Disruption denial vs fanciful futurism: Nor-Shipping debate continues – Lloyd’s List

Nor-Shippings opening conference asked whether shipping is in a state of denial when it comes to disruption. Seba: Why do smart people at smart organisations consistently fail to anticipate or lead market disruption?

Panellists in Oslo agree disruptive change is inevitable, but have very different details in mind

IS shipping in a state of denial when it comes to disruption or has the echo chamber of glib futurist forecasting misunderstood the inherent adaptability of an industry built on constantly changing trade patterns?

That was the crux of the debate as Nor-Shippings opening conference got under way in Oslo on Tuesday.

Disruptive talks had been promised by the event organisers and were duly delivered in bulk as keynote speaker and self-styled disruptive guru Tony Seba launched into a compelling treatise on the inevitable epoch shift looming large for shipowners.

Why do smart people at smart organisations consistently fail to anticipate or lead market disruption? he asked, before explaining why interlocking technological advances will result in self-driving electric vehicles dominating the global market by 2030.

Electric vehicles are 10 times cheaper to power than their fossil fuel equivalents, he argued, adding that self-driving models effectively render the decision to own a car economically senseless.

Its a basic economic choice and we have already gone from ownership to on-demand models everywhere else, he said.

By 2030, 95% of passenger kilometres will be in autonomous electric vehicles, resulting in 80% fewer cars on the road.

Nor-Shipping 2017

Read our dedicated page on the international maritime community in Oslo, for a week of top-quality exhibition, high-level conferences and prime networking opportunities.

The implications of such a shift are obvious enough, not least in terms of massively reduced oil demand, radically reduced component shipping and significant shifts in trade patterns.

However, Mr Seba took the argument further, suggesting that electric, autonomous shipping was not the fanciful prediction of a far-out futurist, but an economic inevitability.

Heading up the counter-argument to the increasingly herd-like disruptive lobby, Grieg Group chair Elisabeth Grieg pointed out that change has been something of a constant theme in shipping over the centuries and disruption was hardly an alien concept to most shipowners.

Profound change is happening and will fundamentally change how we do business, she conceded, but those with the foresight to adapt and change will always survive.

Digitalisation will change what our businesses do, but global transportation will remain in some form, she said.

Tsakos Energy Navigation president Nikolas Tsakos was less measured in his response, arguing that autonomous very large crude carriers were never going to happen and shipowners were always on their feet when it comes to shifting markets and black swan risks.

I would like to start smoking whatever youre smoking, he quipped in response to the Californian professors forecast.

Nevertheless, the shipping representatives all conceded that disruptive change was not just likely, but inevitable and the impact on their businesses would be significant.

I see an acceleration in the changes we are facing as an industry, said Gulf Navigation chief executive Khamis Juma Buamim. Shipping is going through a transformation right now, but a significant part of it is cost cutting, not just technology and digitisation.

One point that did strike a chord with both the panel and the wider audience was Mr Sebas response to the question of whether there was any room to invest in ships any more.

Do you need to invest in ships? Yes. Just not the ones you have now, he said referring to a slew of forecasts anticipating a gravitational shift towards different vessel types, smaller parcel sizes and, in many segments, fewer cargoes shipped.

More here:
Disruption denial vs fanciful futurism: Nor-Shipping debate continues - Lloyd's List