Western Caribbean Bears Watching for Tropical Development This Weekend – The Weather Channel

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An area of low pressure could form in the northwest Caribbean this weekend.

If the low develops, there is some chance that it could eventually become a tropical depression or tropical storm.

The western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are typical formation areas during June.

The western Caribbean could be an area to watch for the potential development of a tropical depression or tropical storm by this weekend.

Current satellite imagery shows no vigorous shower and thunderstorm activity in the western Caribbean, but that may change in the days ahead.

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The output from various computer forecast models has beenindicating an overall increase in stormy weather in the western Caribbean later this week into the weekend. Those models have also depicted that an area of low pressure may eventually form near or on either side of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula (southwest Gulf or northwest Caribbean).

A well-defined low-pressure system is needed for a tropical depression or tropical storm to organize.

The potential development may be tied to a tropical wave that is expected to move near Central America this week before turning north towardthe northwest Caribbean, according to theNational Weather Service in Houston. Tropical waves can sometimes help spark the formation of a tropical depression or tropicalstorm.

Interaction withland areas of Central America and the Yucatan, however, could hinder the possible development of this system. Tropical systems need to be located over warm waters to grow.

If an area oflow pressure does form, most of the forecast guidance suggests it would track in the direction of the southwest Gulf of Mexico early next week.

That said, there is no cause for concern if you come across images on social media of computer model forecasts indicating a potential tropical storm next week in the Gulf of Mexico.

The situation bears watching, but it's far from certain whether any tropical system will actually develop. At the very least, we may see a surge of tropical moisture work its way northward towardthe Gulf Coast.

Check back with weather.com during the week ahead for updates on this potential system.

The western Caribbean andGulf of Mexicoare two of the areas we typically look for the development of tropical storms in June.

Any storms that do form typically track north or northeastward, which brings the Gulf Coast and the Southeast coast in play for potential impacts.

On average, there's one June named storm in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico every one to twoyears.

June 2016 was an outlier with Bonnie, Colin and Danielle all spinning through the Atlantic basin as tropical storms.

(MORE: What to Expect During June)

MORE ON WEATHER.COM: Atlantic Basin Retired Hurricanes and Tropical Storms

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Western Caribbean Bears Watching for Tropical Development This Weekend - The Weather Channel