Futurist believes dairy has a bright future – Lancaster Farming

LANCASTER, Pa. Dr. Lowell Catlett spent an hour challenging and entertaining more than 500 dairy producers at the Pennsylvania Dairy Summit on Feb. 8. He kept the audience on the edge of their seats as he wove strings of statistics and studies into a positive story for dairying.

I believe this is the best time ever to be in agriculture, he told the group. It is the best time ever to be alive.

Catlett is a futurist and was the regents professor in agricultural economics and agricultural business and Extension economics at New Mexico State University. He was also the dean for the universitys College Of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences.

Technology is changing how the world works, he said. Agriculture provides enough food for almost 9 billion people, something that was not thought possible back in the 1970s. Scientific breakthroughs continue to push the envelope.

Agriculture Secretary Russell Redding said 10 years ago it would have been hard to believe the production levels the state is achieving. Its brought some very real challenges. However, he said dairy farmers need to take the long view for success. We have come to the summit to move forward what to do differently to stay in this business.

You have to take the long view, Catlett reiterated. He compared different elements from the 1970s to today. His takeaway was the good old days were not as idyllic as envisioned.

He picked 1970 because it was the first time the U.S. economy hit $1 trillion in gross domestic product, one-fourth of the world economy. The United Kingdom was second. Global agriculture could not provide enough for every person to have 2,450 calories daily. A U.S. consumer spent 20 percent of their annual income on food and only ate away from home once a week. The world spent 60 percent to eat.

In 2014, the United States is still the leading global economy. The population doubled since the 70s, and there is a new economic power in the global marketplace.

Now, we produce 3,200 calories for every man, woman and child in the world, Catlett said, exceeding what the average person needs. Worries abound on how to feed nine billion in the future. The overwhelming question is can we feed nine billion people? Slam dunk, already done thank you American agriculture.

American families spend less on food today. You, because of your energy and efficiency, gave back the American people 10 percent of their income. and what did they do with it? They got weird.

Technology helped to push the needle. If farmers had not advanced, it would take an arable land mass the size of the United States, China and Canada combined to provide the same level of food.

The second largest economy today is China. The fastest growing economies are India and Vietnam, Catlett said. Abject poverty recorded the fastest drop in history, he shared. There are still too many, but its the fastest drop in recorded history and the trend continues to drop.

As economic conditions improve, peoples perceptions change. The luxury of one generation because a necessity of the next, he said. For example, previous generations considered a mobile phone as a luxury, today they are considered a necessity. Once you go up, you dont ever want to go down.

The needle is moving from substance to values of love and then acceptance. What the first thing we do at love and acceptance, we get pets, he said. Chinas pet population has exploded as the economy has improved. As those countries emerge and their economies improve, the first thing they change is their diets, he said. They begin to seek more meat-based protein. If the population trends hold, the world will have to double meat-based protein production.

It will not be done in pastoral agriculture, he said. It will be done by intensive animal operations. The efficiencies of input to output are better, and the physical health of the animal is far superior and the impact to the environment is far less.

Dairy producers cant forget they are also a part of the beef industry One out of every five pounds of beef is dairy. Dont tell me you are not in the beef business, he said. Beef demand could influence dairy breeding in the future as dairy cattle might have to return to a dual purpose.

Dairy farmers will have to think globally and locally. Catlett said there is a shortage of hops in the United States. Why? Its the craft beer industry. Artisan cheeses, buy local, organic and other unique enterprises are finding an opportunity.

We can feed a hungry world. And, (if) we can feed this beast, they have a lot of money, he said.

Technologys driving more than an agricultural revolution, its changing how people live their lives. Things are going SMACC. Everything is going to be social, mobile, analytics, cloud and cognition, he said. Things are now talking to things. That technology can be found in dairies to control the barn climate.

Presently, 99.9% of all things in the United States do not talk to each other. Get ready folks, theyre going to start talking to each other, he said.

Get ready for a revolution in agriculture folks, he said. You will own this new world, because it will be totally connected. Lowell Catlett

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Futurist believes dairy has a bright future - Lancaster Farming