So few people have exceeded that age, in fact, that a group of researchers published an analysisin the journal Nature last year arguing that the human species' lifespan plateaus around 115.
FILE: An elderly resident from the Cape Peninsula Organisation for the Aged holds her ID before casting her special vote on 17 May 2011. Picture: EWN
Jeanne Calment, the French woman who holds the record for the longest verified lifespan, died in 1997 at 122-years-old.
Few people, of course, ever become supercentenarians, 110-years-old or older, and even fewer hit 115.
So few people have exceeded that age, in fact, that a group of researchers published an analysis in the journal Nature last year arguing that the human species' lifespan plateaus around 115.
But a number of scientists are now rebutting that analysis with five separate commentaries published in Nature on 28 June.
The authors of these pieces argue that the original analysis relied on statistics that were incomplete or analysed in a way that led to a false conclusion. They suggest two alternatives: We either don't have enough data to know if the human lifespan has a limit, or the plateau is closer to 125 than 115.
"The available data are limited, there aren't that many supercentenarians," Maarten Pieter Rozing, a professor at the University of Copenhagen who co-authored one commentary, told The Scientist. "And I think there are no strong arguments that show there is a decline [in the rate at which lifespans are increasing]."
WHY SOME THINK LIFE ENDS AT 115
Life expectancy has crept up fairly steadily over the past 150 years or so. But Xiao Dong, Brandon Milholland, and Jan Vijg, the authors of the original analysis, argue that comparing the life expectancy of supercentenarians to the age at which they died can reveal the natural limit of the human lifespan.
The scientists used data on maximum reported age at death split into two sets based on supercentenarians from the US, UK, Japan, and France. The first set covered deaths from 1968 to 1994 - a period when the maximum age was inching up. But by the time covered in the next dataset, from 1995 to 2006, the age seemed to plateau or even slightly be on the decline (exceptions like Calment aside).
Life expectancy, however, rose throughout both time periods. The scientists, therefore, concluded that because humans' maximum age didn't keep rising with life expectancy, it appeared a limit had been reached.
Even if we were to cure various diseases like cancer or Alzheimer's, those scientists still claimed that humans would probably be unlikely to live past 115. And they put the chances of a person live past 125 at less than 1 in 10,000.
LIMIT OR ILLUSION?
The authors of the recent rebuttals say that because there are so few supercentenarians out there, the number of deaths for this age group between 1995 and 2006 is too small to yield reliable conclusions. There just haven't been enough supercentenarians to really pinpoint a maximum age.
As people live longer, it's likely that more will push past that supposed limit, the authors of the rebuttals argue - it'll just take time to get there.
"[T]he idea of a set limit to human longevity is not strongly supported by what is being discovered about the biology of ageing," Rozing and his co-authors wrote in their commentary.
"The continuing increase in human life expectancy that has occurred over recent decades was unforeseen. It provides evidence for greater malleability of human ageing than was originally thought."
Over the span of human history, many of the lifespan increases we've seen would have been unimaginable at some point. Those living 200 years ago, for example, would have thought it was crazy that people could regularly live to be 80. Yet here we are.
Rozing told The Scientist that there's an easy way to find out whose hypothesis is correct about the maximum lifespan.
"[W]e can just wait and see who's right," he said.
Written by Kevin Loria.
This article was republished courtesy of the World Economic Forum.
See the original post here:
Want to live forever? Science thinks that might be possible - Eyewitness News
- The Long Run: Life is a marathon - Video [Last Updated On: September 7th, 2012] [Originally Added On: September 7th, 2012]
- Notably longer lifespan with Activated carbon also fullerenes give 36 pct to Doubled longevity - Video [Last Updated On: September 7th, 2012] [Originally Added On: September 7th, 2012]
- Introduction to Life Insurance - Basic History of Life Insurance - Video [Last Updated On: September 7th, 2012] [Originally Added On: September 7th, 2012]
- 25 Ways You Can Live A Longer Life - Video [Last Updated On: September 7th, 2012] [Originally Added On: September 7th, 2012]
- Celebrating longevity: the shape of the future [Last Updated On: September 30th, 2012] [Originally Added On: September 30th, 2012]
- Losing pounds won’t gain you longevity [Last Updated On: September 30th, 2012] [Originally Added On: September 30th, 2012]
- Molecular process in fat cells that influences stress and longevity identified [Last Updated On: September 30th, 2012] [Originally Added On: September 30th, 2012]
- Joslin Scientists Identify Molecular Process in Fat Cells That Influences Stress and Longevity [Last Updated On: September 30th, 2012] [Originally Added On: September 30th, 2012]
- Join GSA in San Diego for the Nation's Premier Aging Conference! [Last Updated On: September 30th, 2012] [Originally Added On: September 30th, 2012]
- Need-to-know news and views for UB faculty and staff [Last Updated On: September 30th, 2012] [Originally Added On: September 30th, 2012]
- Eunuchs May Hold Key to Longevity [Last Updated On: October 1st, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 1st, 2012]
- New Jersey Senior Care Company Teams Up with the American Society on Aging to Offer Free Continuing Education Units ... [Last Updated On: October 1st, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 1st, 2012]
- Buffalo Grove discusses move to merit-based raises [Last Updated On: October 1st, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 1st, 2012]
- Men without testicles might live longer, study suggests [Last Updated On: October 1st, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 1st, 2012]
- Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon [Last Updated On: October 2nd, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 2nd, 2012]
- What whales tell us about the evolution of menopause [Last Updated On: October 2nd, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 2nd, 2012]
- For longevity, it's the survival of the nicest Save [Last Updated On: October 3rd, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 3rd, 2012]
- Information Nation: Digital Social Experiment to Put a Human Face on Big Data [Last Updated On: October 4th, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 4th, 2012]
- The Other Side of a Businesswoman [Last Updated On: October 6th, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 6th, 2012]
- Dr. Mao's Wellness Living: Coping With Loneliness To Increase Longevity [Last Updated On: October 9th, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 9th, 2012]
- Over The Counter: Chocolate and caffeine - good news on the healthfront [Last Updated On: October 9th, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 9th, 2012]
- How Did Woman Live to 132? [Last Updated On: October 10th, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 10th, 2012]
- World's 'oldest person' dies at 132 [Last Updated On: October 10th, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 10th, 2012]
- Sandoval says he never promised to restore state workers' pay [Last Updated On: October 10th, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 10th, 2012]
- Was she really 132? World's 'oldest ever person' dies in remote Georgian village [Last Updated On: October 12th, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 12th, 2012]
- Local businesses honored for their longevity [Last Updated On: October 12th, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 12th, 2012]
- Living longer comes easier [Last Updated On: October 15th, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 15th, 2012]
- Human Life Span Took Huge Jump in Past Century [Last Updated On: October 15th, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 15th, 2012]
- Einstein establishes the Paul F. Glenn Center for the Biology of Human Aging Research [Last Updated On: October 15th, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 15th, 2012]
- A Pig, a Girl, and a Spider: 'Charlotte's Web' at 60 [Last Updated On: October 15th, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 15th, 2012]
- Modern humans found to be fittest ever at survival, by far [Last Updated On: October 16th, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 16th, 2012]
- New research examines modern humans’ ability to extend lifespan [Last Updated On: October 16th, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 16th, 2012]
- "Seventy-two Is the New 30": Why Are We Living So Much Longer? [Last Updated On: October 17th, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 17th, 2012]
- Thanks grandma! Human longevity 'down to older females who carried on caring for their offspring's young families' [Last Updated On: October 31st, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 31st, 2012]
- How Grandmothers Gave Us Longer Lives [Last Updated On: October 31st, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 31st, 2012]
- Humans Evolved To Live Longer Because Of Grandmothers [Last Updated On: October 31st, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 31st, 2012]
- Grandmas made humans live longer: Chimp lifespan evolves into human longevity, computer simulation shows [Last Updated On: October 31st, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 31st, 2012]
- swissnex Connector Award- Meet Prof Joe Brain - Video [Last Updated On: October 31st, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 31st, 2012]
- Castration May Lead to Longer Life for Men - Video [Last Updated On: October 31st, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 31st, 2012]
- Dr Todd Ovokaitys on 2012 and Human Longevity - Video [Last Updated On: October 31st, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 31st, 2012]
- The Greatest Threat to Retirement Savings is Human Longevity - Video [Last Updated On: October 31st, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 31st, 2012]
- Long for This World - trailer - Video [Last Updated On: October 31st, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 31st, 2012]
- Much longer lifespan from eating Activated carbon or fullerenes (a third to 2 times longevity) - Video [Last Updated On: October 31st, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 31st, 2012]
- Mind Fire Trailer - Video [Last Updated On: October 31st, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 31st, 2012]
- 1st HOUR (SEE DOT, UPPER LEFT) 6/5/12 live ! VENUS TRANSIT @ 3:52pm(pst) - Video [Last Updated On: October 31st, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 31st, 2012]
- Resveratrol finding by Japan scientist - Video [Last Updated On: October 31st, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 31st, 2012]
- The Impact of Human Longevity On Life Insurance - Video [Last Updated On: October 31st, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 31st, 2012]
- The Mortality Revolution -- Steve Savant - Video [Last Updated On: October 31st, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 31st, 2012]
- Good Guys song from Skull and Bones 2012 album entitled "Conspiracy, Aliens and Nazis" - Video [Last Updated On: October 31st, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 31st, 2012]
- Changing One Codon Of Telomerase Gives Greater Human Longevity.flv - Video [Last Updated On: October 31st, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 31st, 2012]
- Religion and Indefinite Life Extension - Video [Last Updated On: October 31st, 2012] [Originally Added On: October 31st, 2012]
- Solving the mystery of aging: Longevity gene makes Hydra immortal and humans grow older [Last Updated On: November 14th, 2012] [Originally Added On: November 14th, 2012]
- Human Longevity - Video [Last Updated On: November 18th, 2012] [Originally Added On: November 18th, 2012]
- Single Premium Life Insurance with Living Benefits - Video [Last Updated On: November 20th, 2012] [Originally Added On: November 20th, 2012]
- Bern Shen on how technology reduces some risk and increases others - Video [Last Updated On: November 24th, 2012] [Originally Added On: November 24th, 2012]
- Experts on key drivers of human longevity - Video [Last Updated On: November 24th, 2012] [Originally Added On: November 24th, 2012]
- James Heywood on what is health and how we can learn what it means - Video [Last Updated On: November 24th, 2012] [Originally Added On: November 24th, 2012]
- Nick Wood on translating genetics into neurological disease and management - Video [Last Updated On: November 24th, 2012] [Originally Added On: November 24th, 2012]
- Omid Farokhzad on transforming drug delivery through nano-medicine - Video [Last Updated On: November 24th, 2012] [Originally Added On: November 24th, 2012]
- Elias Mossialos on health policy and innovating for longevity - Video [Last Updated On: November 24th, 2012] [Originally Added On: November 24th, 2012]
- Helen Chung on health policy and longer lives - Video [Last Updated On: November 24th, 2012] [Originally Added On: November 24th, 2012]
- Daniel Ryan on the role of the insurance industry funding longer lives - Video [Last Updated On: November 24th, 2012] [Originally Added On: November 24th, 2012]
- Study: Education Extends Longevity—Except for Black Males [Last Updated On: November 26th, 2012] [Originally Added On: November 26th, 2012]
- Tom Kirkwood on Understanding the links between disease and ageing - Video [Last Updated On: December 7th, 2012] [Originally Added On: December 7th, 2012]
- Christoph Nabholz on Whole genome analysis and insurance consequences - Video [Last Updated On: December 7th, 2012] [Originally Added On: December 7th, 2012]
- Daniel Ryan on Medical demands of an ageing population - Video [Last Updated On: December 7th, 2012] [Originally Added On: December 7th, 2012]
- Libertarian Life-Extension Reforms - #2 - Abolishing Medical Licensing Protectionism - Video [Last Updated On: December 8th, 2012] [Originally Added On: December 8th, 2012]
- Libertarian Life-Extension Reforms - #1 - Repeal FDA Approval Requirements - Video [Last Updated On: December 8th, 2012] [Originally Added On: December 8th, 2012]
- Libertarian Life-Extension Reforms - #3-4 - Abolishing Medical and Software Patent Monopolies - Video [Last Updated On: December 9th, 2012] [Originally Added On: December 9th, 2012]
- How Proposals to Raise Medicare, Social Security Ages Can Harm Americans [Last Updated On: December 15th, 2012] [Originally Added On: December 15th, 2012]
- Bats offer clues to immunity, longevity [Last Updated On: December 24th, 2012] [Originally Added On: December 24th, 2012]
- Biology Of Human Longevity: - Video [Last Updated On: December 26th, 2012] [Originally Added On: December 26th, 2012]
- AXA Longevity-Pr. Stephen Coles: Is there an upper limit to human longevity? - Video [Last Updated On: July 3rd, 2013] [Originally Added On: July 3rd, 2013]
- New Buck Institute study extends life span to human equivalent of 400 to 500 years [Last Updated On: December 20th, 2013] [Originally Added On: December 20th, 2013]
- Human longevity: Research on animals and centenarians shows ... [Last Updated On: December 20th, 2013] [Originally Added On: December 20th, 2013]
- Human Mortality Database [Last Updated On: December 20th, 2013] [Originally Added On: December 20th, 2013]
- Biodemography of human longevity - Wikipedia, the free ... [Last Updated On: December 20th, 2013] [Originally Added On: December 20th, 2013]
- Longevity - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia [Last Updated On: December 20th, 2013] [Originally Added On: December 20th, 2013]
- Longevity Science: Unraveling the Secrets of Human Longevity ... [Last Updated On: December 20th, 2013] [Originally Added On: December 20th, 2013]
- Review: Loyce Houlton's 'Nutcracker' retains its energy [Last Updated On: December 21st, 2013] [Originally Added On: December 21st, 2013]