, opinion contributor Published 6:00 a.m. MT Jan. 26, 2020 | Updated 3:09 p.m. MT Jan. 26, 2020

Opinion: Arizona is becoming increasingly Democratic because it successfully wooed companies - and their workers - from more liberal states.

Downtown Gilbert isn't the sleepy place it used to be. Most cities have transformed as more people have moved to Arizona.(Photo: Michael Schennum/The Republic)

During the 2000 election, when I was the executive director of the Arizona Republican Party, the Bush presidential campaign launched a massive effort to woo the Hispanic vote throughout the Southwest.

They were convinced that the Southwest could be a problem for Bush unless he got Hispanic voters. He garnered 35% of the national Hispanic vote in 2000 and in 2004,garnered 44%. Their approach worked.

Arizona has been a reliablyRepublican state for decades. The Legislature movedfrom Democratic to Republican controlin 1966 and has flipped back only a handful of times since. A handful of Democrats have won statewide office over the past 50 years, but theyve been the exception, not the rule.

Most pundits have assumed that if Arizona were to revert to its Democratic roots of the '40s and '50s, it would be from the growing Hispanic vote tipping the scale. Within this paradigm of thought, its clear to see why Bush and many other Republican campaigns have focused their efforts on promoting policies that were viewed favorably by Hispanic voters.

Fast forward to 2018. Many political pundits were surprised to see how well Democrat candidates faired up and down the ballot in Arizona. Democrats won a U.S. Senate seat andstatewide offices like secretary of state. Theymaintained a 5-4 congressional majority and nearly won the majority of seats in both chambers of the Legislature.

In reality, this shouldnt have been a surprise. The signs have been coming into focus a few years now.

Even though 2018 was the midterm election, which historically goes against the party in the White House, I dont think the Republican president was the only reason for the 2018 Democratic victories.

It wasnt just a political correction or swing.I think its the likely trend.

In fact, we have been seeing for a couple of years now the underlying currents of Arizona going purple, and our swing-state statuswas finally realized in 2018.

The most important early warning sign for Republicans was likely the vote for the Legislature in 2016.

Take Senate District 18, for example. In 2012, Republican John McComish won by almost 6,000 votes. This is a district that, with the exception of Harry Mitchell (Tempe's iconic mayor), elected Republicans and not by a small amount.

After voting for McComish by historically normal numbers, it then flipped in 2016 and elected a Democrat by a little more than3,000 votes. By 2018, the same Democrat, Sean Bowie, gained much more momentum and won by almost 14,000 votes.

Voting precincts throughout Maricopa County that were reliablyRepublican precincts began to buckle in 2016 and then completely collapse in 2018. Its undeniable that precincts throughout Ahwatukee, Chandler, Peoria, north Phoenix and Scottsdale started seeing a Democrat edge to them that never existed before.

The important aspect of this data is that the increase in votes for Democrats didnt just happen in historically Hispanic areas. It happened in white, Republican suburbs.

That is significant.

Ten years ago, I lived in Gilbert. To say that it was a sleepy suburb of suburbs is an understatement. Three weeks ago, I went back for a Sunday lunch with my family. Downtown Gilbert is booming. It is no longer a town of families with lots of kids. It has become a town of 30-something young adults.

Gilbert isnt the exception to the new migratory patterns for Arizona. Im pretty sure this is the new normal. From Peoria to Surprise to Scottsdale to Chandler to Casa Grande to Marana and even Prescott, white urban professionals are moving here from places like California by the tens of thousands.

Why are they moving here? Arizona has successfully matured and diversified its economy.

In Gov. DougDuceys newest video, The Arizona Way, as accompanied online with his State of the State address last week, he showcased the business-friendly environment that cuts red tape, slashes regulation and invites innovation.

The result? A state of millions of citizens with a daily influx of 300 people. Thank you, Governor Ducey. Youredoing yourjob. But it cant help but change our states demographics.

When I was a kid growing up in the '70s and well into the 2000s, Arizona relied on tourism, retirement and construction. Since then, weve courted and successfully brought major corporations to Arizona. With them comes their employees.

News flash they arent all Republicans.

Over the past decade, weve seen states like Colorado and Virginia go from being reliablyRepublican to purple to Democrat. Why? They diversified their economies and their historic Republican identity changed. This is the same trajectory Arizona faces.

Ironically, everyone assumes that because we are a southwestern state, our shift from Republican to Democrat would be because of Hispanic voters.

While I do believe that the growth among Hispanic voters is part of the shift to purple status, the increase of the Democratic vote in historically Republican areas is because of the influx of white voters from other, more liberal states. This has been the factor that has tipped the scales more than any other and will increasingly continue to favor Democratic candidates.

What can Republicans do to turn the tide? Focus on lifestyle issues that incoming voters care about and away from divisive issues that brand Arizona as fringe.

The bottom line is simply this: Arizona is changing and its changing quickly. Republicans will either recognize this objective fact and adapt, or they will be the minority party soon.

Nathan Sproul is managing director of Lincoln Strategy Group and former executive directorof the Arizona Republican Party. Twitter:@NathanSproul.

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Republicans grew our economy - and in the process, turned Arizona purple - AZCentral