Rob LoCascio is the founder and CEO of LivePerson.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has a surprisingly naive take on the issue ofAI and robots replacing human jobs.
Mnuchin said that human obsolescence is not even on our radar screen 50-100 more years away and that hes not worried at all. For those of us in the tech industry, its clear his timescale is inaccurate and that, if thegovernment is complacent about AI, the country is setting itself up for an economic shock.
Theres been downward pressure on jobs since the Industrial Revolution due to leaps in productivity brought about by human ingenuity and lucky discoveries. This has accelerated since the 1980s with the mass adoption of computers, but the market has more or less kept up, creating new openings to fill the eradicated ones, albeit not in the same places (coastal cities have gained, Rust Belt areas have lost out).
However, we have a tsunami on the horizon: automation using AI. It will place intense downward pressure on employment, and threatens to catch a generation (really, three generations) off guard, with unemployment levels higher than the Great Depression.
Automation is going to leave millions of Americans un- or under-employed not in 50-100 more years, but within the next decade. As someone very familiar with one of the most-affected sectors, the customer service industry I invented web chat technology for customer service in the late 1990s, and have been in the space for more than 20 years I can already see the change happening, and the robots appearing, today.
From our data on large banks, telcos, retailers and so on, we can see that approximately 40-50 percent of tasks performed in customer care fall into a category that is highly susceptible to automation: routine processes like updating payment cards, addresses, passwords and other basic processes. More than 3 million people in the U.S. alone are employed in call centers, and its clear to me that the Fourth Industrial Revolution will displace a substantial number of U.S. workers in a far shorter time period than what Mnuchin is positing.
We need a new New Deal to tackle the consequences of automation. It should be big, aggressive and, unlike the first one under FDR, it should be preemptive. Without some kind of counterbalancing action, well see tens of millions of workers stranded, with curtailed employment prospects. This will kick off a hereditary shockwave of economic hardship that could be felt for generations.
We know the jobs that will be affected first, in addition to the 3+ million customer care agents I mentioned above, and they are very common ones that employ large swathes of the population: truck and taxi drivers, cashiers, security guards, retail clerks and a number of others. These people, who will suffer the most, are also the least aware of new advancements in AI and automation (in fact, they are the least likely to be tech savvy at all). Not only this, but they are highly likely to be in lower income brackets without the luxury of time to re-train while holding down their current job(s), and without the savings to invest in re-education.
More alarming still, our own research shows that 88 percent of Americans reported not being worried about losing their jobs even after being shown research from Oxford University predicting that 47 percent of U.S. jobs are vulnerable to automation. So we have potentially millions of unemployed Americans on our hands in the next two decades, with very few of them currently doing anything to prepare for a new occupation.
3D render of a robot trying to solve a wooden cube puzzle
A number of people in tech have begun to offer solutions to the looming automation tsunami. Bill Gates suggested we tax the robots in order to slow the progress of automation and re-direct money toward human-service jobs that require a level of empathy and compassion that artificial intelligence cannot yet offer. Massachusetts also floated an idea of taxing self-driving cars.
The problem with taxation is that it is a deterrent to deploying the technology and reaping the productivity gains, while only indirectly helping those who are sidelined by it. It could also be a nightmare to measure, and actually collect that tax.
Others, like Elon Musk, have suggested that a universal basic income is our best way forward to ensure even those who are left with no options for employment are still able to reasonably take care of themselves. Y Combinator also ran a basic income experiment in Oakland.
Im skeptical of this approach too, although its certainly true that social safety nets will need to be strengthened in the face of the shift to automation. UBI reduces the incentive to work, and risks stranding millions of people in a subsistence living trap, able to just about get by, but cut off from the opportunity for upward mobility, as this essay details well.
The first step should be to build up flood defenses against the tsunami. We already know which industries are most vulnerable. Focusing on those, the new New Deal should fund education and retraining programs that provide an opportunity for at-risk employees to learn new skills, geared toward those industries that will be around longer-term. The government could partner with major employers to advertise these training and education programs, and make sure staff are aware of them, as the number of open positions at those employers declines due to automation.
While initiatives like this almost always tend to over- or under-shoot, it will at least soften the pain of impact. Think of it as a stimulus program that incentivizes those individuals in need of job retraining and those organizations that proactively create new jobs. Past programs like Roosevelts New Deal and 2009s ARRA mitigated the worst of the impact of economic turbulence.
My second suggestion is an area where technologists can help. Create software platforms that rely upon human input and labor in areas where AI is less applicable: things like creativity, empathy and other uniquely human capabilities. Government could help with this. For example, it could offer co-investment to startups or companies that create platforms that use human labor to do uniquely human activities. (Usually, government investment in tech goes poorly, and inflates bubbles, but in this case, a pre-bubble that anticipates the great automation shift would actually soften the landing.)
We have seen that mass-production in industry has led to a re-evaluation of pre-industrial techniques artisanal goods, la Etsy, grew in prominence and value as people start to cherish the idiosyncratic and the hand-made. The same goes for agriculture, where organic farming and even home farming (in Brooklyn!) made a comeback as an alternative to mass-scale industrial farming. In both cases, tech platforms have helped make those older forms of production economically realistic by reducing distribution and access costs, even though the base cost of goods was higher.
I believe we will need platforms that take advantage of the glut of human labor that the great automation shift will create, and, specifically, we will need platforms that focus on tasks where AI has trouble, and where humans have the upper hand, such as design, creativity, empathy and judgment. Instead of sticking its head in the sand and pretending everything is fine, the government and Steven Mnuchin should focus in more detail on the disruption thats about to happen, and build a plan to address it.
Continue reading here:
We need a New Deal to address the economic risks of automation - TechCrunch
- Automation Personnel Services - Temporary Staffing ... [Last Updated On: March 25th, 2016] [Originally Added On: March 25th, 2016]
- Automation | Define Automation at Dictionary.com [Last Updated On: March 25th, 2016] [Originally Added On: March 25th, 2016]
- Automation | Definition of automation by Merriam-Webster [Last Updated On: March 25th, 2016] [Originally Added On: March 25th, 2016]
- Automation | The Car Company Tycoon Game [Last Updated On: March 25th, 2016] [Originally Added On: March 25th, 2016]
- Automation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia [Last Updated On: March 25th, 2016] [Originally Added On: March 25th, 2016]
- Automation - Cloud process & workflow automation | Microsoft ... [Last Updated On: June 29th, 2016] [Originally Added On: June 29th, 2016]
- Riverside Automation - Machine Controls [Last Updated On: July 3rd, 2016] [Originally Added On: July 3rd, 2016]
- Automation: The Car Company Tycoon Game Windows - Mod DB [Last Updated On: July 3rd, 2016] [Originally Added On: July 3rd, 2016]
- System Integration | Industrial Automation [Last Updated On: July 3rd, 2016] [Originally Added On: July 3rd, 2016]
- WinAutomation - Smart Macro Recorder, Web Automation ... [Last Updated On: July 3rd, 2016] [Originally Added On: July 3rd, 2016]
- Automation Solutions - Home [Last Updated On: July 3rd, 2016] [Originally Added On: July 3rd, 2016]
- The Automation Conference [Last Updated On: July 3rd, 2016] [Originally Added On: July 3rd, 2016]
- Rohtek Automation [Last Updated On: July 3rd, 2016] [Originally Added On: July 3rd, 2016]
- JL Automation, LLC | Home Automation, A/V Automation [Last Updated On: July 3rd, 2016] [Originally Added On: July 3rd, 2016]
- Four fundamentals of workplace automation | McKinsey & Company [Last Updated On: August 27th, 2016] [Originally Added On: August 27th, 2016]
- Leviton Security & Home Automation [Last Updated On: August 27th, 2016] [Originally Added On: August 27th, 2016]
- EVA Automation [Last Updated On: September 6th, 2016] [Originally Added On: September 6th, 2016]
- News | Automation | The Car Company Tycoon Game [Last Updated On: September 6th, 2016] [Originally Added On: September 6th, 2016]
- Automation - The Car Company Tycoon Game on Steam [Last Updated On: September 6th, 2016] [Originally Added On: September 6th, 2016]
- Test automation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia [Last Updated On: September 6th, 2016] [Originally Added On: September 6th, 2016]
- Job Seekers - Automation Personnel Services [Last Updated On: October 8th, 2016] [Originally Added On: October 8th, 2016]
- Custom Automation & Machine Design | Automation GT [Last Updated On: October 31st, 2016] [Originally Added On: October 31st, 2016]
- iAutomation [Last Updated On: October 31st, 2016] [Originally Added On: October 31st, 2016]
- Test automation - Wikipedia [Last Updated On: November 16th, 2016] [Originally Added On: November 16th, 2016]
- Automation - Official Site [Last Updated On: November 19th, 2016] [Originally Added On: November 19th, 2016]
- Beckhoff Automation - Wikipedia [Last Updated On: November 21st, 2016] [Originally Added On: November 21st, 2016]
- Automation - Security Hyperstore [Last Updated On: November 21st, 2016] [Originally Added On: November 21st, 2016]
- IT Automation - BMC [Last Updated On: November 29th, 2016] [Originally Added On: November 29th, 2016]
- ID Automation [Last Updated On: November 29th, 2016] [Originally Added On: November 29th, 2016]
- The Best Home Automation Systems of 2016 | Top Ten Reviews [Last Updated On: December 24th, 2016] [Originally Added On: December 24th, 2016]
- What is Home Automation? | Home Automation Systems [Last Updated On: December 24th, 2016] [Originally Added On: December 24th, 2016]
- Beyond Automation - hbr.org [Last Updated On: December 25th, 2016] [Originally Added On: December 25th, 2016]
- Build automation - Wikipedia [Last Updated On: December 26th, 2016] [Originally Added On: December 26th, 2016]
- Home automation - Wikipedia [Last Updated On: January 10th, 2017] [Originally Added On: January 10th, 2017]
- Automation | Food Engineering [Last Updated On: January 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: January 13th, 2017]
- Home Automation - Enerwave Home Automation [Last Updated On: January 14th, 2017] [Originally Added On: January 14th, 2017]
- Automation - DESHAZO [Last Updated On: January 14th, 2017] [Originally Added On: January 14th, 2017]
- Robots, Automation, EOAT, Grippers, Conveyors, Guarding [Last Updated On: January 26th, 2017] [Originally Added On: January 26th, 2017]
- Werner Electric | Automation [Last Updated On: January 28th, 2017] [Originally Added On: January 28th, 2017]
- Automationtechies | Automation Engineering Recruiting [Last Updated On: January 28th, 2017] [Originally Added On: January 28th, 2017]
- Automation - Mazak Corporation [Last Updated On: January 28th, 2017] [Originally Added On: January 28th, 2017]
- Automation | Technologies | Systems | Integrator ... [Last Updated On: January 28th, 2017] [Originally Added On: January 28th, 2017]
- Test Automation Services for Development of Regression ... [Last Updated On: January 28th, 2017] [Originally Added On: January 28th, 2017]
- Carlo Gavazzi Automation Components [Last Updated On: January 30th, 2017] [Originally Added On: January 30th, 2017]
- UI Automation Overview - msdn.microsoft.com [Last Updated On: February 5th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 5th, 2017]
- New telecom transformation goals require service automation - TechTarget [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2017]
- Global Hazardous Waste Handling Automation Market: By Products ... - Business Wire (press release) [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2017]
- 2M Automation wins IoT support from Schneider - Electronics EETimes (registration) [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2017]
- Futures Shaped by Automation and Catastrophe: Peter Frase on Capitalism's Endgame - Truth-Out [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2017]
- Automation expected to displace insurance underwriters, real estate brokers - CIO Dive [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2017]
- Automation, robots could replace 250000 public sector workers in the next 15 years - Computer Business Review [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2017]
- Design Automation Conference - Business Wire (press release) [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2017]
- The Perks Of Automation And The Risks: Why To Think Twice About Getting Into That Driverless Uber - Forbes [Last Updated On: February 6th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 6th, 2017]
- Lib Dems Should Embrace Automation of the Workforce - Liberal Democrat Voice [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- Voices Reinventing enterprise finance by overhauling AP automation - Accounting Today [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- How Accountants Can Use Automation Their Advantage - Accountingweb.com (blog) [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- DFLabs Launches the First Security Automation and Orchestration Platform based Upon Supervised Active Intelligence - Business Wire (press release) [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- QAD Automation Solutions is Honda Approved - Yahoo Finance [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- VIDEO: Going Big on Automation in a Small Footprint Facility - ENGINEERING.com [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- Building a better model of human-automation interaction - Phys.Org [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- AlixPartners examines automation in manufacturing and logistics management - Logistics Management [Last Updated On: February 7th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 7th, 2017]
- Report: Test automation is increasing - SD Times - SDTimes.com [Last Updated On: February 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 9th, 2017]
- Automation is the unavoidable future of the economy - The Daily Cougar [Last Updated On: February 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 9th, 2017]
- GM's Cruise Automation Is Testing An App to Order Self-Driving ... - Fortune [Last Updated On: February 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 9th, 2017]
- Speeders beware: Legislation would allow automation crackdown ... - SFGate [Last Updated On: February 9th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 9th, 2017]
- Orbita Ingenieria: New Age Terminal Automation - Port Technology International [Last Updated On: February 10th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 10th, 2017]
- A Sharper Focus on the Edge - Automation World [Last Updated On: February 10th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 10th, 2017]
- Rockwell Automation Surged 10% in January as Growth Picked Up Steam - Motley Fool [Last Updated On: February 10th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 10th, 2017]
- Most people are optimistic about workplace automation, social data suggests - ZDNet [Last Updated On: February 10th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 10th, 2017]
- Improving Behavior Through Automation of Vehicle Systems - School Transportation News (blog) [Last Updated On: February 11th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 11th, 2017]
- 'We employ insane levels of automation' Kris Canekeratne - Times of India [Last Updated On: February 11th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 11th, 2017]
- Why Don't We See More Automation in Federal Networks? - Nextgov [Last Updated On: February 11th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 11th, 2017]
- Technobabble: Automation and the modern worker - CIO Dive [Last Updated On: February 11th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 11th, 2017]
- Readers Write (Feb. 12): The moose population; jobs, start-ups and automation; diversity in the funny pages - Minneapolis Star Tribune [Last Updated On: February 12th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 12th, 2017]
- Automation Nightmare: Philosopher Warns We Are Creating a World Without Consciousness - Big Think [Last Updated On: February 12th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 12th, 2017]
- Automation can replace bureaucrats and save taxpayers money - Hot Air [Last Updated On: February 12th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 12th, 2017]
- Automation can revitalize the US workforce - Fox News [Last Updated On: February 12th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 12th, 2017]
- TigerStop hopes to ride automation to new heights - The Columbian [Last Updated On: February 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 13th, 2017]
- Hexadite Unveils Custom Playbooks Following One Millionth Automated Cybersecurity Investigation - Yahoo Finance [Last Updated On: February 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 13th, 2017]
- NEC updates postal automation system for Hongkong Post - ETCIO.com [Last Updated On: February 13th, 2017] [Originally Added On: February 13th, 2017]