"Talking the Tropics With Mike": Weakening wave approaching … – ActionNewsJax.com

by: Michael Buresh Updated: Jul 12, 2017 - 7:26 AM

July 12, 2017 - The remnants of tropical depression #4 are still moving west/northwest & are approaching the Bahamas but convection has weakened even more. What's left of this wave will cross Southern Florida Thu./Fri. with some enhancement of showers & storms but no serious consequences. Redevelopment of t.d. #4 is not expected.

Shear tendency:

Imagery below courtesy CIMMS shows a newly established "blob" of African Saharan dust (orange & red) continues over the Central & especially E. Atlantic - an indication of the dry air.

The Gulf of Mexico... Caribbean & SW Atlantic:

Water vapor imagery:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Wind shear analysis - pretty harsh from the Central Atlantic & much of the Caribbean:

Tropical waves are moving off the coast of Africa but are not particularly impressive. The area is largely being held in check by the Saharan dust plume alluded to earlier.... & the "popcorn" type cloud cover from 10 to 30 degrees N is indicative of stable air. Forecast models - as a whole - have backed off on development eminating from the deep tropics over the next week - 10 days. Even the GFS model which has been very bullish in recent days has "lost" much in the way of development. But the overall environment for tropical cyclones over the deep tropics will become more conducive for tropical development the last 10-12 days of July, so the Central Atlantic will remain an area to watch.

In the E. Pacific.... "Eugene" is spinning down well west/southwest of the Baja of California... while a new tropical cyclone has formed well to the southeast.

2017 Cox Media Group.

Follow this link:

"Talking the Tropics With Mike": Weakening wave approaching ... - ActionNewsJax.com