What right-wing populism? Polls reveal that it’s liberalism that’s surging. – Vox

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For liberals, one of most disturbing things about the 2016 election was that it seemed to indicate a massive lurch to the right in a country they thought was getting more, not less, liberal. Many contemplated with varying degrees of seriousness whether they should simply leave a country which had suddenly become hostile territory.

That was a suspect view even at the time of Trumps election Clinton did, after all, get almost 3 million more votes than Donald Trump. But its even more suspect now, as public opinion polls have shown over and over since last November.

What these polls have revealed is, despite fears of surging right-wing populism, we are seeing surging liberalism instead. Consider the ultra-hot button issue of immigration. In April, the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll asked the public whether immigration helps the United States more than it hurts it, or immigration hurts the United States more than it helps it? The response: 60 percent said it helps more than it hurts, and just 32 percent said hurts more than it helps. That is the strongest positive evaluation this poll has ever gotten on this question.

In fact, as the chart below indicates, positive feelings about immigration have generally been rising since early 2016, including through Trumps election and beyond. And if you go back to 2005, when the question was first asked by NBC/WSJ, positive feelings today are way higher than they were back then. (In 2005, only 37 percent thought immigration helped more than it hurt.)

If populism means resentment of immigrants who are taking the jobs of native-born Americans, it is not to be found in these numbers. So lets look elsewhere. No proposal is more symbolic of Trumps pledge to combat illegal immigration, and generally place America first, than his pledge to build that famous wall along the Mexican border. Right after Trump got elected, the Quinnipiac University poll pegged support for building the wall at 42 percent. Since then it has dropped steadily, and is down to about 33 percent. (Sixty-four percent of respondents, meanwhile, were opposed.)

Nor are Americans rising up in their millions against trade with the rest of the world another signature populist Trump issue. On the contrary, support for trade has never been higher. Since 1993, Gallup has asked the public whether foreign trade is more of an economic opportunity or economic threat. A stunning 72 percent now say its more of an opportunity. As the chart show, this is far, far higher than that sentiment has ever been before.

Despite Trumps grandstanding on immigration and trade, he seems to be singularly ineffective in getting Americans to turn their backs on the rest of the world. Instead, we are seeing more openness than ever. Perhaps by putting things so extremely, Trump has simply reminded many Americans that engagement with the global economy is, on balance, a good thing and that trying to shut it down is a silly, pointless endeavor.

Nor has Trump convinced Americans that getting rid of the Affordable Care Act is a great idea. On that issue, Trump wasnt blazing a new populist path but rather signing onto a long-held Republican goal. But here again, hes only succeeded in making Americans more supportive of the legislation.

In the aftermath of Trumps election and the GOPs shambolic attempts to get rid of the ACA, this landmark piece of liberal legislation has finally achieved what it never had before: a net positive image in the eyes of the public. As for the proposed alternative, the Republican bill that passed the House, the American Health Care Act, has a stunningly low approval rating of 21 percent in the latest Quinnipiac poll. Nor does Trumps supposed base, white noncollege voters, embrace it: They approve it at the dismal rate of 25 percent.

Trump fails to understand, and liberals should always remember, one of the most enduring features of American public opinion. The dominant ideology in the United States is one that combines symbolic conservatism (honoring tradition, distrusting novelty, embracing the conservative label) with operational liberalism (wanting government to take more action in a wide variety of areas). As Christopher Ellis and James Stimson, two leading academic analysts of American ideology, note: Most Americans like most government programs. Most of the time, on average, we want government to do more and spend more. It is no accident that we have created the programs of the welfare state. They were created and are sustained by massive public support.

Thats why, now that the ACA has delivered concrete benefits for many people, it is so very hard to get rid of. Indeed, Trump greatest accomplishment so far may be in unleashing Americans inner operational liberal. In the NBC/WSJ poll, more people than ever 57 percent say they want a government that does more to solve problems and meet peoples needs; only 39 percent say that government does too many things best left to businesses and individuals. As the chart shows, that is the strongest pro-government response since this questions was first asked in 1995.

Were seeing this operational liberalism emerge in wide variety of areas. The phenomenon is nicely captured by a new Pew poll that asked the public whether they would like to see spending in the federal budget increased, decreased, or kept the same in 14 different areas. Compared to 2013, as the chart below shows, support for government spending is up in every area, with substantial increases in big-ticket areas like education, infrastructure, health care, and scientific research. This, of course, is pretty much the opposite of what Trumps vague but draconian budget proposal has called for.

How about the environment and climate change? Has Trump succeeded in pushing do-gooder enviros to the side, or in making the world safe again for coal? Not quite. The NBC/WSJ poll has the largest share of the American public ever saying that climate change is real and action needs to be taken: 67 percent. Since Trumps election, support has fallen to just 28 percent in the Quinnipiac poll on the question of whether Trump should remove specific regulations intended to combat climate change (a meager 33 percent even among white noncollege voters).

Taxes? Americans never like the idea of lowering taxes on the wealthy. Since Trumps election, they hate it even more. Now its down to just 18 percent in favor in the Quinnipiac poll, with a massive 77 percent opposed.

And theres more. Gallup reports that Americans views about the moral acceptability of a wide range of practices are now more liberal than theyve ever been. This includes birth control, divorce, premarital sex, and the death penalty. Same-sex marriage has become so uncontroversial that pollsters hardly bother to ask about it anymore.

None of this is to sugarcoat the current facts on the ground Trump in the White House and the Republicans in control of Congress and most states. But that owes much more to the peculiar nature of the Electoral College, gerrymandering, structural GOP advantages in Congress, and poor Democratic strategy than to the actual views of the American public.

I hate to break it to Americas liberals, but as Ive argued before there are considerable grounds for optimism about the American public and, by extension, the fate of the country. Now you may return to your regularly scheduled panic.

Ruy Teixeiras new book is The Optimistic Leftist: Why the 21st Century Will Be Better Than You Think. He is a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress.

The Big Idea is Voxs home for smart discussion of the most important issues and ideas in politics, science, and culture typically by outside contributors. If you have an idea for a piece, pitch us at thebigidea@vox.com.

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What right-wing populism? Polls reveal that it's liberalism that's surging. - Vox