Austrias Election Wasnt the Beginning of the End of the Far Right – Slate

Supporters of the Austrian Freedom Party wave flags at the Viktor-Adler-Markt in Vienna on Friday.

Michael Gruber/Getty Images

Austrias Sunday general elections ended not with a whimper but with a bang for the populist, far-right Freedom Party Austria (FP): Its support dropped from 26 percent to 16.2 percent as compared with the previous election held in October 2017. The party electorate shrank from 1.3 million voters in 2017 to about 769,000 in 2019, with 258,000 former FP votes switching to the center-right Austrian Peoples Party (VP), headed by former Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz. More than 235,000 disgruntled FP voters opted not to head to the polls at all on Election Day.

A party that only two years ago looked set to become Austrias strongest political force has now been relegated to third place, behind the center-left Social Democratic Party of Austria (SP), which in turn suffered its worst electoral defeat since the end of World War II. Does this mark the beginning of the end of the ascendancy of Austrias far right? Indeed, could Austria be the test station (Versuchsstation), to paraphrase the Austrian writer Karl Kraus, for the long-term decline of Europes other populist, far-right parties?

Hardly. The real takeaway from Sundays election is the incredible resilience of the FP, which does not bode well for those thinking that the far right will cease to be a factor in European politics in the decades ahead.

The FP promotes itself as the chief protector of Austrian identity and social welfare, both under siege by an influx of foreigners. Once untouchable in mainstream Austrian politics, it formed a government with Kurzs center-right party after its impressive showing in 2017. Its most recent fall from grace is less a sign of voters turning away from the far right than the result of very specificand likely temporarycircumstances.

The partys recent troubles began in May when longtime leader Heinz-Christian Strache was secretly filmed in Ibiza discussing favors with a purported Russian investor. The ensuing corruption scandal (Ibiza-gate) led to the end of the VP-FP coalition government and Straches resignation as both vice chancellor of Austria and party head. He remained a party member until this week, when he announced that he would suspend his membership due to an investigation by the authorities into his suspected embezzling of party funds, which purportedly financed Strache and his wifes lavish lifestyle. The allegations came to light only a few days prior to the election.

The purported misuse of party funds, strongly denied by StracheThese are all sleazy and made-up lies of a criminal network, he said in a Facebook postappears to have been the last straw for the FP leadership. For months after Ibiza-gate, Norbert Hofer, the new party leader, and his second in command, former Interior Minister Herbert Kickl (who has been engulfedin a political scandal of his own involving Austrias civilian domestic intelligence agency), were undermined by Straches inability to stay out of the spotlight, thanks to his frequent Facebook posts railing against the conspirators and secret networks he blames for his downfall, and also vicariously criticizing the new party leadership.

In an effort to dig themselves out of the crisis, Hofer and Kickl have taken on a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde division of labor, with the former assuming the role of conciliatory, moderate statesman advocating for a continuation of the coalition government, and the latter serving up the partys traditional xenophobic, anti-establishment rhetoric for the far-right base.

It was an uphill battle for multiple reasons. First, far-right parties in Europe historically have been supported by the tabloid press. In Austria, the tabloids, especially the sensationalist Krone Zeitung, continue to have the ability to influence elections with their editorial endorsements. Up until May, the Krone Zeitung was a supporter of the FP. The Ibiza video, however, showed Strache suggesting to a woman he believed to be the niece of a Russian oligarch that she buy a stake in the newspaper to gain even more favorable campaign coverage for the far right in exchange for lucrative government contracts. Despite Hofers attempt to reconcile with the Krone Zeitung, the paper, seeing its editorial independence threatened, turned against the party. (On election night, the Krone Zeitung sent out a five-letter tweetSorryunder which a screenshot of the Ibiza video was attached with a quote from Strache: If this outlet suddenly starts pushing us, then we wont be making 27 but 34 percent.)

Second, with the loss of Strache, the party also lost its more effective communications tool: his Facebook page. Over the years, the party built this into one of the countrys most influential online platforms, with more than 780,000 subscribers. (In comparison, the Krone Zeitung had a print circulation of about 790,000 in 2018.) Following his ouster in May, Strache refused to relinquish editorial control over the page and continues to treat it as his own personal website. This severely curtailed the FPs ability to directly communicate with and mobilize its supporters.

Third, as an anti-establishment party that thrived under a perceived ostracization by the Austrian political elite, Hofers tactic of openly advocating for joining a new coalition government undercut a crucial component of past FP campaigns: the victimization narrative. The FP, from its inception as a political faction openly representing exNazi Party members, saw itself as the principal victim of the political power-sharing system set up by the center right and center left during most of the postwar era. During its time in government, the FP was busy becoming part of this system by installing its party members and affiliates in senior positions within the federal bureaucracy and state-owned private sector. It could no longer claim to be a victim of the system.

Fourth, external political events were not as favorable in 2019 as they were in 2017. Immigration, or rather the fear thereof, was the top concern of Austrian (and European) voters in the wake of the 2015 European migrant crisis and an uptick in Islamic Stateinspired terrorist attacks in Europe. The FP, traditionally standing for a law-and-order approach, tough immigration laws, and anti-Muslim rhetoric, was more easily able to rally its supporters around identity politics. In 2019, no single issue dominated the election as much, although environment and climate protection topped the list with 33 percent. This benefited the Austrian Green Party, which scored its biggest electoral success in its history, claiming over 14 percent of votes, but it was not a winning issue for the FP. Hofer, as former minister for transport, innovation, and technology, advocated for raising the speed limit on the Autobahn, while Strache has repeatedly questioning of the science behind climate change.

Last, the party was deeply damaged by the recent revelations of Straches extravagant lifestyle. The FP calls itself the Social Heimat Party. Heimat has no English equivalent but is perhaps best translated as homelandthe idyllic world of yore in which Austrianness is defined as abiding by traditional conservative values and supporting for the kleine mann (little man) over the business and political elite of the country. To see one of their own engage in perceived elite behaviora post about the expensive handbags of Straches wife, Philippa, seemed to have a struck a particular discordant notewas a bitter pill for many supporters to swallow. The handbags may in fact have done more than Ibiza-gate to achieve the demobilization of large chunks of the FP electorate.

VP strategists were happy to let the party undermine itself. Kurz toned down his rhetoric against the FP following the recent revelations. Like Muhammad Ali in the last two seconds of his legendary fight against George Foreman in 1974, Kurz could passively watch the FP go down without the need for a final knockout punch.

Nonetheless, the future will be brighter for the FP than what many currently suspect.

Sundays election showed that the FP has expanded its core support from 10 percent in 2002 to 15 or 16 percent in 2019. Under the leadership of Strache, supported by a core team consisting of members of German nationalist fraternities called Burschenschaften, the once-divided party developed a unified far-right, populist message. Despite the ongoing fights over style and personal behavior, there are no longer ideological differences within the party.

At its heart, the FP remains a populist opposition party that will continue to capture the sentiments of many of those who feel like they have lost due to globalization. Promoting its particular brand of Heimat identity politics, the party will keep on playing on the fears of a large segment of Austrian society regarding illegal immigration and its impact on the pensions, as well as the health care systems and job security of Austrians. The party will be helped by a perceived inability of the other parties to address these politically incorrect issues. Simplified, populist slogans rather than concrete policy proposals were what made the party appealing in the first place. Consequently, following the dismal results on Sunday, the FP leadership was quick to announce that it will assume its traditional role as an opposition party and not seek a new coalition government with the VP. While this position may possibly change in the coming months, the FP will without a doubt be able to attract many a disgruntled voter unhappy with the current state of affairs once the current scandals blow over.

In addition, the Ibiza-gate scandal has not only hurt the credibility of the FP but all political parties and politicians. It seemed to have confirmed the assumption of a large chunk of the electorate that all politicians engage in corrupt practices and tell lies in one form or the other. The recent election campaign in that regard appears to have further confirmed this notion, as it was largely dominated by an assortment of half-truths and double talk, including disgraceful behavior by both the VP and SP when it came to campaign financing. As a result of the lack of VP-SP transparency, it will be easier for the FP to weather and recoup from any future scandals by pointing out that the whole system is rigged.

The majority of the Austrian political commentariat over the past few days has been advocating for a coalition between the Kurzs VP and the Green Party. Should Kurz enter into a coalition government with the Greens, he will no longer be able to pursue his center-right populism-lite, including his tough stance on illegal immigration, that attracted FP voters. Consequently, these voters are bound to return to the FP. In turn, should Kurz form a coalition with the SP, reviving the so-called grand coalition that governed Austria for most of the years since 1945, the FP will attack Kurzs credibility as a reformer.

Should Kurz decide to once again enter into a coalition with the FPunlikely, but possiblethe far right may have more leverage over the future chancellor than one would suspect. Given his rocky tenure so far, Kurz cannot afford another federal election in two years time. His desperation to avoid one could be exploited by the FP during negotiations for a new coalition government, while the reduced size of the FP could also guarantee the party plausible deniability in front of voters when it comes to the unpopular policies of the Kurz government.

It is important to understand that current economic and political trends still favor the far right. While its perhaps not on the winning side of history in the long run, the FP will continue to represent a sizable bloc of voters in the foreseeable future. Ostracization, as the past decades have shown, is no longer an option, and it will only fuel the partys growth.

Herein lies the dilemma of the Austrian political establishment: Engaging the partys voters will be key to guaranteeing democratic stability in the long run. But allowing the FP to reenter the government will almost certainly cause a new political scandal a few months down the road. In that sense, as the journalist Armin Wolf recently noted, Kurz and the political establishment are caught between the proverbial rock and a hard place.

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Austrias Election Wasnt the Beginning of the End of the Far Right - Slate