Threat of automation: Robotics and artificial intelligence to reduce job opportunities at top banks – Economic Times

In a conventional bank branch, a clerk seated next to the cash dispensing teller was a sought after banker because he used to update the pass book of the account holder after the cash withdrawal or a deposit. That job has almost vanished in the past decade with few account holders getting a pass book.

Coming years would see even the position of the teller, who is fast being replaced by sophisticated automated teller machines, and much more jobs going away as computing makes it possible to do more with less heads at the branches.

The banking industry which was among the big job creators along with the information technology industry in the past two decades is at an inflection point where technology is enhancing efficiency by doing more and at a faster pace than what humans could do.

Traditional jobs like passbook updating, cash deposit, verification of know-your-customer details, salary uploads are also going digital increasing job redundancies. The likes of Axis Bank, ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank are pushing the boundaries of technology by implementing robotics to centralise operations and for quicker turnarounds in things like loan processing and selling financial products to customers. This is reducing the need for a manual worker at the back end.

Look at the quintessential cheque book request, today 75 per cent of that happens digitally. Earlier, these customers used to walk into our branches, says Rajiv Anand, head retail banking at Axis Bank. There is increased automation within branches. We have more than 1,500 cash deposit machines, so why do I need a teller?.

A salary upload that we do monthly today there are 5 people who are doing the job and this will get automated. The linearity at the back end that as transactions go up the number of people should also go up has been broken.

The Indian banking industry has been witnessing a slow transition from people-driven to machines controlled in the past few years. The technological development, which has made banking easier, has also led to a slowdown in the hiring of staff at banks. Although there have been hirings, the nature of skill sets required is changing with a lot more focus on the front end talent.

Low-end back office jobs like data entries will no longer be required in the next three years. The rate of growth of new jobs in the banking sector will definitely come down, said Saurabh Tripathi, senior partner and director at BCG.

Low-skill workers do not have a bright future. They will have to reskill or perish. A sign of things to come is being witnessed at HDFC Bank, the countrys most valuable lender and the most expensive one among top lenders. The bank has not only been slowing branch expansion and hirings, it has also been reducing overall headcount even as it remains the gold standard of Indian banking.

HDFC saw staff strength fall for two-quarters in a row. The employee count fell by 6,096, or 7 per cent, to 84,325 in the quarter ended March 2017 from 90,421 in December 2016. At the same time, it has expanded its network to 4,715 branches, from 4,520 a year earlier, ATMs to 12,260 from 12,000.

It is not that we are asking people to resign and go away, says Paresh Sukthankar, DMD, HDFC Bank. Now we are saying while we will still add in certain areas as required, if based on productivity improvements you have people who are not gainfully employed in one particular function, you redeploy them in other areas. But after doing all that if we dont have the need for a certain number of people, we will not hire as many.

But the decline in bank jobs started even before the digital wave hit the banking industry. Indian banks employed nearly 13 lakh people at the end of March 2015, out of which state-run banks alone employ nearly 8.6 lakh people, while private sector banks employed 3.2 lakh people, a paltry growth of 3 per cent over March 2014, data from RBI shows.

Analytics and artificial intelligence are already being used by banks to do jobs once considered sacred, like underwriting loans. What this means is that human skills, which were considered imperative for basic banking not long ago, may not be required. We are now helping banks to underwrite on the spot, which means the underwriting skills as we know it may not be needed, said Piyush Singh, MD, financial services (Asia-Pacific), Accenture.

India is experiencing what banks in advanced countries have been doing for the past many years. Barclays chairman Anthony Jenkins warned of the Uber moment for banks a few years ago, and that is coming true.

The number of bank branches in the United States will shrink by as much as 20 per cent in five years and that could save as much as $8.3 billion annually if it trimmed the number of branches and downsized the average bank branch from 5,000 to 3,000 square feet, says Jones Lang Lasalle, a real estate consultant.

Citigroup has forecast that nearly a third of the jobs in the banking industry could be lost in the decade between 2015 and 2025. The future of branches in banking is about focusing on advisory and consultation rather than transactions, writes Jonathan Larsen, global head of retail and mortgages at Citi.

The return on having a physical network is diminishing. Branches and associated staff costs make up for about 65 per cent of the total retail cost base of a larger bank and a lot of these costs can be removed via automation.

Changing face While Indian banks havent started trimming the bank branches, the growth in the number and the size of branches has definitely come down. The growth rate of branch network in India halved at the end of 2016 to 5 per cent from 2010.

Likewise, ATM additions which grew at 9 per cent in 2016, was growing at over 40 per cent in 2010. Thanks to payments systems, banks do not need people at branches. The number of transactions on a digital network at the end of March 2016 was over 15.1 billion, up from 11.1 billion in the same period last year. That is essentially the number of cheques not issued.

Automation does not necessarily mean that there would no more be banking jobs. But they will be at a different level. Banks need to approach customers and educate them about financial products that are in the market.

Footprint increase is not the number one priority in absolute branch strength. Increasing reach and distribution is our priority. Reach and distribution we will increase through digital and more feet on street and relationship managers of the bank, said Shyam Srinivasan, CEO at Federal Bank.

New banks Also, the entry of new banks like small finance banks like Au Financiers, Equitas or Ujjivan would require an army of people as they expand to rural areas. Boots on the ground may be the mantra for these new banks which will have to marry technology with the human touch.

Automation for us means improving productivity to ensure my employees can do more. 50 per cent of our loans has to be with a ticket size of less than `25 lakh and 75 per cent priority sector. Our customers need hand-holding right from the application to the payment stage and we need people on the floor for that, said Sanjay Agarwal, MD at AU Financiers, which commenced small bank operations earlier this year.

AU Financiers plans to hire 4,000 people in the next six months. Total hiring in the next two to three years will be 10,000, Agarwal said. Then there is the microfinance turned-universal bank Bandhan, which plans to increase its workforce to 30,000 by March 2018 from 24,000 at present.

All our people (customers) are still not comfortable with digital banking. They need to see branches and go and ask questions. It will take time for digital banking to fully take shape. More is needed to be done, said Chandra Shekhar Ghosh, founder and MD at microfinance turned-universal bank Bandhan, which has 68 per cent of its branches in rural areas.

Just like the automobile industry, the banking industry will thrive and employ millions. But the way it would happen has been transformed. I think banks will continue to open branches and distribution networks, says Axis Anand. Financial services will continue to create jobs particularly at the front end but the rate of growth of that job creation will slow down, that is for sure.

Read the original:

Threat of automation: Robotics and artificial intelligence to reduce job opportunities at top banks - Economic Times