Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea could yield second tropical system in the Atlantic Basin of 2017 – AccuWeather.com

The tropical Atlantic Basin is expected to remain quiet this week, but conditions for development may arise in the vicinity of southeastern Mexico next week.

Several disorganized clusters of showers and thunderstorms known as tropical waves will continue to move westward over the open tropical Atlantic this week. However, negative factors will keep these waves weak and disorganized in the short term.

The most significant negative factor is wind shear. Wind shear is the change of the direction and speed air currents at different levels of the atmosphere. Strong wind shear can prevent the development of tropical systems.

"Wind shear is likely to remain significant in the potential development area from the western Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico this week," according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.

However, weakening wind shear may open the door for possible development in the area by early next week.

The lowering wind shear may produce a suitable environment for development somewhere from the northwestern Caribbean to the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during June 18-24.

"Water temperatures are marginally warm at best over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico but are sufficiently warm in the northwestern Caribbean," Kottlowski said.

"As a result, there's a chance a system gets going in the northwestern Caribbean first then wanders into the Gulf of Mexico."

Tropical systems rely on warm ocean water as fuel. If the water is not warm enough or the depth of warm water is not deep enough, then storms can struggle to develop or maintain intensity.

While formation of a tropical system is one thing, projecting where the system will track is another.

The latest indications are that a path in the northern Gulf of Mexico may be blocked next week.

"If this new blocking idea holds up, any tropical system that forms may be more likely to track westward toward Mexico rather than northward toward the United States," Kottlowski said.

Given all of these factors, there is a low chance but not a high chance for the formation of a tropical depression in the general area of the Yucatan Peninsula by early next week.

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Early in the hurricane season, the typical breeding grounds for tropical systems are in the Gulf of Mexico and far western Caribbean.

While it is still too early to tell exactly where and if a tropical depression will form, folks along the Gulf Coast and others with interests in the area will want to monitor the situation over the next week.

If a tropical system were to develop, it would be the second of the 2017 Atlantic season.

The second name on the list of tropical storms for this year is Bret. Arlene, the first storm on the list, formed back in April in the open Atlantic well west of the Azores.

Regardless if an organized system does develop or not, an uptick in tropical downpours will be possible along the Gulf Coast next week.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially started June 1 and runs through Nov. 30, with the peak of the season occurring in late August through September.

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Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea could yield second tropical system in the Atlantic Basin of 2017 - AccuWeather.com