Rand Paul Is the 2016 Republican Frontrunner

Don't laugh. He has built-in advantages in Iowa and New Hampshire, a party moving in his direction, and formidable fundraising potential.

If Chris Christie was ever the frontrunner for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination, he isnt anymore. All along, the theory behind his candidacy was that he could overcome his lack of conservative bona fides with a combination of personality, competence, electability, and money. Bridgegate undermines all four.

In the minds of many voters, Christies personality has morphed from brash to bully. Its harder to look competent when your top aides egregiously abused power under your nose. Christies supposed electability was based partly on polls showing that he was the only potential Republican nominee running even with Hillary Clinton. But Marist and Quinnipiac, whose surveys showed Clinton and Christie virtually tied in December, now show him trailing her by 13 and 8 points, respectively. The electability argument also depended on Christies supposed success in bringing New Jerseyans together across party lines, a harder claim now that Democrats in the state legislature are talking impeachment. And as Christies electability erodes, so will his vaunted support among GOP moneymen. As a Republican insider recently told BuzzFeeds McKay Coppins, There are definitely people jumping ship.

So if Christie is no longer the candidate to beat in the 2016 Republican race, who is? Believe it or not, its Rand Paul.

To understand the Kentucky senators hidden strength, its worth remembering this basic fact about the modern GOP: It almost never nominates first-time candidates. Since 1980, George W. Bush is the only first-timer to win a Republican nomination. And since Bush used the political network his father built, he enjoyed many of the benefits of someone who had run before. Its the same with Paul. In both Iowa and New Hampshire, he begins with an unparalleled infrastructure left over from his father Ron Pauls 2008 and 2012 campaigns.

Start with Iowa. Last May, Rand Paul gave the keynote speech at the Iowa Republican Partys annual Lincoln Day Dinner. How did he secure this prize invitation? Because the chairman, co-chairman, and finance chairman of the Iowa Republican Party all supported his father. Rand Pauls not the only potential 2012 candidate who will inherit a political infrastructure in the Hawkeye State. Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee also have networks left over from prior runs. But their supporters dont play as influential a role in the state GOP. RPI no longer stands for the Republican Party of Iowa, noted a recent article in Politico, but for Rand Paul, Inc.

Because the Iowa GOP will elect new leaders next spring, its unlikely Paulestinians will so thoroughly dominate the party leadership in 2016. But Craig Robinson, former political director of the Iowa GOP, says thats actually to Rand Pauls advantage, since it will free up some of Iowas most powerful Republicans to run his 2016 campaign. The Iowa caucuses are, famously, a test of organization. And for that reason, Robinson argues, Rand Paul has a huge advantage in this state. Theres an organization built that has grown and been able to be maintained for four to six years. Thats a headstart. Theres no other candidate who has something like that. Its almost like having the advantage of having run before.

Despite his organizational strength, Ron Pauls libertarian views capped his support in Iowa, preventing him from winning over more traditional conservatives. But in 2016, Rand Paul will be less of an ideological outlier than his father was in 2012. Thats partly because he has avoided some of his fathers edgier views. (Hes more supportive of foreign aid and sanctions against Iran, for instance.) And its partly because more Republicans now share his suspicion of the national-security state. Last summer, more than 40 percent of House Republicans voted to curb NSA data collection. Rand has a much broader appeal than his father, Robinson says. Polls reflect that: A survey last December for the Des Moines Register found Paul with a lower unfavorability rating among Iowa Republicans than either Christie or Jeb Bush.

If Paul is, arguably, the early leader in Iowa, he may be the early frontrunner in New Hampshire as well. While Ron Paul placed third in Iowa in 2012, he placed second in New Hampshire, losing only to Mitt Romney, the former governor of neighboring Massachusetts and a national frontrunner with a vast financial edge. Even before Bridgegate, Christie would have struggled to match Romneys success. Dante Scala, associate professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire, notes that in 2012 Romney had two advantages that Christie wont have this time around. First, he had a preexisting network in the state, built during his 2008 run. Second, since he was no longer a sitting governor, he had virtually unlimited time to campaign.

Now, of course, Christies chances of matching Romneys New Hampshire success look even dimmer. Most pre-Bridgegate polls showed Christie and Rand Paul virtually tied atop the prospective GOP field in the state. Post-Bridgegate, Paul looks like the stronger of the two.

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Rand Paul Is the 2016 Republican Frontrunner