Predicting eclipse crowds: More astrology than astronomy – Bend Bulletin

Why a solar eclipse happens isnt exactly a mysterious concept. Astronomers have been studying the celestial events for centuries, and the science behind them is well-documented.

The science behind solar eclipse-chasing crowd sizes, on the other hand, can be as cloudy as a late August day on the Oregon Coast.

How many people are going to descend on Central Oregon to watch the moon block out the sun at 10:19 a.m. Aug. 21 has been the million-dollar question since local officials started preparing for the event more than a year ago, said Lysa Vattimo, who was hired by the city of Madras in 2016 to oversee local eclipse planning.

Its what everybody is dying to know, Vattimo said.

Predictions of how many visitors will show up vary, but the states Office of Emergency Management forecasts that about 1 million people will come to Oregon to watch the eclipse an estimate it based very broadly, OEM Emergency Planner Erik Rau said, on the number of campsites, hotel rooms, permitted events and an additional number as a percentage of the state population.

Its such a tricky number to try and get to because we really dont know, said OEM spokesperson Paula Negele.

Closer to home, local officials estimates fall closer to 200,000 total eclipse visitors for Jefferson, Crook and Deschutes counties.

But the truth is, Vattimo said, trying to figure out the size of the eclipse crowds is more akin to astrology than astronomy.

People dont really like the crystal-ball theory, but thats basically what it is looking into a crystal ball, she said.

Its up to each county in the state to figure out their respective eclipse crowd estimates as time permits, Rau wrote in an email to The Bulletin, noting that estimating those numbers is very challenging.

The few case studies available for regional eclipse tourism (Travel Salem researched an eclipse from Cairns, Australia in 2012) arent useful in providing specific numbers, but did confirm that large numbers of people will make an effort to travel in order to view an eclipse, he wrote in the email.

One way to do the math

In Central Oregon, a tri-county incident-management team was put together to oversee eclipse-related events, and it came up with a visitor number 204,000 that local officials can work with. Mike Ryan, the emergency services manager for Crook County who helps oversee the regional team, went over the formula the team managers used to reach its estimated visitor total.

I used to be able to recite it from memory, but all the numbers keep changing, he said, shuffling through papers to find the formula.

According to Ryan, the incident-management team starts with the number of potential visitors who could attend private, regional events based on event permit attendance caps.

Then it adds in the number of hotel rooms in Central Oregon multiplied by a factor of 2.3 to account for how many people will probably be staying in the hotel rooms, Ryan explained.

Lets say there are 30 rooms, and 10 have two people in the room; 10 have three, and 10 have four. Ryan said, trailing off. Basically it takes into consideration a couple or a couple plus 1 or 2 or 3 or 4.

Finally, Ryan said, throw in the total number of Bureau of Land Management and U.S. Forest Service campsites multiplied by a factor of four or eight BLM sites allow eight people to camp; USFS sites allow four as well as 10 percent of the tri-county population, 21,000.

Twenty-one thousand is the visiting friends and family or people that are renting a room or an RV from someone, he said, adding that the management team predicts another 100,000 or so people will drive to the area for one day only. So 204,000 is the total number of visitors. I usually clarify that by saying these numbers could be low or high.

Another method

Demonstrating the inexact science behind eclipse crowd estimates, Vattimo, whos in charge of predicting how many eclipse chasers will come to Madras, conducts her math a little differently from Ryan. Using a formula she came up with, Vattimo recently upped her original local forecast that around 75,000 people would come to Madras to watch the eclipse by more than 25,000 people. She reports her new estimate, about 102,000, with an air of cautious confidence. After all, she said, her formula was given the OK by the states Office of Emergency Management.

They told me thats probably a really good approach to use, probably, Vattimo said, referring to her formula, which she proceeded to break down.

According to Vattimo, she takes the number of hotel rooms in Madras, plus the total number of campsites she knows about at privately run events around town. Then she adds the number of owner-occupied single-family homes in Madras and the citys total population to the mix. She multiplies the total by four the approximate number of people she assumes will be visiting the citys residents.

Not everyone will have four people, but down the street someone will have 16, Vattimo said, explaining why she multiplies by four a factor Ryan said he considers maybe a little too high.

Finally, Vattimo said she adds in 10 percent of Deschutes Countys population to account for the number of people she thinks will be traveling north to escape Bends inferior solar eclipse viewing experience.

There you have it 102,000, she said. I just went with it; I had to have something to give the public safety and public works departments. I was tired of hearing all these big numbers thrown out there; it sounded like people were pulling numbers out of the sky.

Reporter: 541-617-7829,

awest@bendbulletin.com

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Predicting eclipse crowds: More astrology than astronomy - Bend Bulletin