Britain’s embattled ‘liberal elite’ has taken its revenge – The Guardian

Galvanised by the referendum Young anti-Brexit protesters at Downing Street, June 2016. Photograph: Isabel Infantes/PA

Before that other surprising election night the one back in 2015 that now seems a very long time ago it had seemed that Britain had become a political environment where it was impossible to build a secure majority for any party. For every gain in support from somewhere, a party would lose some from the other end of its electoral coalition.

In 2015, David Cameron proved that it could be done, at least for one election, and for a while the Conservatives under Theresa May looked to have found a way of building a big majority. Perhaps Brexit had unlocked a future that would consistently deliver one-party hegemony for the Conservatives. It looked like Labours vote was badly split between the liberal remainer tribe and the partys traditional supporters who favoured Brexit, who were ready to defect to the Conservatives. But, as it turned out, the coalition of support that the Tories had enjoyed during Mays honeymoon was also too broad to survive.

The Conservatives achieved some of their aims in the election. They did gain some white working-class seats from Labour in the north and midlands, winning some new territory in places such as Mansfield (Labour since 1923), and North East Derbyshire and Stoke-on-Trent South (both Labour since 1935). The raid on Labours leave-voting heartlands came away with some prizes but the very campaign messages that helped them win those seats alienated some of the Conservatives own former supporters.

The Conservative vote in 2010 and 2015 included many liberal, free-market, pro-European electors who were increasingly alarmed by the drift towards isolationism and hard Brexit; May had assumed that the Conservatives could take these people for granted given the threat of Jeremy Corbyn. The disquiet among those Cameron-style Tories was amplified by the feelings of Britains liberal tribe.

The Liberal Democrats had a poor election overall, with the Conservatives consolidating their hold on past strongholds such as Yeovil and running Tim Farron close in his own constituency. But they picked up shock wins in Bath and Oxford West & Abingdon, as well as restoring Vince Cable and Ed Davey to their south London constituencies.

Labours share fell in Oxford West, helping to eject a Conservative MP, while it soared in Oxford East. Labours first-time gains in Canterbury and Portsmouth South which they did not manage even in 1997 came with the help of falls in the Green and Lib Dem vote totals. It was a surprising resurrection of tactical voting and progressive alliances on the ground. It could be that the vilification of the remainers the sense that a part of society had been pushed into a corner encouraged them to vote and to maximise the power of their vote.

The outcome of the referendum, by demonstrating the power of a vote to do something radical in a way that many young people and disengaged liberals disliked, encouraged them to strike back against the complacent assumptions of the people with power. Perhaps also the freedom to do the unexpected and radical encouraged Scottish voters to embrace the Conservative and Unionist party. The Scottish Tories a milder breed for the most part than their English counterparts have a lot of power in the new parliament if they choose to use it.

Theresa May must be wishing that remain die-hards were indeed citizens of nowhere, because that would mean they couldnt vote. Among all the cross-currents of the election the youth vote that finally turned out, the Ukip-to-Conservative movement that happened but not as powerfully as most expected, the dramatic drop in the SNP vote was the revenge of liberal Britain. For the first time in many years, a party has paid a price for scorning the embattled liberal elite.

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Britain's embattled 'liberal elite' has taken its revenge - The Guardian