The best path to long-term stability is encouraging economic reform and growth in the DPRK.
By Joseph Yi, Byeonggeun Heo, and Junbeom Bah, The Diplomat
On March 6, 2017, the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (DPRK) launched four ballistic missiles, three of which landed 200 miles off Japans coastline. DPRK supreme leader Kim Jong-un promises that his country will eventually have nuclear-armed, intercontinental ballistic missiles that can reach the continental United States. The Trump Administration is currently reviewing its policy options,including preemptive strikes or total isolation of the North Korean economy.
A hard-line strategy is not likely to persuadethe DPRK regime to give up its missiles and nuclear weapons. Nor will it garner the support of the South Korean public, which is poised to elect a centrist or center-left president in the May 9 election. Most importantly, preemptive strikes or enhanced sanctions will delay ongoing economic reforms in North Korea andset back its integration into the global economy. Internal economic and social change is ultimately the only path to moderate the DPRK regime and its policies.
Containment and Engagement
Since 2012, Kim Jong-un has pursued a dual strategy of nuclear deterrence and Chinese-style economic reforms. The prudent response of liberal democracies is to contain the military ambitions of North Korea and to support the belated integration of its citizens into global society. For instance, the United States and its Asian allies could continue their strategy of overt (e.g., deploying the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system in South Korea) and covert (e.g., cyber warfare) actions against the DPRK military. At the same time, we should endorse the regimes move to a decentralized, market economy, such as increasing the legal autonomy of business enterprises and allowing farmers private plots or pojon(vegetable gardens).
Kim is belatedly recognizing and legalizing the peoples de facto transition to a market economy, a process already started during his father Kim Jong-ils regime. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the devastating famine in the 1990s destroyed much of the top-down, governmental distribution system. To survive, ordinary North Koreans created non-governmental markets for goods and services, at first rudimentary and illegal, later more sophisticated and (at least partially) legal (Andrei Lankov analyzes the transformation in Real North Korea;Felix Abt offers a first-hand account in Capitalist in North Korea). With economic recovery and growth, the DPRK has developed an expansive transportation system and a nationwide cellular network (with more than 3 million subscribers), both of which further the flow of goods and information.
North Koreans are increasingly aware and desiring of goods, information, and personal contacts from the outside world. Economic reforms offer legal space for foreign tourists, volunteers, businesses, and NGOs to contribute to social and economic development and to interact with ordinary citizens. Jamie Kim (director of Reah International) has documented about 4,000 activities carried out by 500 Western organizations (governmental, nongovernmental, and private) from 2005 to 2012. Significantly, these organizations included about 50, mostly small-staffed and U.S.-registered, faith-based organizations (FBOs), such as the American Friends Service Committee, the Eugene Bell Foundation, Christian Friends of Korea, and Global Resource Services.
Since 2012, many secular organizations have left North Korea, because of international sanctions and the reduction of Western government funding. Faith-based organizations receive donations and voluntary labor from Christians, and are relatively immune to the vagaries of government funding. Probably the most famous, faith-based operation is the Pyongyang University of Science and Technology, established in 2010. North Koreas first private university, PUST is largely funded by evangelical Christians in South Korea, the United States,and other countries. About 60 foreign, Christian volunteer professors instruct 500 undergraduate and 90 graduate students, who represent the academic elite of North Korea. A few students receive scholarships to study abroad in prestigious universities (e.g., University of Westminster and Cambridge University in Britainand Uppsala University in Sweden). PUST has received much media coverage and controversy, including a BBC documentary. Former PUST instructors, such as Helen Kibby from New Zealand, have also uploaded their own YouTube videos.
One long-term PUST professor writes:
Although foreign faculty and North Korean students are both pretty guarded in general, their interaction is changing year by year. After PUST was opened in 2010, students didnt talk much with professors outside their classrooms for a while. As time went by, they could build up trust with each other to some degree and the campus atmosphere got to warm up. That has helped them become more open to have closer conversations. Dynamic interaction between faculty and students happens during different contexts: class, lab and research, advising students, thesis defense, events and contests, sports day, eating lunch and dinner together at the cafeteria, etc. Nevertheless there are always certain boundaries that they both are aware of to respect and protect each other overall.
The numbers and activities of FBOs have increased in recent years, especially entrepreneurs who combine nonprofit and business activities. Gabe* (from the United States)organized North Koreas first surfing camp in partnership with the state-run Korea International Travel Company and an American FBO, Surfing the Nations. The initial camp, which ran from July 28 to August 6, 2014, attracted 19 surfers, instructors, and safety personnel from the United States, Sweden, Switzerland, Denmark, and Australia to North Koreas east coast. The summer camp offers surfing and skating lessons and other cultural exchanges between local residents and foreign visitors. On August 2016, celebrity British vlogger Louis John Cole posted a YouTube videoabout the surfing camp, which attracted more than 700,000 views and global media controversy.
Less publicized are the hundreds of small groups that legally visit North Korea through tourism companies. Kevin* (from the United States) participated in a 16-person tour group, which planted 2,000 trees and conversed with students in English at a foreign language middle school in the Rason region near the Chinese border. Kevin was one of around 100,000 annual tourists to North Korea, the vast majority of whom are Chinese. Kevin, Helen, Gabe, and Louis all reported a deep longing among North Koreans, especially the younger and more-educated, to better themselves and to engage the outside world. They wish to inspire millions more international tourists, volunteers, and businesses to come to North Korea, develop its economy, and befriend its people.
A large academic literature finds a positive, symbiotic relationship between economic development and liberal democracy. In particular, the growth of a stable, middle class generates powerful demands for the rule of law (not of arbitrary rulers), more popular participation in politics, and resistance to military adventurism. Other literature stresses the moderating effects of interpersonal contact. People get to know each other as individuals, rather than as representatives of disliked groups; these personal relations of trust and friendship erode ones prejudices.
Any interaction between North Koreans and the outside world that increases information exchange and economic opportunity should be welcomed: these are the seeds that with time and nurturing sprout into stout trees of liberty. Andrei Lankov reminds that the transformation of the former Soviet Union ultimately came from within, from citizens who were exposed first-hand to the West. Notably, two Soviet students selected by Moscow for the first study abroad in the United States in 1958 ultimately became the top leaders of the perestroika reforms in the late 1980s. Both men later said that their one-year experiences in the United States changed the way they saw the world.
Let a Million Deals Bloom: The Imperfect Pakistan Model
The Trump administration should remember the enduring lure and power of liberty and the hunger of ordinary people to better their lives. As the administration pursues a big deal to contain the DPRKs nuclear weapons, it should also support opportunities for ordinary North Koreans to trade, attend school, sell their produce, make foreign friends, and generally negotiate a million other deals to better their lives.
American hard-liners claim that enhanced sanctions forced Iran to the negotiating table and will do the same to North Korea. Iran is not a useful analogy. Iran possesses the most powerful military in the Middle East (outside of Israel) and lacks a credible military threat from any its immediate neighbors (especially after the United States conveniently ousted Iraqs Saddam Hussein). Its regime survival does not depend on a nuclear deterrent. In contrast, the DPRK regime feels incredibly vulnerable from the United States and its Asian allies and absolutely believes that obtaining nuclear weapons is its only means of survival.
A better analogy for American policymakers is Pakistan, another historically poor, historically authoritarian country that believes nuclear weapons are necessary protection against more powerful neighbors (notably India). In fact, Indias 1971 military intervention in Pakistans civil war (which helped Pakistans eastern state become independent Bangladesh) spurred Pakistani Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto to start the nuclear weapons program as a matter of national survival. Washington has yet to finalize a deal to satisfactorily containIslamabads nuclear and missile program, or even secure such materialsfrom potential proliferation or theft. Still, the United States maintains trade and diplomatic dialogue with Pakistan, which has contributed to its stability and an expanding middle class. Growing the middle classes of Pakistan and its neighbor India are ultimately the most effective path to moderate each countrys politics and to limit the risks of military adventurism, state failure, and terrorism. Likewise, we advise the Trump Administration to engage in targeted or smart sanctions that would contain DPRK nuclear and missile programs, but not the socio-economic aspirations of its emerging, entrepreneurial middle class.
Talking With DPRK Refugees and American NGOs
As the Trump administration reviews its policy options, it would benefit from credible, first-hand information about what is actually happening inside the DPRK. The administration should be cautious about the testimonies of celebrity defectors who receive financial incentives to depict the DPRK regime in a negative, sensational manner (for example, storiesofChristians being murdered withmolten iron in political prison camps). More credible and objective testimonials come from ordinary North Korean refugees (most of whom left the DPRK for better economic opportunities, not because of political dissent) and Americans who have extensively worked in the DPRK.
American NGOs are among the most active contributors to the peaceful development of North Korea. They have witnessed tremendous changes in the past two decades and expect even more in upcoming decades, culminating with the peaceful unification of North and South Korea. They should share their experiences with their fellow Americans and assist the Trump administration to exercise wise, prudent judgment on behalf of the people of North Korea.
Joseph Yi is associate professor of political science at Hanyang University. Byeonggeun Heo is a student at Hanyang University. Junbeom Bahk graduated from Vanderbilt University. This article was supported by the Hanyang University Research Fund.
Source:http://thediplomat.com/2017/04/the-case-for-engaging-north-korea/
Here is the original post:
A case for engaging North Korea - AmeriForce Publishing, Inc.
- Classic Maya collapse - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia [Last Updated On: June 16th, 2016] [Originally Added On: June 16th, 2016]
- Socio-Economic Collapse | Prometheism.net [Last Updated On: June 17th, 2016] [Originally Added On: June 17th, 2016]
- Bronze Age collapse - Simple English Wikipedia, the free ... [Last Updated On: June 19th, 2016] [Originally Added On: June 19th, 2016]
- Natural Disasters and Socio-Economic Collapse [Last Updated On: June 28th, 2016] [Originally Added On: June 28th, 2016]
- Socio-Economic Collapse in the Congo: Causes and Solutions [Last Updated On: July 25th, 2016] [Originally Added On: July 25th, 2016]
- What Explains the Collapse of the USSR? [Last Updated On: August 23rd, 2016] [Originally Added On: August 23rd, 2016]
- 10 Steps to Prepare for Americas Economic Collapse [Last Updated On: November 23rd, 2016] [Originally Added On: November 23rd, 2016]
- Modern Survival Manual Surviving the Economic Collapse [Last Updated On: December 4th, 2016] [Originally Added On: December 4th, 2016]
- Socio-economic Collapse | Futurist Transhuman News Blog [Last Updated On: December 23rd, 2016] [Originally Added On: December 23rd, 2016]
- Prout Globe [Last Updated On: January 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: January 7th, 2017]
- Where Should the External Priorities of the Visegrd Lie? - Visegrad Insight [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2017]
- New Texts Out Now: Helga Tawil-Souri and Dina Matar, eds. Gaza as Metaphor - Jadaliyya [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2017]
- PH gov't, communists urged to pursue talks even without ceasefire - Inquirer.net [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2017]
- Kazakhstan Going Into Soft Power Overdrive - EurasiaNet [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2017]
- Economic Crash 2017 and How the Next Financial Crisis Could Be Worse Than 2008 - Lombardi Letter [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2017]
- Mass incarceration and the perfect socio-economic storm - OUPblog (blog) [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2017]
- Why 'financial inclusion' may be the wrong terminology - NewsDay [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- Celebrating Black History: Detroit Techno icons - Mixmag [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- 'Conspiracy' in peace talks collapse seen - Inquirer.net [Last Updated On: February 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 9th, 2017]
- Zuma's interventions will deal with white monopoly capital - Office of ANC Chief Whip - Politicsweb [Last Updated On: February 12th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 12th, 2017]
- $294 million secured for Kariba dam rehabilitation - Bulawayo24 News (press release) (blog) [Last Updated On: February 15th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 15th, 2017]
- SA needs a law addressing land restitution without compensation - Nkwinti - News24 [Last Updated On: February 15th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 15th, 2017]
- Gambia: The New Gambia Are We Ready For Business - Freedom Newspaper [Last Updated On: February 15th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 15th, 2017]
- Financial Black Swans Could Rock 2017 Stock Market Forecast - Lombardi Letter [Last Updated On: February 17th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 17th, 2017]
- Zimbabwe: A Crisis Unfolding - Zimbabwe | ReliefWeb - ReliefWeb [Last Updated On: February 17th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 17th, 2017]
- 'Colliery to start producing coke in April' - Chronicle [Last Updated On: February 18th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 18th, 2017]
- Who We Play For saving lives through athlete heart screenings - Tallahassee.com [Last Updated On: February 19th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 19th, 2017]
- Dailytimes | Terrorist resurgence - Daily Times [Last Updated On: February 19th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 19th, 2017]
- Financial Black Swans Could Rock 2017 Stock Market ... [Last Updated On: February 25th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 25th, 2017]
- Facing tragedy with courage - The News International [Last Updated On: February 28th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 28th, 2017]
- Skilled workers key to the success of any construction project - Daily Nation [Last Updated On: March 1st, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 1st, 2017]
- The Upcoming Economic Recession in 2017 Has Already Begun - Lombardi Letter [Last Updated On: March 2nd, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 2nd, 2017]
- Rethinking Nonviolent Resistance In The Face Of Right-Wing Populism - Huffington Post [Last Updated On: March 4th, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 4th, 2017]
- First ceiling collapse at Charlotte Maxeke in January already, claim staff - News24 [Last Updated On: March 4th, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 4th, 2017]
- Rethinking Nonviolent Resistance in the Face of Right-Wing Populism - The Wire [Last Updated On: March 4th, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 4th, 2017]
- Vladimir Putin Isn't a Supervillain - Yahoo News [Last Updated On: March 4th, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 4th, 2017]
- Historical Materialism Versus Historical Conceptualism - Dissident Voice [Last Updated On: March 5th, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 5th, 2017]
- Sierra Leone News: STATUTORY MEETINGS OF WAMZ AND WAMA END IN FREETOWN WITH RENEWED ... - Awoko [Last Updated On: March 6th, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 6th, 2017]
- Nigeria: Sokoto Govt and World Bank pledges $28.8million for rehabilitation of collapsed Dam - Ecofin Agency: Economic information from Africa [Last Updated On: March 8th, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 8th, 2017]
- World Bank, Sokoto Govt commit N9b for rebuilding of collapsed ... - THISDAY Newspapers [Last Updated On: March 8th, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 8th, 2017]
- Terms for states as N500b Paris Club refund is ready - The Nation Newspaper [Last Updated On: March 12th, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 12th, 2017]
- Obasanjo urges Buhari to expose treasury looters News The ... - Guardian [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2017]
- Fragmentation in the Netherlands | RealClearWorld - RealClearWorld [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2017]
- North Korea: A Humanitarian Crisis Decades In The Making - Huffington Post Canada [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2017]
- Yemen: IPC Analysis - Summary of Findings, Acute Food Insecurity Current Situation Overview | March - July 2017 [EN ... - Reliefweb [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2017]
- 2018 election: The last chance or lost chance - New Zimbabwe.com [Last Updated On: March 19th, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 19th, 2017]
- Statement of IGAD Council of Ministers' consultation on the current situation in the region - Reliefweb [Last Updated On: March 19th, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 19th, 2017]
- 10 Facts to Know About the Stock Market Crash of 1929 - Lombardi Letter [Last Updated On: March 19th, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 19th, 2017]
- Advani, Modi and...Yogi? Why Adityanath's appointment is a political masterstroke by Modi - Economic Times [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2017]
- Implement new fish farm system urgently - fishing communities appeal - Graphic Online [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2017]
- How to stop the collapse of the Dutch left - EUobserver [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2017]
- Cadre deployment does little for the country's future or the wine ... - Daily Maverick [Last Updated On: March 23rd, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 23rd, 2017]
- Turning Maphisa into an agro-processing hub - Chronicle [Last Updated On: March 23rd, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 23rd, 2017]
- What's Left? - London Review of Books (subscription) [Last Updated On: March 23rd, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 23rd, 2017]
- Jamaica's future choked by cancer of corruption - Jamaica Observer [Last Updated On: March 27th, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 27th, 2017]
- A toxic combination of declining social status, poor health and failed relationships is being blamed - Washington Times [Last Updated On: March 27th, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 27th, 2017]
- Venezuela, Constitutional Dictatorship Or Drug-Gang Regime? - Worldcrunch [Last Updated On: March 29th, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 29th, 2017]
- Keys tackle topical consumer concerns - Manx Radio [Last Updated On: March 29th, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 29th, 2017]
- 'Politics of interests, allegations creating instability' - The News International [Last Updated On: March 29th, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 29th, 2017]
- Zuma cabinet reshuffle: what people are saying - GroundUp [Last Updated On: March 31st, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 31st, 2017]
- Debunked: The myth of the Golden Age of the Baltics in the Soviet Union - UpNorth [Last Updated On: March 31st, 2017] [Originally Added On: March 31st, 2017]
- Time for a rebirth of Zimbabwean politics - Bulawayo24 News (press release) (blog) [Last Updated On: April 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: April 7th, 2017]
- Time for a rebirth of Zimbabwean politics - New Zimbabwe.com [Last Updated On: April 10th, 2017] [Originally Added On: April 10th, 2017]
- Time for a rebirth of Zimbabwean politics The Zimbabwe Mail - The Zimbabwe Mail [Last Updated On: April 12th, 2017] [Originally Added On: April 12th, 2017]
- Poland For Beginners: 'Some political reforms bring different results ... - PoliticalCritique.org [Last Updated On: April 12th, 2017] [Originally Added On: April 12th, 2017]
- Ramboll hired to monitor cleanup of Bento Rodrigues dam disaster - Consultancy.uk [Last Updated On: April 12th, 2017] [Originally Added On: April 12th, 2017]
- End of Transition: Armenia 25 Years On, Now What? - Armenian Weekly [Last Updated On: April 14th, 2017] [Originally Added On: April 14th, 2017]
- Trump Administration Must Act To Address The Plight of Christians In The Middle East - Huffington Post [Last Updated On: April 15th, 2017] [Originally Added On: April 15th, 2017]
- Kazakhstan Could Become Qazaqstan as it Eyes New Alphabet - Newsweek [Last Updated On: April 15th, 2017] [Originally Added On: April 15th, 2017]
- Church happenings, Easter Week events - Allied News [Last Updated On: April 15th, 2017] [Originally Added On: April 15th, 2017]
- Govt panics as wheels come off - DailyNews Live - DailyNews [Last Updated On: April 15th, 2017] [Originally Added On: April 15th, 2017]
- Mares: Drivers Of Economic Leveling - Vermont Public Radio [Last Updated On: April 19th, 2017] [Originally Added On: April 19th, 2017]
- Cornered govt slammed for ambush economic policies - New Zimbabwe.com [Last Updated On: April 21st, 2017] [Originally Added On: April 21st, 2017]
- The five 'infections' of the social democratic 'family' in the Western Balkans - Open Democracy [Last Updated On: April 21st, 2017] [Originally Added On: April 21st, 2017]
- Global community marks International Day for Street Children - BusinessGhana [Last Updated On: April 21st, 2017] [Originally Added On: April 21st, 2017]
- Seen & Heard: Bortolami Gallery Opening Date - Tribeca Citizen [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2017] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2017]
- Trump and the Yemeni Quagmire - International Policy Digest (press release) (blog) [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2017] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2017]
- Of Critics and Human Development - THISDAY Newspapers [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2017] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2017]
- Trump And The Yemeni Quagmire - Huffington Post [Last Updated On: April 28th, 2017] [Originally Added On: April 28th, 2017]
- GAC slams GF for U-turn on river nationalisation, coal issue - Oherald [Last Updated On: May 4th, 2017] [Originally Added On: May 4th, 2017]