Britain’s Liberal Enclaves Are Turning Tory – Bloomberg

In the small fishing village of Mousehole, assistant harbormaster Bill Johnson dismisses most of what is being said in the run-up to the U.K. election as a lot of gobbledygook.

Gibberish aside, the 60-year-old is clear on one thing. A year after voting for Brexit, hes turning from the Liberal Democrats to the Conservatives, the only party he trusts to complete Britains withdrawal from the European Union.

A local shop in Mousehole.

Photographer: Chris J. Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

Theresa Mayneeds a mandate to push things through on Brexit,said Johnson in his office overlooking the little harbor with its sailboats, kayaks and paddle boards. Shes the only one going in with a strong line.

Johnsons switch illustrates a dilemma for the traditional third party in British politics, whichsuffered a near wipe-out in the last election and is running on an unabashedlypro-EU platform targeting the 48 percent of Remainers. Problem is, it'sgetting the cold shoulder. Even as Mays poll lead is waning, the main beneficiary isJeremy Corbyns Labour Party.

In the closing stages of the election, assumptions have been turned on their head, from Mays initial commanding advantage in public opinion to the theory that the Liberal Democrats could sop up support among almost half of the population that had never wanted Brexit to come to pass.

Unfortunately for the Liberal Democrats, it is stuck in the polls around the 10 percent mark, little more than the 8 percent they won in the 2015 election.

Thats why places like Mousehole, described by the poet Dylan Thomas as the loveliest village in England,matter to a party fighting for political relevance as it seeks to regain a foothold in itsformer stronghold of southwest England. The region stretches from Cornwall to the rolling hills of the Cotswolds, taking in cities such as Bath, known for its Roman baths, and Plymouth, from where the Pilgrim Fathers departed for the Americas in 1620.

Surfboards and kayaks propped up against the harbor wall in Mousehole.

Photographer: Chris J. Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

The Liberal Democrats sensed a shot at a comeback when May called a surprise snap election, arguing she needed a personal mandate and a bigger majority to stand up to the EU in negotiations. They too would make Brexit their strong suit: by opposing it.

Ten minutes after Mays election announcement on April 18, Liberal Democrat LeaderTim Farronrushed out a short statement tellingvoters that this election is your chance to change the direction of our country and avoid a disastrous hard Brexit.

But the Brexit message is always going to be a difficult one to fight because it seems to go against the notion of democracy,said Thom Oliver, a politics lecturer at the University of the West of England and a Liberal Democrat expert.

The offer to revisit the 2016 decision with a second referendum at the end of the Brexit talks may work in cosmopolitan London but further afield could go down as sour grapes given that the party lost that argument, he explained. In fact, for some Liberal Democrats campaigning for a seat in the southwest, its simply not a selling point.

Andrew George.

Photographer: Chris J. Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

My answer to the Brexit question is its going to happen, you cant stop it, theres not going to be a second referendum, whatever Tim Farron says, said Andrew George, 58, the partys candidate for the St. Ives seat, a district where Johnson and 55 percent of voters chose Brexit. All this theoretical posturing is kind of irrelevant.

All but three of the 15 seats the party lost in southwest England in 2015 voted for Brexit.

George represented St. Ives in the House of Commons for 18 years until the partys electoral annihilation two years ago, when it lost all but 8 of the 57 seats it took in 2010. Hes focusing his campaign on local issuesnot Brexit, but is nevertheless downbeat about his prospects: I think the Tories will edge it here.

Weighing on Georges chances are a number of other factors: U.K. Independence Party voters switching to the Tories, an influx of retirees swelling the ranks of Tory voters, and a change in the district boundaries in 2010 that turned St. Ives from a stronghold into a marginal seat.

The town of St. Ives.

Photographer: Chris J. Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

After a few missteps, May has retrenched into campaigning in areas that Tories hold rather than her earlier, more ambitious play to destroy Labour bastions in the north. On Wednesday, when a shock survey showed the election could resultin a hung Parliament, May showed up in Bath, a seat the Liberal Democrats are trying to wrest back. It's also one of those southwestern bulwarksof the `Remain' vote on Brexit.

Voters here in the southwest are vitally important for this election, May said. In 2015 at the last election, your votes gave my party 15 more seats. If I lose just sixof those, then the government risks losing its majority, and we risk Jeremy Corbyn becoming prime minister.

Johnson, the harbormaster, isnt the only Brexit supporter turning to May. April Westlake, 78, also voted for the Liberal Democrats in the last election butthinks May is just what the country needs right now.

We need a lady like her to get us out of the mess were in,she said of the prime minister while out walkingher French bull terrier in Marazion, a postcard-pretty village opposite St. Michaels Mount, a tidal island topped by a castle and chapel.

Peter Freeman.

Photographer: Chris J. Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

The same goes for Peter Freeman, the 68-year-old owner of a charter boat business in St. Ives. A longtime Liberal Democrat voter, he switched to UKIP in 2015 and now doesnt trust his old party. They want to interfere in the Brexit negotiations to weaken Theresa Mays hand, he said. Shes the only one I can see who will get the best result.

Still, for every Conservative supporter Bloomberg found, there was a Liberal Democrat to match, suggesting itll be a tight race and anything can happen.

Shirley Beck, who says she was the only Labour Mayor in the West country in 1993, istoying with the idea ofvotingfor the Liberal Democrats in St. Ives.

Why? Nothing to do with Brexit. Its because George supports re-openingthe local hospital.

Go here to see the original:

Britain's Liberal Enclaves Are Turning Tory - Bloomberg