The potential for progress at the US-China meeting – The Boston Globe

By Richard N. Haass April 05, 2017

This weeks meeting in Mar-a-Lago between Chinese President Xi Jin-ping and PresidentDonald Trump is arguably the most important foreign policy gathering of the still-young Trump administration. The trajectory of the next four years will hinge in no small part on whether the two countries can avoid a trade or any other kind of war; in the longer run, it will be one sort of 21st century if the United States and China collaborate on regional and global challenges and a very different one if the two cannot work together or, worse, come to blows.

There is a school of thought that predicts this relationship will become adversarial. Named for the great historian of the Peloponnesian War, the Thucydides Trap holds that cold or hot war is all but inevitable between the United States, the existing great power of this era, and a rising China. But such a conclusion is unwarranted; unlike Russia, China has a broad-based economy and is integrated into the global economy. China has good reason not to act recklessly abroad lest it place its economic interests (and its internal political stability) at risk.

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Indeed, so far the two countries have proved the historical pessimists wrong. The two countries, sworn foes for the first two decades of the Cold War, shared an even greater dislike of the Soviet Union. It was the great power version of the adage that enemy of my enemy is my friend. Richard Nixon and his national security adviser Henry Kissinger understood the depth of the Sino-Soviet split and made the difficult choices required for the United States and Mainland China to move closer together in a manner that weakened the strategic position of the Soviet Union.

Impressively, the US-China relationship survived the demise of that common enemy some 25 years ago. The relationship evolved from one of shared opposition to one of shared interests, above all economic. Trade and investment took off. China emerged as a major destination for American technology exports; America became a major market for every kind of Chinese manufacturing.

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In recent years, though, this relationship has shown signs of wearing thin. Economic ties have become as much a source of friction as ballast. Various American administrations have been frustrated with what is viewed as limited access to Chinas market for American exporters. Other concerns include allegations China has regularly stolen American intellectual property, that it has at times weakened its currency to advantage its exports, and that it is subsidizing Chinese firms on a scale that makes it difficult for private US companies to compete. China for its part denies these claims and is frustrated that the US government will not allow it to import a number of items with advanced technologies.

The Chinese ambassador, Cui Tiankai, has established a busy back channel to Trumps son-in-law, Jared Kushner.

Geopolitical frustration is likewise increasing. The United State believes that China is not doing all it can and should to reign in North Koreas nuclear and missile programs. US officials are also unhappy with Chinas military buildup in the South China Sea, seeing it as threatening the right of transit. China meanwhile regularly voices its displeasure with continued US arms sales to Taiwan as well as with the deployment of a missile defense system in South Korea that many in China claim is aimed at their missiles more than those of North Korea.

A days worth of meetings in Mar-a-Lago will not resolve these issues. But there is potential for progress. Chinas leader comes to Florida focused on consolidating political power back home amid a slowing economy. He is not looking for a crisis with Chinas main economic partner. This could dovetail well with one of Trumps main priorities, which is to show progress on the trade front, both in terms of gaining enhanced US access to the Chinese market and greater Chinese investment in the United States.

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When it comes to North Korea, China will argue for a negotiation that seeks first to freeze North Korean nuclear and missile programs. The US side might be attracted to such an outcome, but only if it were comprehensive and verifiable. The real question is whether China will use some of the leverage it denies it has but surely possesses with North Korea. It might, if only because it is not in its interests to have a conflict on the peninsula that disrupted the regions economy and resulted in a unified Korea in the American strategic orbit. At Mar-a-Lago, though, the most that can be expected is a discussion of the issue in which each side comes away with a better understanding of what the other side is prepared to do along with a commitment to continue high-level talks on an accelerated basis.

All of which raises a larger point. This meeting should not be viewed as a traditional summit judged by how many specific agreements or deliverables emerge. Rather, it is an opportunity for the new US president and his team, none of whom has much if any first-hand knowledge of China, to come away with a deeper understanding of that country and its leaders. The Chinese are anxious to come away with a better appreciation of this president who differs in many ways from his predecessors. If they can do this, avoid a crisis over trade, and establish a mechanism to deal with North Korea, Mar-a-Lago should be viewed as a success.

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The potential for progress at the US-China meeting - The Boston Globe